I'm so torn on Rayner.
Clearly the best person for the job in terms of ability. Incredible story, personable, good at politics, charismatic and has delivered in govt. Has shown it again today. A symbol of what Labour should help people achieve.
But...
In our exc tonight -
How cabinet minsters viewed govt amendment as a mistake
How Angela Rayner brokered the deal to save government from defeat - again
“If Ange ran tonight she’d get the numbers,” says one MP.
... her polling is incredibly poor *and* very hard - not much room for improvement. The right wing press have done a absolute number on her.
We remain a deeply classist and sexist nation - and it shows in how she's treated by the public. And it goes way beyond normal anti-Labour peeps.
Urgh
Im so very tempted to say we should just go fuck it, put her in place and properly own it. I would love that.
But the stakes are so high - we get this wrong and we get Reform. And the data is the data
Feb 4, 2026 22:41If she's the best choice, do it.
I don't think the public's view is that firm on her. Prime ministers will be judged by their actions. Maybe she'll get less leeway to start with than others but come 2028/9, that's not going to matter. What happens in between does.
There's an argument that it doesn't actually matter if the 50% who will never consider voting for you hate your leader or merely dislike them. Someone who polls well among Green voters and badly among Reform types would at least solve the fights over where to pitch the campaign.
Having said which, despite being Soft Left myself, I'll happily vote for a centrist if they have a coherent plan to improve the economy, they're willing to take radical action to get there and they promise to get rid of the ridiculous anti-immigration posturing.
But we also get it wrong if we get somebody who cannot make a success out of governing.
Can Rayner do that? I have no idea. But ultimately the thing we need to do to win re-election is to govern well. It's not enough on its own, but without it we have zero paths to victory.
Counterpoint: we're fast approaching the point where almost any potential new leaders would be screwed in 2029, and three years of Big Ange making the worst people in Britain froth at the mouth might actually fix this country...
(No i haven't thought this through past the vibes stages and this is not a data driven take)
On the other hand, trying to play it safe rather than spending time and the majority building a vision and worrying about the argument later has arguably been the mistake so far.
