Daniel Wincott
Academic @walesgovernance.bsky.social (Wales Governance Centre) and Cardiff University’s School of Law and Politics.
- Eluned Morgan held back from saying Starmer was a good leader on R4 Today this AM (‘he’s not on the ballot paper’). But she was much less critical of Westminster Labour on funding + devolving rail and justice than at IfG six days ago. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/conver...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottWith only a few months to go until polling day, this is a decent scene setter of the electoral headwinds facing Welsh Labour ahead of May’s #Senedd elections and the prospects of Plaid & Reform coming ahead of them - featuring analysis from @jaclarner.bsky.social & @lauramcallister30.bsky.social
- Strongly agree with @richardwynjones.bsky.social recommendation. Should the value and limits of devolved competence for HE in Wales. I’d extend it - this text is also invaluable for anyone interested in England’s universities and HE system.
- Hanfodol i bawb sydd hefo ddiddoreb mewn addysg yng Nghymru - yn wir, i bawb hefo diddordeb yn ein dyfodol fel cenedl. Essential reading for anyone interested in education in Wales or, indeed, the country’s future more generally. wonkhe.com/blogs/welsh-...
- Share a photograph of a mountain you’ve taken
- Reposted by Daniel WincottNew Year Pop Quiz: Which of the 6 million + people with EU Settlement Scheme status has documentary confirmation that they are residing on the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement? Astonishingly, the UK government's position appears to be: none of them. But wasn’t that the whole point of the EUSS?
- Reposted by Daniel WincottThis is a bit of a classic. It's originally about the problems of organising progressive political movements, but has within it a very smart implicit critique of politics since the 1980s. www.jofreeman.com/joreen/tyran...
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott“He foisted on Wales the worst Secretary of State since John Redwood. Jo Stevens appears clueless about the country whose name features on her office’s brass plate” - 👀
- It may be that time’s up anyway, but Labour’s doing everything it can to lose the next Senedd election. Bored, undermined, divided, Labour has pointed the aircraft’s nose towards the ground and activated the autopilot ✍️Desmond Clifford wp.me/p8Mk4U-1bFu
- Oofff! Plain speaking about Labour and Wales.
- It may be that time’s up anyway, but Labour’s doing everything it can to lose the next Senedd election. Bored, undermined, divided, Labour has pointed the aircraft’s nose towards the ground and activated the autopilot ✍️Desmond Clifford wp.me/p8Mk4U-1bFu
- Fascinating contrast between Senedd and Westminster voting intentions in Wales. Westminster, where FPTP should create incentives for tactical voting, shows the Welsh/Left bloc fragmented. Reform has consolidated the British/Right bloc, so could to clean up Westminster seats in Wales at a UK GE.
- Bwriadau pleidleisio San Steffan / Westminster Voting Intention (YouGov) / (28/11 - 10/12) - nid MRP/not MRP method REF: 30% PC: 19% LLAF/LAB: 15% GWYRDD/GRN: 14% CEID/CON: 13% DEM RHYDD/LD: 8% ERAILL/OTH: 2% N = 1,954 Ein dadansoddiad ni / Analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottFor those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottIn a multi-party system it's all about bloc politics...
- 🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Wish I could have been there for what looks like an essential event for anyone interested in understanding 1) Northern Ireland 2) the UK Union. You can read the report - written by the leading experts on these matters - here: nihrc.org/publication/...
- 👀👀👀age profile of party support! @willhaycardiff.bsky.social thread digging into the @walesgovernance.bsky.social poll. Could change as people get older, of course. But underscores that ‘muscular unionism’ is somewhere between a self-limiting and self-defeating politics outside England.
- 👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottBwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12) PC: 33% REF: 30% LLAF/LAB: 10% CEID/CON: 10% GWYRDD/GRN: 9% DEM RHYDD/LD: 6% ERAILL/OTH: 2% N=1,891 Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott🚨Final YouGov/Cardiff University Senedd Vote Intention opinion polling of 2025 to be published Wednesday morning🚨 🚨Arolwg barn terfynol YouGov/Prifysgol Caerdydd ar gyfer 2025 - Bwriad Pleidleisio Senedd i'w gyhoeddi fore Mercher🚨
- Reposted by Daniel WincottNEWYDD: Dadansoddiad newydd gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y cytundeb cyllidebol rhwng Llywodraeth Cymru a Phlaid Cymru: NEW: New analysis from the Wales Fiscal Analysis on the Welsh Governmentt - Plaid Cymru Budget Deal: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottMae'r recordiad o'n Darlith Flynyddol 2025 gan Yr Athro Syr John Curtice, Prifysgol Ystrad Clud, nawr ar gael ar YouTube The recording ofour 2025 Annual Lecture by Prof. Sir John Curtice of @unistrathclyde.bsky.social is now on YouTube 👇 'Can Devolution Survive the UK's New Politics?' #Senedd26
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- Reposted by Daniel WincottIs welfare spending ''out of control''? It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year. That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u
- Reposted by Daniel WincottMe @ruthhoughton.bsky.social & Cher Weixia Chen co-edited a Handbook on Global Governance 📔 Some amazing scholars critically think what “global” & “governance” mean in & how ideologies shape institutions & frameworks that claim to address global challenges 1/4 www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/res...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottThis 👇 Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities. Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott“The glaring weaknesses of prisoners’ Welsh language rights also demand fresh consideration of the anomalous constitutional arrangements governing prisons in Wales. The only common law country in the world to have its own legislature and executive without its own justice system.” 1/2
- Reposted by Daniel WincottGood journals are swamped with this stuff and lower tier journals struggle to get reviewers who can see through the methods section It gets cited (a lot!) so editors who should know better let it through.
