Kai Thaler
Global Studies prof at UC Santa Barbara, views own. Proud Mainer. Conflict, violence, statebuilding, protest, democracy & authoritarianism. COYS. kaithaler.com. Author of When Rebels Win tinyurl.com/whenrebelswin
- Reposted by Kai Thaler🎙️ In our new podcast, produced in collaboration with the @jodemocracy.bsky.social, Galo Mayorga and @kaimthaler.bsky.social discuss how state weakness, militarized security policies, and public fear are reshaping Ecuador’s democracy. 🇪🇨🇪🇨 🎧 Listen to it now: 👉 tinyurl.com/y5zyn6jp
- Reposted by Kai ThalerCandelaria Garay (@candelariagaray.bsky.social), Jessica Rich (@jessicaajrich.bsky.social), and I co-edited a special issue of World Development on the policy consequences of social movements in the Global South. [1/3]
- Reposted by Kai ThalerAs Prof. Moncada explained, the "narcoterrorism" label unjustly collapses drug trafficking, illicit economies, and political violence into one category. This framing aids the justification of everything from maritime strikes to regime removal, illustrating how language can legitimize coercion.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerSouth Carolina measles outbreak reaches 789 cases, surpassing Texas. The ongoing outbreak is the largest since measles was eliminated in the country 26 years ago. www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerLa estrategia de estrangulamiento económico de Cuba prosigue. En ausencia de valedores en la escena internacional (queda por ver la posición de China), la pregunta es cuánto puede resistir el régimen. ¿Se desmorona, se quiebra o muta en gobierno títere? elpais.com/mexico/2026-...
- Note that this is being done at a time that Noboa, a Trump ally, is President of Ecuador
- In videos posted on social media, one employee can be heard saying: “This is the Ecuadorian consulate. You’re not allowed to enter.” The agent responds, “If you touch me, I’ll grab you.” www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...
- Reposted by Kai Thaler[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Kai ThalerGood way to start the week. My latest work is now out in @coco-journal.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/eprint/DVP33...
- Strong choice by the LA Times editor who went with “overseer” on the front page
- Reposted by Kai ThalerOur latest deep dive with Hunterbrook Media (@truth.bsky.social) is about one of the five richest owners in sports: Robert Pera, of the Grizzlies and Ubiquiti. An NBA owner said, "No one knows where their sales come from." The answer involves Russia's drone war in Ukraine: youtu.be/s6i4uffZvhc?...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerNew: Family members of two men killed in a U.S. missile strike against a boat near Venezuela filed a wrongful death lawsuit in Boston today, alleging the pair were murdered in a "manifestly unlawful" military campaign targeting civilian vessels. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerVeterans Affairs Sect. Collins finally put out a statement regarding VA nurse Alex Pretti's death. Link and screenshot (with alt text) x.com/SecVetAffair...
- Reposted by Kai Thalerholy shit, Xi purged Zhang Youxia. that's pretty much a clean sweep of PLA senior leadership at this point.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerMeanwhile... www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx...
- Reposted by Kai Thalergrim to think about all the things we would have known
- Reposted by Kai ThalerTranslating Davos speak www.ft.com/content/ab4f...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerCARNEY: “.. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” 🔥
- Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
- Reposted by Kai Thaler“But what deeply troubles me now is that for all the steps we've taken toward integration, I've come to believe that we are integrating into a burning house." Dr. King said this famous quote on March 27th, 1968, mere days before his murder. But the context around the quote is interesting...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerThe incredibly lukewarm Democratic response on Greenland is being noticed in Europe, incidentally. Chuck Schumer not finding a stronger word than “quixotic” for Trump’s plan to seize Greenland has been name checked to me more than once.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerLa próxima semana : Elecciones en Costa Rica
- A Schmitt supporting fascist aims of imperial expansion? I guess the 1930s really are back
- Reposted by Kai ThalerWoah Nellie, Trump rekindles the trade war with Europe over Greenland. The President announces 10% tariffs on France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK (yes), Denmark and the rest of Scandinavia. The tariffs will rise to 25% on June 1st unless Greenland is sold to the US. 1/
- Reposted by Kai ThalerJudge Menendez enjoins federal agents from retaliating against protestors, using pepper spray against peaceful protesters, arresting peaceful protesters, and stopping vehicles without suspicion of obstruction. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
- At least seven killed already as votes are counted in Uganda in an election that was always going to end with the announcement of another "official" victory by Museveni www.reuters.com/world/africa...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerScroll through Facebook today and it's just restaurants announcing they are closed. Events are canceled. Schools are closing. I can't think of any government action that has ever killed this much economic activity for such a prolonged time.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerWitnesses in Iran comparing (in private coms to diaspora analysts) the violence now against past protest suppression. Said in past used batons, even armed units fired cautiously. This time sustained and constant fire at full volume against crowds, including with machine guns.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerURGENTE: Alexandre de Moraes transfere Jair Bolsonaro para a Papuda: O ministro Alexandre de Moraes, do Supremo Tribunal Federal, determinou na tarde desta quinta-feira (15) que Jair Bolsonaro (PL) seja levado para cumprir pena no Complexo Penitenciário da Papuda, no Distrito Federal,… #revistafórum
- Reposted by Kai ThalerThe Hmong are here because they fought for the US in a war we lost.
- In 2016 when I was living in Kampala, the military was deployed around the city ahead of the elections and for weeks afterward. A decade later and in many ways nothing has changed, even acknowledging the increased energy of Bobi Wine's candidacy apnews.com/article/ugan...
