Chris Butler
Postdoc at University of Antwerp researching how politicians perceive of, and respond to public opinion and how their backgrounds affect this. Previously worked in political campaigns.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerI see we are deep in discussion about how local by-election candidates are. Does it matter? Yes, it does (at least to voters), as I explain here: unherd.com/2024/06/why-...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerFascinating interview with Prof Will Jennings on his latest research into how people view their local area. He says people have pride in their areas but feel they have been left behind 👇
- Good morning! If you want to hear more about place, towns and high streets - and the findings from my recent report - this podcast with @andrewcities.bsky.social @centreforcities.bsky.social is now available to listen to...
- Reposted by Chris Butler
Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council. There is no excuse at all for publishing meaningless drivel like this. findoutnow.co.uk/blog/gorton-... - Reposted by Chris ButlerI understand Labour faces a largely hostile media environment, but its inability to make a big splash with genuinely positive news remains unfathomable. Like the Warm Homes Plan last week, this will make a big difference to the finances and lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
- Good news but slightly odd manner and timing of announcement? - in a video on tik tok, not made overnight to maximise press coverage, no supportive quotes www.gov.uk/government/n...
- No one tell @drjennings.bsky.social please
- Reposted by Chris Butler1) "when the issue was of less importance to politicians themselves, they assumed that voters were also less likely to care about it." 2) "when politicians acknowledged that voters disagreed with them on an issue, they were more likely to underestimate its importance." 👏@chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social
- Reposted by Chris ButlerWhy would you say this? It's not true!
- Did she say it? www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- High don’t knows = low salience issue
- From everything you have seen and heard about the issue, do you support or oppose the government's proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius? Support: 27% (+4 from May 2025) Oppose: 27% (-2) Don't know: 45% (-2) yougov.co.uk/topics/inter...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerI think the single most alarming thing about Trump's Greenland obsession is that the polling on it is *so* bad for him. It suggests an utter lack of the most important sort of constraint in a democracy - public support.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerSubtweet at half of this website: the consensus among contemporary historians is that the UK's actions in the late 1930s (rapid re-armament while diplomatically stalling for time) were reasonable in the context, with the genuine failure having been "not starting to re-arm five years before".
- Really pleased that @ecprtheloop.bsky.social have published my blog setting out my research around how well politicians understand which issues matter to voters, why they sometimes get it wrong, and how this misperceptions play out in real life decisions theloop.ecpr.eu/how-well-do-...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerNew report: Leaky Pipes - what we learned about where candidate donation data comes from research.mysociety.org/html/leaky-p...
- It's increasingly hard to tell the difference between the Traitors and UK politics
- Reposted by Chris ButlerI just saw someone use the term "slopulism" and it's a very good word. My proposed definition: "Junk policy aimed at populism-inclined voters which will go nowhere and achieve nothing but which strategists believe will win support."
- Not my survey (!) but grateful to the POLPOP team for collecting the data that allowed us to look at how well politicians understand the importance of different issues to voters
- 👨💻 In a piece based on @polbehavior.bsky.social research, @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social reports on his survey of politicians. 💡 He finds that while politicians do have reasonable understanding of which issues matter, they often make mistakes that have consequences for representation 👇 bit.ly/3KZhugI
- Reposted by Chris Butlerfwiw it’s been about six weeks since Trump pardoned the former president of Honduras who had been convicted of trafficking drugs into the US
- Reposted by Chris ButlerThere are lots of things you could say about this Government, but not being on the side of unionised workers is pretty out there to be honest. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerDenmark lost more troops per capita in the post 9/11 war on Afghanistan. Saying they “are not a good ally” because they won’t surrender their territories to the US is lunacy. We are betraying our allies to satisfy the whims of a would-be Emperor for whom the US is not enough.
- Reposted by Chris Butler🔔Job Alert 🔔 Thrilled to share that @stefaniebailer.bsky.social and I have been awarded 1.5 million CHF in SNSF funding for our new project: “Electoral choice: Which role does legislators’ quality play?” We’re recruiting 1 postdoc and 2 PhD candidates to join us in Basel and Geneva!
- Reposted by Chris ButlerMy favourite of my own papers is on this exact topic (should be free to read) www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
- Reposted by Chris Butler[This post could not be retrieved]
- A post likely to be printed off and hung up in Whips Offices 👇
- As it happens, the very first article in did in my @thehousemag.bsky.social column was on how rebelling does not help MPs. You rise or fall with the party. Working your butt off in the constituency might help a bit. Rebelling makes not a jot of difference. www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...
