- DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
- But if I had to guess -- what may happen is an increase in DV testing. So more minuteman and Trident testing. And not nuclear testing. However, Russia has long been accused of violating the CTBT w/ tests > 0 yield. China has not, FWIW, been accused of the same www.armscontrol.org/policy-white...Oct 30, 2025 15:00
- So any minute changes that normal people don't really follow -- subcritical yield testing etc etc -- would actually give China a pass to "level up" and not really be in US interests. Why? US has the most test data (by far) of all the nuclear powers.
- I see the statement as a response to Burevestnik and Poseidon boasting online and so would wager this is not about altering US testing standard. But is instead meant to show off that the US has the tools to render any Ru investments to defeat missile defense irrelevant for basics of deterrence
