President Trump's dismantling of the U.S.-led global order has injected deep uncertainty — and perhaps fresh opportunity — into #China's timeline for a potential invasion of #Taiwan. www.axios.com/2025/03/08/t...

"I never comment on that," Trump said this week when asked if it was his policy that China will never take Taiwan by force. "I don't want to comment on it because I don't want to ever put myself in that position."

Beijing has stepped up its saber-rattling toward Taiwan, pledging at the annual National People's Congress this week to "firmly advance the cause of China's reunification" and boost defense spending by 7.2%.

Next week marks the 20th anniversary of China's Anti-Secession Law, which explicitly authorizes the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence or if peaceful "reunification" becomes impossible.

S. presidents have had a long-running policy of "strategic ambiguity" on the question of military intervention to protect Taiwan. But under Trump 2.0, it has become a true mystery.

For starters, Trump's approach toward Ukraine has dispelled the notion that he would defend Taiwan solely for the sake of shielding a democracy from authoritarian aggression.

lines: Forget alliances or idealism. The only thing Trump cares about on the global stage is core U.S. interests.

And whether it's Russia or China, Trump prefers to negotiate superpower-to-superpower — leaving allies in the cold, even when their sovereignty or security is at stake.

Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan plays a pivotal role in the global economy, with its crown jewel chip-maker, TSMC, manufacturing more than 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.

Under the threat of tariffs, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in U.S chip production this week — pleasing Trump, but alarming Taiwanese who fear it could make the island more vulnerable.

Many top Trump officials have called for the U.S. to draw down its presence in Europe and the Middle East to focus on China's threat to Taiwan, seeing it as far more important than Ukraine.

Elbridge Colby, a leading voice on the issue nominated for a top Pentagon role, told senators this week that Taiwan falling to China "would be a disaster for American interests."

Europe so far has borne the brunt of Trump's highly transactional foreign policy, but China, Taiwan and the rest of the Indo-Pacific are watching closely.