- Well quite www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerGreat culture can save lives. Literally. Amazing letter in today’s @thetimes.com about Tom Stoppard
- Reposted by Chris ButlerI imagine the obits will talk about Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, Leopoldstadt and Shakespeare in Love, God help us. But for my money Arcadia was his best play: elegant, profound, intelligent, humane and deeply moving. There really was no one else operating at his level.
- Super new research by the very talented @joshgoddard98.bsky.social on the link between housing tenure and voting 👇
- Really excited to share my new article published in @electoralstudies.bsky.social! 1/7
- Reposted by Chris ButlerLooking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
- Reposted by Chris Butler[This post could not be retrieved]
- In my inbox a conference invitation: “Battle for the soul of Europe” with a session titled ‘Remigration’ and speakers like Melanie Philips, Vaclav Klaus, Matt Goodwin and Viktor Orban’s political director. I’ll think I’ll pass thanks…
- Reposted by Chris ButlerI wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture. They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
- Reposted by Chris ButlerGiven the PM loves a flag-waving presser about something patriotic, i don't get why govt is not now in full 'launch an inquiry on foreign interference in UK politics' given this week we've had Nathan Gill jailed over Russian bribes, Chinese spies again, & this www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
- Reposted by Chris ButlerThis is one of the changes in the UK media landscape that should be more remarked on: the fact that being a very open, proud, outright racist is no longer a bar to being a pundit on some TV stations (in this case GBN and Talk TV).
- Reposted by Chris ButlerTypically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...
- Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
- Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
- We surveyed 866 politicians across 4 countries and asked them to estimate the proportion of voters and party supporters who expressed an opinion on various policies. We find that politicians routinely under-estimate the salience of policies to citizens, but more interestingly...
- Politicians are most likely to under-estimate the salience of a policy when doing so reduces their cognitive dissonance, either because they themselves think a policy is of less significance, or because they perceive their own positional preferences to be incongruent with citizens’ preferences
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View full threadFull paper with the great Julie Sevenans, @pbundi.bsky.social Fred Varone & Stefaan Walgrave here: rdcu.be/eQGm4. Huge thanks to the POLPOP team for collecting the data.
- www.dutchnews.nl/2025/11/danc... Fascinating read on the rightward turn of the VVD. Why have so many liberal parties headed to the right culturally in recent years (Ciudadanos, FDP)? Especially when it doesn’t seem to have worked out well for any of them.
- Sharp as ever from @philipjcowley.bsky.social but delightfully with added sass this week
- Something for the weekend? Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social article, on The Case of The Unknown Political Party... www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
- Reposted by Chris Butler“The irony is that where a trans kid can’t access a hormone blocker, an intersex child is operated on.” - Holly Greenberry-Pullen, intersex advocate.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerGood on Ed Davey – speaking up for and defending Britain’s institutions in the face of nefarious actors. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- The most ridiculous #traitors thing is Stephen Fry and David Olusoga mutually going “The traitors are playing a really clever game and you’re really clever so it must be you” without thinking “I’m really bad at this game & I’m conventionally clever so maybe a different kind of clever is traitorous”
- If David Olusoga gets this wrong tonight, will it be another nail in the coffin of academia’s reputation?
- During the reshuffle I read a lot of column inches about how Shabana Mahmood had impressed at Justice by making quick decisions and not generating negative headlines. Given what's transpired about mistakes with releasing prisoners, I wonder if that viewpoint is still widely shared?
- Reposted by Chris ButlerBBC News bulletins leading on the story of an Algerian man being mistakenly released by the prison service. Funnily enough I don't remember these cases ever leading the bulletins when an average of ten prisoners were mistakenly released a month in the final year of the last Government
- Reposted by Chris ButlerNotable in today's YouGov that the centre/left bloc - Lab/Green/LD/SNP are on 54%. With Reform/Tories on 43%. That's the biggest differential in a long time. I think useful to track blocs given instability between parties at the moment.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerStephen Bush on the extraordinary draft legislation which Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp, Matt Vickers, Katie Lam and backbench colleagues have proposed in parliament It is a proposal that would seek to deport around 5% of the resident population, including over a quarter of a million with ILR
- Perhaps a timely reminder of the work @drjennings.bsky.social & I did with Gerry Stoker showing that politicians in power are generally aware of people's low trust in the political system but unwilling to invest effort in trying to alleviate it doi.org/10.1177/0032...
