Turkey is navigating its role in legitimizing the sovereignty of the new HTS-led Syrian interim government, but it remains cautious. This is due to the fears that the HTS will get out of hand, which could jeopardize Ankara’s relations with the EU and the US. 🧵 1/
Dec 14, 2024 11:29A symbolic move: Turkey's intel chief İbrahim Kalın visited Damascus, even praying at the Umayyad Mosque. This rare spotlight on MIT highlights its dominance in Turkey’s Syria operations and signals that Turkey is pulling the strings. 2/
Yet, Turkey’s might also has its limits. Ankara is reopening its embassy in Damascus but only at the chargé d'affaires level, not with a full ambassador. This signals hesitation over the international recognition of the interim government. 3/
Turkey is undoubtedly the most dominant player in post-Assad Syria, but it’s walking a tightrope. It lacks full control over how the new government will evolve. A misstep could derail its efforts to mend ties with the West - critical amidst an economic crisis. 4/
Syria is thus a balancing act for Ankara: asserting influence and avoiding alienation. Whether Turkey can reach its goals depends on a number of factors and time will tell its success. 5/