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott🙋♀️ @paulnightingale.bsky.social me too! I call it: "The "Nexus" Nexus" 😅 Recipe 🟢 Pick 1 econ var 🟢 Pick 2+ "green" vars 🟢 Pick 3+ methods (unit root, cointegration, Granger causality, GMM, ECM, FMOLS, PMG, PVAR, wavelet) 🟢 Misinterpret results 🟢 Make absurd policy recommendations Rinse & repeat!
- Not the main point here, but I’m struck by this use of ‘policy wonk’ language.
- Reposted by Daniel WincottNEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottYn cynnwys ymchwil gan @jaclarner.bsky.social / Including research from Dr Jac Larner: #Senedd26 #Cymru #Wales www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politic...
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
- NEW - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess
- There is an important debate on the left about whether describing ‘Britain’ as ‘broken’ feeds the far(ageist) right. Folk need to take account of such prosaic realities as the longer term hollowing out of local govt capacity.
- Come to find out how Gwyn Alf Williams and Tommy Cooper can both be quoted in one blog. Stay for excellent analysis of what the Caerphilly result might mean for Welsh Labour (the most successful political party in democratic history).
- New blog Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
- Reposted by Daniel WincottI wonder if the people proposing this strategy have encountered the Brexit referendum, in which a government tried to stop an insurgent, Faragist movement focused on immigration by talking exclusively about economic risk.
- Emily Maitlis saying the quiet part out loud about Monarchy and the enforcement of the law. She said, in effect, that now Andrew is no longer a Prince, he can be investigated by the police in broadly the same way as ordinary people. (Radio 4 PM)
- Reposted by Daniel WincottNEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
- A devolved election in Wales is featuring prominently in UK-wide media. I wonder if a note has gone out to BBC English language journals not to say the word Senedd? The ‘Welsh Parliament’ , its ’official title’ in English, has more syllables. It’s ‘commonly known as the Senedd’. senedd.wales
- Quite right on the Westminster reporters caravan. But the underlying article is painfully miscuing its readers. As well as ignoring the Senedd election, drawing the conclusion that the next UK election will be a Labour-Reform contest is to turn your back to the future.
- "Yet even once it became clear that Reform had actually lost, the script barely changed. Footage from the result showed the visiting caravan of Westminster-based journalists crowded around the losing Reform candidate" bylinetimes.com/2025/10/24/t...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottMy take on the Caerffili by-election and the political state of play six months from the Senedd election: www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottOh for f**k's sake, we would never have hyped a Caerphilly by-election if Reform weren't going to win it 🤣🤣 (h/t @richardwynjones.bsky.social ) www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/oh-...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottTickets for Reform's UK's Welsh victory event are still available to buy online with Caerphilly by-election candidate Llŷr Powell booked as a guest speaker along with Lee Anderson who was active throughout the party's failed campaign ✍️ Emily Price
- Remarkable victory for Plaid Cymru. Expect lots of attention (rightly) on Labour’s collapse to 11% of the vote. How much attention will the Conservatives get for their 2%?
- Reposted by Daniel WincottCoverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott@electoralstudies.bsky.social If you’re interested in academic studies of political polarisation we have loads of great papers at Electoral Studies. Check out this one by Joseph Phillips www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottHMP Berwyn, the UK's largest prison, was once presented as an advance for the Welsh language. @robdjones.bsky.social and I argue that it’s been a categorical failure by that measure, posing troubling questions for Welsh language rights more widely: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottI‘m giving a public talk at UCL on Thurs 16 Oct. The title is “Bureaucracy and distrust: the civil service in the constitution” looking at the civil service’s constitutional foundations, and how it might respond to a populist govt. @sirJJkc.bsky.social will chair! www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/events/...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottWhich reminds me of Nightingale's first law of science policy "Fund more history"
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott📢ICON GBIE, TRICON, QUB Webinar: Familiarity, Culture & Expertise: The Future of Referendums in Ireland & the UK Oct 17th 10:00-13:00 Online To register follow the link below: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/0d55a0... 1/3 👇
- Reposted by Daniel WincottAmong other posts in an excellent thread, this is one that resonates here in Wales, with our national election on the horizon next May. Labour in Wales has been talking about voters going to Reform for a long time, whereas pollsters have been highlighting that any Labour-Ref switchers are long gone
- Or were once left leaning. It seems to me that some (but only some) UK university leaders come to believe what they used to critique. They almost to treat their own earlier academic work as a mirror-image playbook.