- The previous Venezuelan leadership was deemed so corrupt & horrible it warranted airstrikes & a special forces raid to seize the leader, yet now apparently it's more important not to upset someone who's been a loyal part of that regime leadership for years than to follow the constitution
- NEW: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the court that any effort to provide due process to the 137 deported Venezuela men could damage nascent negotiations with Delcy Rodrigues — and invite anti-American subterfuge. w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerIt is really good to see @apsa.bsky.social doing this.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerFun fact: The USG considers perfidy in a non-international armed conflict (which the boat bombing scheme supposedly is) to be a war crime. Notable if the administration is committing criminal violations of its own (bogus) legal framework for the boat strikes. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/u...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerThe Pentagon is said to have used a plane that looked like a civilian aircraft in a boat strike. The law prohibits combatants from feigning civilian status to fool adversaries, then attacking and killing them. That is a war crime called “perfidy.”
- Reposted by Kai Thaler"A medic at one Tehran hospital said there were "direct shots to the heads of the young people, to their hearts as well", while a doctor said an eye hospital in the capital had gone into crisis mode" www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerThe source that informed me of this said the Border Patrol officer in question claimed the victims were trying to run him over in their car, which is why he shot.
- KATU has confirmed CBP agents shot two people in Portland katu.com/news/local/i...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerSCOOP: After Undercounting Boat Strike Killings, U.S. Military Updates Death Toll After questions from The Intercept, U.S. Southern Command updated its count of civilians killed in boat strikes to 123. theintercept.com/2026/01/08/u...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerNOTAMS (warning to pilots) have been issued across Iran. Suggests something big might be happening.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerIn our piece with Prof. @vasabjit.bsky.social, we argue that the problems with the armed forces predate Maduro and even Chávez; no one should count on the Venezuelan Military surrendering its privileges easily foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/07/v...
- If you're looking to support a progressive, economic populist Congressional candidate who'll also go to bat on social issues & foreign policy, my friend Don Leonard @donforohio.bsky.social is running to flip Ohio's 15th District (he's more active on IG). Find out more & donate here donforohio.com
- Reposted by Kai Thaler🚨Job alert! 🚨 I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills. ⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26 More info:
- Reposted by Kai Thaler[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Kai ThalerIf the DEA had killed 80 innocent Americans in the course of apprehending one drug dealer, there would be riots. But we are so ghoulishly indifferent to the lives and humanity of people abroad that it's barely even part of the conversation.
- Reposted by Kai ThalerThis Is What Venezuelans Really Want www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/o...
- Reposted by Kai Thaler"It said on Sunday that there would be two days of mourning on January 5 and 6 in honour of those killed and said funeral arrangements would be announced." www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerEcuador, already besieged by crime and violence, now has a populist president whose “strong hand” policies may do even more damage to the country’s democracy, Galo Mayorga and @kaimthaler.bsky.social predict. NEW: "Crime, Crackdowns, and Democracy in Ecuador". muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerNEW via @apnews.com: "Secretary of State Marco #Rubio suggested Sunday that the United States would not take a day-to-day role in governing #Venezuela other than enforcing an existing 'oil quarantine' on the country." apnews.com/live/us-vene...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerWELKER: Is the Cuban government the Trump administration's next target? MARCO RUBIO: Well, the Cuban government is a huge problem. Yeah. WELKER: Is that a yes? RUBIO: I think they're in a lot of trouble, yes
- How have US intelligence-supported regime change efforts in Latin America tended to go after initially toppling a leader? Not really a surprise: they’ve had high costs for the population in affected countries, per a recent economic analysis www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
- Reposted by Kai Thalerthis is a careful and thorough interview with Oona Hathaway where neither of them ever concedes a premise to the Trump administration
- New Interview: www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerVP Delcy Rodriguez, whom Trump indicated earlier today was collaborating with the US government, is live on television right now. Earlier reports that she's in Russia are false. She's in Caracas with the rest of the cabinet. Rodriguez: "We will never again be a colony for any empire"
- Reposted by Kai ThalerAt the same press conference, US General Dan Caine stated that Maduro has “ceded power to Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.” Trump seemed to dodge questions about that, responding only “we’re gonna run it properly...she was sworn in…We’re not afraid of boots on the ground.”
- Someone didn’t like MCM winning “his” peace prize
- Reposted by Kai ThalerTHREAD: I'll fact-check all the viral misinformation about the US military operation in Venezuela in this thread This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated. According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.
- The pardon of Juan Orlando Hernandez already gave away that this admin doesn’t really care about stopping drug trafficking but even if the regime doesn’t collapse the US has destabilized Venezuela, increasingly likelihood of more trafficking in areas of state weakness & violence to carve out control
- Reposted by Kai Thaler•Venezuela’s VP is still giving press conferences •very unclear how much of the other leadership is hanging around •not clear at all if there are US troops on the ground (which would, you know, constitute the occupation part)
- Reposted by Kai ThalerI am wondering if this statement that the US will be running Venezuela is news to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat and acting head of the defunct USAID, which he might want to have around if this is the case.
- Read @mpaarlberg.bsky.social thread here. Venezuela’s situation is a hundred times messier than Panama. It’s possible that civil war there is avoided, but the short term looks very rough, especially if conservative elites view this as a victory & reject any near-term compromise or power-sharing
- Reposted by Kai ThalerIf this is true, the closest comparison for the Venezuela operation isn't Iraq but Panama. In both cases, the invasion was portrayed as a police action to capture a head of state to stand trial in the US for drug trafficking...
- Reposted by Kai ThalerNews: Gang of Eight in Congress were only notified about Trump's Venezuela operation after it began, source familiar tells me. That means the heads of the Intelligence Committees in Senate and House were *not* consulted. Just crazy.
- Reposted by Kai Thaler[This post could not be retrieved]
