Philip A. Luck
Director of Economics Program and Scholl Chair of International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Writing and thinking about all things economics, technology, and strategic policy. All opinions are my own.
- Reposted by Philip A. LuckPage One. @wsj.com
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- Reposted by Philip A. LuckThe Minneapolis protester fatally shot by a federal officer was 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti, his parents say.
- A country is more than its laws or status; it’s how it acts & how its people respond when those laws are violated. Americans have a duty to stand against cruelty and injustice, showing the world we are worthy of leading and protecting the global community. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/us...
- Truly horrific wapo.st/45VMjKe
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- Live now! Tune in!
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- Today on The Trade Guys: Is globalization dead? Spoiler alert— youtu.be/da3tsiz8hg8?...
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- The longer the US-China trade war goes on, the more US farmers will suffer and the more it will cost every American to bail them out. We are in the middle of the normal harvest/export season for soybeans. The clock is ticking. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=porc...
- U.S. farmers are bearing the brunt of China's retaliatory trade policies. Our research shows how the trade war between the U.S. and China is impacting U.S. farmers caught in the crossfire. youtube.com/watch?v=porc... @csis.org
- We’re now in the heart of harvest season — but for many U.S. farmers, the outlook is grim. China hasn’t purchased U.S. soybeans since May and total U.S. agriculteral export to China are down 73% since January. Unless sales rebound soon, American producers face devastating revenue losses. @csis.org
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- Reposted by Philip A. LuckThe 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.
- Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.
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- Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...
- The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
- The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...
- Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org
- Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.
- Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...
- Trump’s trade strategy is taking shape— EU deal adds to a flurry of new frameworks. New analysis w/ Ina Simonovska. Uniform tariffs could raise U.S. GDP by 2.2%. Retaliation could cut it by 5.3%. The admin must design policy carefully to avoid self-harm: www.csis.org/analysis/tru...
- 🚨 We're hiring! The @CSIS Economics Program is looking for a paid Fall 2025 intern in DC. Great chance to work on trade, tech, and economic security issues at the heart of U.S. strategy. Apply by Aug 9 👉 careers.csis.org/opportunitie... #EconTwitter #PolicyJobs #Internship
- Honored to join #LesRencontresEconomiques to discuss immigration—its economic realities and the enduring political appeal of denying them. Durable myths fuel polarization and stall the policies we need for broad-based growth. My essay for the event: www.lesrencontreseconomiques.fr/en/debats-id...
- LFG!
- Surprised I can still be surprised, but seriously WTF…
- This is the news I need.
- The ethane export controls reveal a troubling pattern: assumption-based policymaking without rigorous analysis. Before weaponizing trade, the US must do cost-benefit analysis. Economic statecraft requires forethought, not improvisation. 🧵👇 My latest @CSIS analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/eth...
- 🛑 Who really writes U.S. trade rules—the president or Congress? CSIS breaks down a pivotal court ruling that may reshape the balance of power in U.S. trade policy. A must-read question piece: www.csis.org/analysis/wha...
- Random Friday Thought: New socks are amazing and highly underrated. If socially acceptable, I would make socks a one and done clothing item.
- Worried about seemingly ever growing tensions between the US and PRC? You should be.
- The U.S. faces a credibility test as its debt challenges mount. Moody’s downgrade is more than symbolic. Today, the US spends about the same amount on defence as on interest payments on its debt. Dive into the CSIS analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/moo... @csis.org
- See my first piece in @lawfaremedia.org 👇
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- This administration should start considering the consumer.
- 😑
- Really fun conversation with the brilliant Scott Kennedy.
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- Tariff rollbacks mark a welcome step that could help ease inflation and bolster economic prospects, but do not undo the damage already done by elevated costs, disrupted supply chains, heightened uncertainty, and weakened U.S. credibility with allies. www.csis.org/analysis/und...
- It’s official: the U.S. economy shrank in Q1 2025. For context—Q4 2024 growth was 2.4%. Trump was inaugurated about a third of the way through Q1. And ‘liberation day’? That came in Q2...buckle up. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/b...
- At least three citizens under the age of 10 have been deported from the U.S. without due process. This should shock everyone, regardless of how you feel about any particular immigration policy. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
- Without due process, the administration has now deported multiple U.S. citizens. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/u...
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- As tensions between the US and PRC rise, we don’t just risk higher prices on imported goods. PRC export controls on critical minerals are part of a broader competition over the rules that govern trade in critical goods. www.csis.org/analysis/hid...
- Excellent work by @washingtonpost.com. Tariffs are not only still high, the effective tariff rate is actually *higher*
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- When you’re wrong on the facts and an asshole all at the same time. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
- There is plenty of uncertainty about what tariff rates will look like tomorrow. But one thing is clear; uncertainty will remain high and will harm the U.S. and global economy. www.csis.org/analysis/unc... @csis.org
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- Today in Nobody Wins a Trade War: nypost.com/2025/03/15/w...
- Once again trade helps us solve problems caused by policy incompetence at home. Just like when New Zealand bailed us out when we had a shortage of bay formula.
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- The Russian economy of three years ago no longer exists. Any rapprochement with Russia that eases sanctions without addressing its newfound war-driven economic model would risk profound destabilization. @csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/how...
- The U.S. plans to reimpose global tariffs on steel and aluminum—but will they actually solve the longstanding problem of China’s market-distorting policies? Not likely. Evan Brown and I argue that any durable solution must be multilateral. www.csis.org/analysis/us-...
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- Excellent quick-turn analysis by one of the best out there. @kylemeng.com finds U.S. steel prices will rise by 8.2%, causing significant impacts on industries that use steel (e.g. autos, construction, manufacturing, other transportation…). Whether or not they notice, this will cost Americans a lot.
- High-tech services are critical to our competition with the PRC, but it is important to remember that our current strength in these industries is a product of the wise investments the United States made in the past. Today’s policy choices will shape our economy for years to come.
- The production of services is a critical and underappreciated front in the economic competition between the United States and China. Instead of 19th-century protectionism, we need to prioritize market-friendly, pro-talent, pro-innovation policies. www.csis.org/analysis/bey...
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- My time as a diplomat showed me just how much the abuse of economic coercive instruments erodes their effectiveness and undermines both short and long-term security and prosperity. @CSIS www.csis.org/analysis/how...
- Sound and fury signifying nothing? Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are delayed for now, but it was still fun talking about them with my CSIS colleagues. @csis.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeIa...
- My commentary on the (possible?) tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. All of which deteriorate our economic security. www.csis.org/analysis/tar...
- Industrialists overestimating there ability to control a populist leader they helped install.
- This 👇 is a very important point. Less important but still true, the federal government is only funded through March.
