Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc. Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.

Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour! These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option

The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform. Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.

In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them. Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses). Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