Rainfall distribution has been very uneven over the last week. Some SW parts have seen well over 100mm, while central areas very little if any.
After a few more unsettled days (where rain will mainly fall over the same areas) it’s likely to turn much drier again till month end.
The acceleration of heating is very worrying.
If you calculated when the 1.5° target will be breached on a 30 year trend in 2005 it would have been 2040.
If you project it from current trend it will be over 10 years earlier in 2029.
apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-tempe...Unusually, January was colder than average, when compared to the last 30 year climate.
However, it would have been entirely normal if we compare it with 1961-90 values.
Shows how fast things are changing.
Met Office three month outlook suggesting a considerably greater chance than normal of mild, wet and windy conditions to dominate, particularly during February & March.
Impacts from successive Atlantic storms more likely than normal.
The chances of limiting global heating to 1.5° died years ago.
If we wait until the official definition of 1.5° averaged over 30 years to be reached before taking meaningful action we’ll see individual years of 2-3°. Which is catastrophic.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Rise in carbon dioxide off track for limiting global warming to 1.5°C
The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is now incompatible with IPCC pathways which remain below 1.5°C, a Met Office study finds.
Another very decent day above the freezing fog on the Malverns.
Fog level was considerably lower than the December display - around 140m today, 350m in December.
Very timely study published today on the increase in whiplash climate events as a result of global heating.
These are rapid transitions from drought to flood and vice versa. They’ve already increased by 50% and projected to double in future.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...Floodwater rapidly turning to ice in Worcester
Worcester’s new Kepax Bridge is magnificent.
4th large flood of the season today in Worcester.
One of those special days on the Malvern Hills.
Temperature inversion and fog.
Some remarkable sights on the Malverns this afternoon.
When I was there inversion level was about 350 metres. Photo taken on top of Pinnacle Hill at 357m and the only thing poking out of the fog south of the Wyche Cutting.
5°C in the fog, I reckon 12°C above it.
Very nice Worcestershire sunset as the mist was rising
2024 saw multiple heat and rainfall records across the UK as the atmosphere continues to warm primarily due to human carbon emissions.
2025 will undoubtedly see more.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2024/re...A recent report by @WildJustice_org suggests that developers aren’t delivering promised environmental outcomes on new developments.
wildjustice.org.uk/general/lost-n…
So I thought I’d put it to the test on a newish housing site close to me.
A 🧵
Huge areas of agricultural land are at risk of flooding from rivers & sea, with 60% of grade 1 land at risk.
Amount of land and frequency will increase due to climate change.
We can’t afford to protect all homes from flooding, let alone farmland.
Difficult decisions ahead.
Here’s an interesting one.
We’ve seen a very large increase in the last 5 years of big floods on the Wye, Teme and lower Severn
No such increase on neighbouring Avon - only 2 really big floods in 50 years
I suspect it may be due to the different weather setup needed to produce floods on the Avon.
Major floods on the Severn, Teme & Wye
Updated in light of another big one on the Wye last week.
Current 5 year period 3x more than any previous period in last 30 years.
We can either hope it goes away or start adapting. Fast.
Gosh - just checked on here and nearly a thousand folk have chosen to follow me.
So I feel obliged to post a bit!
Twitter will still be my main platform but I’ll do a bit here and try to answer questions ( I’m assured it’s a less confrontational place!)