- What would a critic of Oxford PPE write as parody of a rushed tutorial essay?
- Britain’s zombie universities should put Schumpeter on the syllabus on.ft.com/46tIQC1 | opinion
- Unscramble these eggs
- Great. Let’s keep power as centralised as possible. That’ll work well if Farage become PM.
- NEW: Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane tells @politicshome.bsky.social he thinks the government is getting “cold feet” about strengthening regional devolution “Two Reform mayors play into that. A Labour mayor on manoeuvres plays into that too."
- Reposted by Daniel WincottLabour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
- No wonder Farage quit worrying and learned to love FPTP
- Reposted by Daniel WincottLatest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
- Reposted by Daniel WincottTo put the 14% in perspective it would not just be Labour's worst performance in Wales since it supplanted the Liberals in 1922, but its lowest vote share at any national election in Wales since 1906 (when it only contested a handful of seats due to the Gladstone-MacDonald pact) #senedd #devolution
- Oof. Welsh Labour hopes for benefits flowing from partnership with a Labour government have, it seems, been dashed. Is anyone in the UK party thinking about the medium term consequences of Labour losing Wales?
- Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
- Reposted by Daniel WincottWhat Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
- Reposted by Daniel Wincott‘I was there. I kept the receipts. I remember how normalized the sexual exploitation of teenage girls and even tweens by adult men was, how it showed up in movies, in the tales of rock stars and “baby groupies”’ Powerful piece from @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- Reposted by Daniel WincottIts correct to call Robinson’s rally larger than any far right rally in history. 3/4 of people on it would say it was not far right, and would deny racism About 1/4 on it may be happy to own racism The ostensibly moderate/peaceful frame is one reason it can go wider than Mosley or Britain First
- Reposted by Daniel WincottI’ve looked into this now. I can’t find an example of a far right march or rally attracting much more than 10,000. A far right march on this scale is completely new for the UK.
- A moving tribute.
- Reposted by Daniel WincottSiaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur: Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:
- I’m old enough to remember when Farage railed against the inequity of FPTP www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
- Apocalypse Now as an aspiration for the US? If this stuff wasn’t so far beyond the possibility of parody, I’d think some folk in his administration were trying to undermine Trump.
- Fascinating stuff. Cardiff is in the analysis, but not discussed directly in the text. The report shows its a place for which higher education is critical to the city’s economy. Makes the Welsh Govt’s largely hands off approach to retrenchment and downsizing at Cardiff Uni all the more baffling. 1/3
- 🎓In ‘university towns’ students make up more than 10 per cent of the local population In this context, our latest briefing sets out the role universities play in the local economies of different cities across the UK. Read more 👇 buff.ly/qhkNzSi
- The report classifies Cardiff as a University town, not a big city. The city is 4th for student population share and 8th for staff share of city employment. University admin choices will be huge economically for Cardiff. (HE seems much less important, proportionately, in Swansea.) 2/3
- I guess because it’s from @centreforcities.bsky.social, the report doesn’t engage with campuses in very small places, so the implications for Aber and Bangor (or, say, Lancaster) are not considered. 3/3
- Reposted by Daniel WincottFor years, Nigel Farage has thrived on grievance politics. But why do his “solutions” never solve the problems – and why do voters keep feeling aggrieved? A view by Prof Ailsa Henderson and Prof Richard Wyn-Jones. From #TheConversation -- thanks!
- Reposted by Daniel WincottThis. I think it's vital to appreciate that the Parliament which originally claimed sovereignty is not the same institution anymore. And that there is no conceivable way of going back to that institution without making governance dreadfully inefficient in the 21st c. So reform must lie elsewhere.
- Crucial stuff from @robertsaunders.bsky.social The tendency of judges to cite Dicey as an unchanging point of reference (esp in Brexit cases) contributes significantly to this misunderstanding.
- Before the Brexit referendum several senior judges gave regular lectures in a post-Dicey post-sovereigntist vein.
- Also counter-arguments against Dicey dominated academic debate between around 1930 and (at least) the start of the 1960s. Ironically, parliamentary sovereignty language may have revived with debates about the UK joining the EEC (thinking of the textbook by de Smith)
- The Union Survey: tracking English political attitudes for 15 years (long hard work excavating these issues from sedimented assumptions about ‘British’ politics). Here’s hoping folk pay attention now English grievance is ubiquitous on the surface of the political news. @theunionsurvey.bsky.social
- Fantastic new article by @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & @richardwynjones.bsky.social on the @uk.theconversation.com. "...UK governments find it easier to address Farage’s successive foreigner problems than to look at their own role in stoking English grievance." theconversation.com/nigel-farage...
