Aaron Stein
President/CEO @fpri.bsky.social; Podcast w/ blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social; Recent Substacker; Author: US War Against ISIS. Views are all my own
- My latest podcast for @fpri.bsky.social with Saeid Golkar and Hamed Behravan :: The Islamic Republic Teeters open.substack.com/pub/fpriinsi...
- The latest from @fpri.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social discusses the Trump-Class Battleship and asks questions about the future of the US Navy open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
- FPRI Experts React | Regime Change in Venezuela @fpri.bsky.social www.fpri.org/article/2026...
- Philly - Albany - Quebec City - Charlevoix - Montreal - Middlebury - Stratton - Danielsville. 1520 miles. 15 days on the road. 9 days of ski in Canada, Vermont, Pennsylvania.
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- I’m not too far from you
- This is such an incredible story and inspiring for us skiers
- My latest podcast for @fpri.bsky.social :: Understanding Unmanned Naval Systems open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
- The best way to welcome back Americans from a long holiday weekend with analysis from @salisbot.bsky.social :: Want of Frigates open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
- Me and the 6 year old. Day 1 in the books. Thanksgiving ski. cc: @stevenacook.bsky.social @thomasjuneau.bsky.social @dovsfriedman.bsky.social
- My latest for @fpri.bsky.social is part of a multi-chapter series on the lessons learned from the 12-day war. I interviewed US military personnel directly involved in the drone defense of Israel to document challenges for future US planning and for NATO from RU drones www.fpri.org/article/2025...
- Big news @fpri.bsky.social. @emilyjholland.bsky.social has joined us as director of our Eurasia program. Emily is a powerhouse and has hit the ground running. www.fpri.org/news/2025/11...
- The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean - www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
- DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
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View full threadSo any minute changes that normal people don't really follow -- subcritical yield testing etc etc -- would actually give China a pass to "level up" and not really be in US interests. Why? US has the most test data (by far) of all the nuclear powers.
- I see the statement as a response to Burevestnik and Poseidon boasting online and so would wager this is not about altering US testing standard. But is instead meant to show off that the US has the tools to render any Ru investments to defeat missile defense irrelevant for basics of deterrence
- But if I had to guess -- what may happen is an increase in DV testing. So more minuteman and Trident testing. And not nuclear testing. However, Russia has long been accused of violating the CTBT w/ tests > 0 yield. China has not, FWIW, been accused of the same www.armscontrol.org/policy-white...
- Ankara covets Meteor as part of the Typhoon deal, which helps explain the price point, with the Eurofighter consortium (that and localized weapon integration). Good deal for the UK.
- Very big news for us @fpri.bsky.social 👇 www.fpri.org/news/2025/10...
- I'll be adding another chapter next week on the Shahed defense based on interviews with key personnel involved for @fpri.bsky.social
- How did Iranian & Israeli air and missile defenses perform during the 12-Day War? Read all about it in my new piece @fpri.bsky.social TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down
- I teamed up w/ @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to write about one of our favorite missiles :: American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
- Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security www.carnegie.org/news/article...
- It is truly an eyebrow raising moment in history when you have a Turkish ruler -- who loves Ottoman iconography -- championing a British-run Palestinian enclave in the 2025 AD.
- Big announcement for @fpri.bsky.social :: FPRI Appoints Shihoko Goto as Vice President of Programs www.fpri.org/news/2025/10...
- The limitation on US investment in the Turkish nuclear sector is the BOO model. Not a lack of interest historically from Westinghouse et al. It is simply too capital intensive for private entities to finance a reactor based on a fixed price of kWh purchase agreement over 20+ years.
- "The partnership will likely result in the United States becoming involved in new nuclear power plant builds, and Sinop and Thrace have been identified as “the country’s next nuclear frontiers,” with a particular interest in SMRs" nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-...
- The reason Rosatom is the ONLY firm building in Turkey is b/c Rosatom is an entity of the Russian government, subsidized, and willing to take a loss (and even at that they are trying to sell stakes to capital raise to offset losses).
- I wasn't making it up: US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...
- Turkish FM Hakan Fidan complained about the failure to lift CAATSA sanctions and the fact that no agreement had been reached with Washington on the sale of engines (needed for the KAAN). Some even see these statements as part of the struggle for the post-Erdoğan era. yetkinreport.com/2025/09/29/h...