- "You can legislate all you want, but these systems won't work unless people trust them" The information commissioner, John Edwards, today told MPs on the science, innovation & tech committee that the government's digital ID policy won't work without public trust, reports @matildamartin.bsky.social
- Reposted by Chris Butler"You can legislate all you want, but these systems won't work unless people trust them" The information commissioner, John Edwards, today told MPs on the science, innovation & tech committee that the government's digital ID policy won't work without public trust, reports @matildamartin.bsky.social
- Reposted by Chris ButlerIt's a remarkably persistent idea that loads of remaining Tories are just waiting to make the switch, but it's just not true. Just 1 in 8 still loyal Tories have an outright positive view of the Lib Dems or would consider voting for them. They're ideologically miles away from the Lib Dems.
- It's a day ending in a 'y' which means a French Prime Minister has resigned 🤷♂️
- Reposted by Chris Butler[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Chris ButlerKind of feels like a big deal that a Reform/Brexit Party former MEP has been convicted of taking bribes to promote Russian interests in Ukraine, and it feels like a bigger deal that this isn’t being treated as the major scandal that it clearly is.
- Reposted by Chris Butler
- Reposted by Chris ButlerAll is not well in ‘Your Party’. Note the absence of Zarah Sultana’s name at the bottom of this statement
- Very thought provoking article from Steve Richards arguing that Starmer over-corrected after Hartlepool www.newstatesman.com/uncategorize...
- Reposted by Chris Butler[me, a journalist who spends all day every day on a social media app where the discovery algorithm is personally controlled by its owner, captain birdseye] you know, a lot of people are talking about fish fingers, we should probably cover that
- Reposted by Chris ButlerElon Musk openly called for violence on our streets yesterday. I hope politicians from all parties come together to condemn his deeply dangerous and irresponsible rhetoric. Britain must stand united against this clear attempt to undermine our democracy.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerAs it happens I think it's downstream of Labour in opposition, which took the view that public and press opinion were immutable and so trying to win arguments, rather than side-step them, was futile. But if it that was true in opposition it certainly isn't true in government.
- We need to see more of this from progressive MPs.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerGovt should take this message seriously. The far right, backed by the world's richest man, is actively stoking racial & political violence. Staying quiet, flattering them, saying "we hear you" won't work. Stand up for decency, for respect, for the best of modern Britain or watch those things burn
- Reposted by Chris ButlerIt is absurd how little consequence we are letting Musk’s rhetoric and politics have. Every time we ignore it and pretend it will go away it gets worse.
- Perhaps the British media might like to give this story some prominence
- If he’d help off on the reshuffle for a few days he could have made David Lammy Ambassador to the US
- Reposted by Chris ButlerMore extraordinary still is the sanitising of Kirk's politics. Kirk was - and this is just a straightforwardly factual statement - a far right activist. And here's a former British Prime Minister not merely mourning his death or condemning his murder but actively *praising* his politics.
- Reposted by Chris ButlerHonestly, it is absurd to publish a league table with confidence intervals so wide that a single trust could be in either the top 10 or bottom 10
- Interigued to hear Deputy Leadership contenders and others accuse Labour leadership of being too London centric. They're not exactly appealing to London voters by chasing after Farage! But perhaps the accusation is that a London leadership has a warped sense of how to win votes outside the capital
- Reposted by Chris ButlerMy hunch is that if Zack Polanski's Greens or the Corbyn Party were platforming quite this level of crank madness about cancer in the Royal Family, they would get quite a lot of heat for doing so
- Indeed Gordon Brown refused to appoint Harriet Harman DPM and appointed Mandelson as First Secretary of State instead
- Reposted by Chris ButlerAs Housing Secretary, Rayner should have sought expert tax advice on her home. But unlike some of her critics, she didn't use tax-avoidance schemes to drive down her taxes. She didn't hide her money in offshore accounts, or threaten to sue whistleblowers. Those are much more noxious problems.
- Really intellectually invigorated (and a tad exhausted) after @ecpr.bsky.social Great conference full of interesting papers and researchers. Particular thanks to the @ecpr-elites.bsky.social group for organising some great panels. Now to find some ouzo…
- Reposted by Chris ButlerImagine if the Green Party got a front page headline every day to warn that climate change is ultimately bad news or the Lib dems got one to point out the long term crisis in social care funding
- This is why the pledge to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels has always struck me as daft. The reason so many Brits can’t afford holidays is down to general cost of living. Increasing the demand on the already broken housing market may only make that worse and create more resentment.
- Reposted by Chris Butler“If I said I was wearing a Palestine Action T-shirt would you get here quicker?” From the new Private Eye, in shops now.
- What a joy to start the week with the discovery that the university's travel partner failed to book my flight to a conference.... It's so efficient this delegation!
