Leo Morgenstern
Managing Editor of Jays Centre and Just Baseball | I've written for MLB Trade Rumors, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Good Phight, Pitcher List, etc. | Occasional comedy for @thebeaverton.com | He/Him
https://leo-morgenstern.portfolial.com
- I do not understand this argument that having two back-to-back MVPs for the first time ever and Judge having a season that cemented him as a future Hall of Famer is somehow any less fun than it would have been if Raleigh won the MVP.
- Getting to watch two players of Judge and Ohtani’s calibre dominate at the same time is the polar opposite of “boring”
- Is it surprising the Blue Jays are interested in extending Varsho? No. But that "definitely, definitely" from Atkins makes me think it's a lot more than just passing interest.
- The GM told Jays Centre that the Blue Jays "definitely, definitely have interest" in signing their Gold Glove center fielder to an extension this winter. #bluejays #toronto #lightsupletsgo
- 54.3% 64.0% Those are the two most important numbers in the MVP race right now, at least to me. The first is how often Aaron Judge gets out: 54.3% of the time. The second is how often Cal Raleigh gets out: 64.0% of the time.
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- I think that’s a very fair argument, and it’s the reason why this is so close at all. I’m just not convinced the value of those extra innings outweighs the value of Judge’s superior offense
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- Keep ‘em coming, I say!!
- Are you really even a writer if you don’t have a note on your phone full of unfished story ideas?
- Yes, Raleigh is a far more valuable defender. But has he added enough additional outs behind the plate to make up for all those extra times he's made an out *at* the plate? I think it would be very, very hard for him to have done so. Especially because Judge is no slouch in the field himself.
- The AL MVP race has been amazing this year. I won't be surprised if Raleigh wins, and I couldn't be mad at anyone who votes for him. What a thrilling season he's had. But all narratives aside, Judge has simply been the more valuable player.
- The difference between Judge's ISO and Raleigh's ISO is negligible. But the difference between Judge's OBP (.457) and Raleigh's (.360) is bigger than that between Raleigh's and Michael Harris II's (.266). Harris ranks last among all qualified players in OBP. That is a MASSIVE difference.
- We've had so many great articles go up at @jayscentre.com in the last few days, and I wanted to spotlight some of them. I loved this piece from @mlesage.bsky.social on the space between panic and perspective that a lot of fans are in right now: jayscentre.com/news-rumors/...
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View full threadAnd then there's our super fun cult heroes bracket, courtesy of @macjayscentre.bsky.social jayscentre.com/news-rumors/...
- Very proud of the work this site is doing! Please follow along with us as we cover the playoff-bound Blue Jays in our blog's first season of existence!
- Yesterday, Matthew Creally wrote about how Toronto's actual record compares to various versions of expected record: jayscentre.com/news-rumors/...
- We also got a great breakdown from @jesseburrill17.bsky.social of five things Jays fans should be watching over the final days of the regular season: jayscentre.com/news-rumors/...
- The top three NL Rookie of the Year contenders in 2025 look a lot like the AL finalists from 2024. Can we learn anything from that? www.justbaseball.com/mlb/last-yea...
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View full threadVery fair argument. I’m not just hearing that conversation. As you said, too many people aren’t paying enough attention to the Brewers. Obviously I’m making assumptions. There’s no way to know what the voters are really thinking, and still time for things to change.
- but right now it feels like Collins still has a much better chance. I don’t bet, and I’m no expert in how odds works. But I’m going to cite them cause they’re one of the only ways to put a number on general opinion about this. And Collins has way better odds than Durbin in every place I looked.
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- I think Durbin is great. He absolutely deserves consideration. But that’s not what the post is about. It’s about predicting who will win, not who deserves it. And Collins is in that conversation way more than Durbin.
- Randy Arozarena is using his very particular set of skills to do something no player has ever done before… www.justbaseball.com/mlb/randy-ar...
