So, this is making the rounds and really -- desparately -- needs to be clarified. The TL;DR is this: Polls don't measure shifts in opinion so much as shifts in context. news.gallup.com/poll/693203/... (A brief 🧵) /1

On the face of it, this survey shows about 2/3 of Ukrainians saying they think Ukraine should negotiate an end to the war ASAP, with the remainder thinking it should fight on. Two years ago, the numbers were reversed. But that doesn't mean what the headline says it means. /2

While a genuine deal is still ephemeral, Ukrainians are aware that one may emerge, and potentially one that would allow them to rebuild their defenses. That fundamentally different context means it's a fundamentally different question. /4

To put it another way, question isn't really about whether Ukrainians want to negotiate or fight. It's about whether Ukrainians think a deal is possible. In 2023, for good reasons, they didn't. In 2025, for equally good reasons, they do. /5

The availability of a deal, of course, isn't the only context that matters. Attrition, mounting casualties, and the inconsistency of American support matter, too. In 2023, the idea that the US would abandon Ukraine seemed unimaginable. In 2025, it seems almost inevitable. /6

But to suggest that these data reflect a "collapse" in Ukrainian morale would be a misinterpretation built on a basic misunderstanding of what polls actually measure: not deeply held convictions, but situational answers to over-simplified questions in an awkward context. /7