Vikki Thompson
Climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh.
Researching weather and climate extremes.
Climate modelling, statistics, attribution.
- ⚡9 days left to submit your #EGU26 abstract, if you work on weather and climate hazards consider our session: www.egu26.eu/session/56049 @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social @regclimo.bsky.social
- Where have the greatest humid heat extremes been observed? Where is statistically likely to see unprecedented extremes? New study led by @regclimo.bsky.social investigates:
- What do we talk about when we talk about unprecedentedness? Without a clear baseline, understanding & preparedness for climate extremes may be out of whack. We sought to improve this for humid heat in our new paper out now in @aguadvances.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
- Can simple circulation analogues detect observed changes in extreme rainfall? In many cases, no. Rainfall is too complex and circulation alone cannot predict it. 🧵1/2 🌧️ New paper 🌧️ iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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View full threadHi Vikki, sounds like a super interesting paper! Is this a matter of scale, would knowledge of more local scale circulation or vertical motion do a better job?
- On a smaller spatial scale analogues would likely be more similar in terms of impacts - as long as good enough analogues exist. Including more/better key circulation features also helps - as nicely shown by @jriboldi.bsky.social in egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
- But circulation analogues are still useful - they can assess changes in large-scale dynamics of similar events. And we have other methods - such as storylines - which are more suited to assessing changes in rainfall intensity of extreme events. 🧵2/2
- Looking for a #PhD in #ClimateExtremes? We are advertising a project attributing causes of recent #droughts using counter-factual storylines. Based in #Edinburgh, working with Andrew Schurer, me, @gabihegerl.bsky.social, & @edhawkins.org tinyurl.com/5n7b52fr
- ☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....
- 👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26! 🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social
- Experiencing extreme heat first hand today in Cantabria, and the 5 year old is enjoying quizzing me on a topic I am happy to discuss in detail - but I'm not sure if these could be fire clouds on the horizon?
- This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴♂️
- 📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...
- With coauthors @hancloke.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social Dim Coumou, Urs Beyerle, & Joy Ommer @knmi.nl
- Last night, for the second night running, temperatures didn't drop below 20°C in Utrecht 🇳🇱. 🥵🌃🌡️ Due to human activity the chances of such heat are increasing, taking us ever closer to the story told in: www.unseenheat.com @stichtingcas.bsky.social @timokelder.bsky.social
- 🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.
- #ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt. Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.
- 🌧️🌍💧 Our new paper, led by Geert Lenderink, shows recent European extreme rainfall events have localised climate change responses beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate – potentially enhancing flash floods in a warmer climate. Read it here: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa... @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social
- After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!
- Happening now in 1.31/32 🟩 @egu.eu our session on ‘Future changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World’ co-convened with @raedhamed.bsky.social @vikkithompson.bsky.social @tamarahappe.bsky.social @eunicelo.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at Also join us at the posters at X3 🟪 at 16:15.
- Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43
- If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social
- Today we present an online tool for identifying circulation analogues, now available on Climate Explorer. I'll be at my #EGU25 poster, at X5.171, from 1615 (or after 1800 with my small assistant). climexp.knmi.nl/analoguesfor...
- At #EGU25 this morning, hear me talk about ensemble boosting of extreme rainfall using only the thousand most common English words - PICO spot 3 at 11.08
- I'm at #EGU25 this week, and today at 1400 I'll be discussing the western European July 2021 extreme rain in this session:
- #EGU25 is about to start! If you're there, check out our session on High-impact Climate Extremes on Tuesday, room 🟨 F1 🧪: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... With many exciting talks, including the CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture by @kornhuber.bsky.social
- Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods. meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... @marylouathanase.bsky.social
- Super excited to be presenting our ensemble boosting work, 'Imagine rain falling in a different place', in this session:
- Once again, I am taking my daughter to #EGU25. She has been busy making extreme weather posters 'just like mama'. Any other (ideally english/dutch speaking) ~5 yr olds booked into the childcare, who might fancy some lunchtime picnics?
- Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social
- Enjoyed being involved in this new perspective led by @timokelder.bsky.social, where we show the value of using multiple lines of evidence to assess plausible yet unprecedented extreme events that we need to be preparing for 🌍🌧️🌀🌡️
- 1/ How to Stop Being Surprised by Unprecedented Weather Our new @naturecomms.bsky.social paper provides our multi-author perspective on methods to anticipate extreme weather and reduce impacts, shifting from reacting with surprise towards resilience. 🔗 Read it here: doi.org/10.1038/s414... 🧵⬇️
- Perhaps a clue to understanding possible changes in Santa Ana winds that helped drive this January's Californian wildfires:
- New paper! Chris O'Reilly and I looked at recent trends in the wintertime North Pacific jet stream - Has climate change shifted the jet? - Can models capture these recent trends? - How has this affected North American weather? doi.org/10.1029/2024... 🧵
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- Hi Nat, the report does identify an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of the observed pattern - work to understand why and model assessment to attribute that trend is now ongoing. Would love to hear further ideas of what could be done!
- In @wwattribution.bsky.social report on the LA wildfires this January we show the frequency and intensity of the atmospheric circulation of the event has increased in winter, raising the risk of weather conditions that drive the spread of wildfire. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
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- Ooh, that looks very useful! We haven't looked for a 'why' yet but this looks like it'll be at least part of the answer. Have you checked it out in models too?
- The most similar events show a more intense cut-off low, which strengthens the Santa Ana winds. Whether this trend is attributable to climate change needs further research, but other evidence in the report shows climate change has increased extreme fire weather conditions.
- This week at school Fritha is learning about polar animals... 'Mama and Dada have seen penguins in the wild, but only Dada has seen polar bears'. Perhaps not what her teacher expected!
- Congratulations to @raedhamed.bsky.social for successfully defending his PhD! He carried out important research on the impacts of compound weather events on crop yields, looking forward to seeing the next stages of his research 🌽☀️🫘🌧️
- Wildfires aren’t a problem in the UK, right? Wrong. Not on the same scale as we are seeing in LA, but there are thousands of wildfires every year in the UK. In the heatwave of July 2022 wildfires broke out in London. Our new paper explores the risks: doi.org/10.1002/cli2...
- We show fire weather – that is the meteorological conditions conducive to wildfires spreading – is increasing in the SE England. With climate projections showing rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall in summer, this trend is likely to continue.
- Thanks to coauthors @climatedann.bsky.social @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @nathanaelmelia.bsky.social Nick Dunstone and Gillian Kay. @cabot-institute.bsky.social @knmi.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social
- 🌍🔥🌧️🌡️🌀 One week left to submit #EGU25 abstracts 🌀🌡️🌧️🔥🌍 Join our session on future weather and climate hazards! Featuring talks from Aglaé Jézéquel & Dominik Schumacher meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...
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- A quick check of the frequency of events similar to Feb 2020 event suggests 1973 could have been quite wet... the flow data doesn't seem to go back far enough for the Wye. Do you know if it was a notable year? I find an increase in frequency (but not intensity) of Storm Dennis-like storms since 1950
- It could be interesting to see if there is a detectable change in the weather dynamics causing the Wye floods - which is what I've recently been doing for larger scale European floods. Would any of those big Wye floods be a more obvious candidate to check?
- I tried to prepare a starter pack on climate, weather and hydrological extremes. Please let me know if you would like to be added, the more the merrier! go.bsky.app/86zAwyHat://did:plc:al3mrgr2igqnqhdkqvdwouev/app.bsky.graph.starterpack/3lartbld3i52d
- Thanks for making these, if you haven't got to capacity could you add me please?
- #StormBert is bringing strong winds, rain, and snow to parts of Ireland and the UK over the weekend. Similar events have happened before, such as Storm Diana in 2018, but... (1/2)
- ...there is evidence that storms similar to #StormBert, identified by surface pressure patterns, are becoming more common. Taking the top 5% most similar days there is an increase of 0.05 events/year (or 1 extra events annually every 20 years). (2/2)
- Hi Bluesky, I've come over here to share our #EGU25 session. Are you researching weather and climate hazards? Submit an abstract to tell us about it! @tamarahappe.bsky.social @eunicelo.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social