- I'll just add: It is not at all odd to use a foreign engine in your prototype, or an engine not designed for the jet. The F110 isn't a bottleneck to Kaan, per se. So its largely irrelevant IMHO.
- The always excellent @salisbot.bsky.social for @fpri.bsky.social :: The Return of Subic Bay open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
- More from us @fpri.bsky.social on the future of CCA
- Continued Conversation About Collaborative Combat Aircraft buff.ly/aJ8dWT4
- The US and Turkey already have a nuclear agreement --> www.energy.gov/nnsa/123-agr...
- This will be about SMRs, a discussion dating back to the Biden years. www.reuters.com/world/turkey...
- US won't sell F110 w/out the F-16 and cannot sell F-110 to SSB w/out CAATSA being resolved. Can't resolve CAATSA w/out S-400 compromise. Tr also cannot "rejoin" the F-35 consortium. It can purchase F-35 but only w/ compromise on S-400. www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-...
- F16 was paused (on the request of Ankara) because RTE wants the F-35. He wants the F-35 for regional prestige and to keep up with/ Greece/Israel and b/c of lost cash on the contract abrogation stemming from S400. Best case is Tr compromises on S-400 and can "buy" the F35. But cannot also afford F16
- This is why F16 talks were paused until F-35 is resolved. The entire bilateral relationship is frozen in 2019. Nothing has changed.
- We are quite proud of this @fpri.bsky.social
- Exciting news! The Ties that Bind is back for a second season! Read more on this season's focus, #NATO Allies in Action, on Substack! buff.ly/kafu7vT
- We @fpri.bsky.social just finished a large study on drone incursions in the US. Most are accidents. Yet, proliferation of UAS has created an exploitable environment for malign actors seeking to conduct close target reconnaissance, or potentially even kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure.
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View full threadHere is a similar instance in Germany, where drones overflew Rheimettal and Ramstein: www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
- And overflight of US/UK airbases: www.bbc.com/news/article...
- The US is hamstrung in its response b/c of competing authorities, the potential danger to civilians, and even Article IV constitutional protections (jamming a drone is considered an illegal wiretapping in certain instances). I imagine EU has similar issues; www.fpri.org/article/2025...
- I'll just add that airport sightings are often fraught, with mixed reporting. The US has a single database. Don't know about the EU. But "large drones" need not be anything outside of the personal hobby class. Good example is what happened in both Germany and in the UK at Lakenheath.
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- I mean that is the story of the Cold War. People should familiarize themselves with how many times the two sides did shoot the other down. Mostly USSR shooting down US/NATO kit.
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- That was different context. I think comparing NATO Air Policing mission in countries bordering Russia w/ the extreme deficits EU nations face in defense vs a Su-24 shoot down in Syria w/ mixed outcomes is just apples to oranges and extreme fallacy.
- No they got more aggressive because Turkey shot down their jet.
- The Russians and Americans would fight a lot over Syria independent of anything Turkey was doing. 2017 was a particularly feisty year. Many near misses.
- In Syria, approaching US A-10/F-16 doing vuls over the pocket etc, leading to US assigning A-10s to Syria and F-16 to Iraq to ensure that the S-400 wouldn't mistake a USAF jet for a TuRAF one; 6) RuAF focused air power on Turkish proxies in response, ejecting them from Aleppo, and then leading
- to a Tr-RU rapprochement and the purchase of the S-400. Bottom line: The history and outcomes of the shoot down were super messy. I get the appeal. Best to know it all. All documented in my book on the ISIS war, pp: 98-128 www.amazon.com/US-War-Again...
- Were at 'Lik for C-ISIS mission in the Manbij Pocket; 2) NATO Patriot was in Turkey; 3) Ru first response was to deny and then to augment S-400 deployments at Khmeim; 4) TurAF stopped overflying Syria in response, ending brief cooperation on the Manbij Pocket (and extending into Euphrates Shield)
- Put more plainly, the TuRAF was removed from the ATO for Syria. The Russian threatened them. The message all around was de-escalation. In a hamfisted move the USAF recalled its E models (they were needed elsewhere for a EUCOM tasking); 5) Those S-400 and RuAF Flankers got far more aggressive