- Last December @leomorgenstern.com introduced the "Konerko", when a qualified hitter has exactly one (1) stolen base attempt. In 2025 we have these qualified hitters with just one attempt so far: Matt Olson Vinnie Pasquantino Nathaniel Lowe Ty France Kyle Manzardo Alejandro Kirk Gavin Lux
- Heartbreaking that Josh Bell is 0-for-2 this year, breaking his streak of three straight Konerkos
- If the season ended today, the only non-playoff team in the AL with a .500 or better record would be… the Angels?? How??
- In my latest for @fangraphs.com, I wrote about John Kruk, Victor Cole, categorical perception, and the Russian words for blue, all to question the existence of line drives: blogs.fangraphs.com/where-do-we-...
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- Thanks Davy!!
- I wrote about the trade everyone's been talking about lately:
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View full threadThanks for pointing this out. I think that must be an error in the AP article. Almost every source I’ve seen has the Brewers sending the money. That’s even what the meta description of the AP article says, and what an AP sports desk editor confirmed.
- I linked to AP because they were the first source I saw reporting the $807,000 figure. But I should have double checked the article. I’ll change that to a more accurate source.
- I owe Carlos Narváez an apology. I explain why in one of my favorite pieces I've written recently:
- I need someone to tell The Athletic that the 21st century began in 2001
- Absolutely no disrespect to the writers putting out their quarter century teams, but we simply have not reached the quarter mark of the century yet
- Hey Mark, this sucks
- The juxtaposition between how fast that ball travels out of the park and how slowly Cruz travels around the bases is art
- Yesterday, I wrote about how well catchers have been hitting this season. They proceeded to bump their collective wRC+ up to 102 last night with strong performances from William Contreras, Miguel Amaya, Francisco Alvarez, Carlos Narváez, and more. The year of the catcher continues!
- Catchers Are Finally Joining in on the Fun at the Plate blogs.fangraphs.com/catchers-are...
- "He pitches and he hits. He had the first 50/50 season in major league history ... Ohtani receives so much attention for being unique that sometimes it almost feels boring to talk about how special he is. And then, of course, he goes and finds yet another way to be absolutely unlike anyone else."
- My latest piece for @fangraphs.com is about some pretty interesting double play trends: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos...
- I wrote about Bowden Francis for @jayscentre.com ahead of his start tonight against Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox: jayscentre.com/news-rumors/...
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- And I couldn’t be less happy to be right
- I'm convinced that all the sources sharing this photo and calling it "Phillies pitcher Matt Strahm" are all just part of a guerrilla marketing campaign for Face/Off 2. It's the only explanation.
- Today, I wrote about one of my favorite at-bats I've watched all season. For @fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-...
- My second Phillies article of the day, woo! www.justbaseball.com/mlb/phillies...
- I wrote about one of my favorite players today, and it was one of my favorite pieces to write in a long time: blogs.fangraphs.com/edmundo-sosa...
- J.T. Realmuto has three hits since I spoke about him on Hittin' Season yesterday. That's good! open.spotify.com/episode/2t9q...
- Alejandro Kirk's extension is now official! I wrote about it earlier today for @fangraphs.com: blogs.fangraphs.com/to-boldly-st...
- It’s positional power rankings season! I had a great time writing up this year’s catchers:
- I really enjoyed writing about Josh Bell's special brand of baserunning today. Also very pleased that I could talk about Wicked on FanGraphs: blogs.fangraphs.com/the-running-...
- Been meaning to do this for a while, but I finally wrote about why I'm not at all concerned by the Phillies' high chase rate: www.justbaseball.com/mlb/philadel...
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- TV has never lied to me!
- I’ve been having such a great time reading my @baseballprospectus.com annual since it arrived last week. Honored to have been a part of it again. Cannot recommend buying this book (and subscribing to BP) enough.
- I had fun writing about Andrew Heaney (and somehow also Seamus Heaney?) for FanGraphs today:
