Robert Fournier: We also found that fishes are accumulating risk faster than their zooplankton prey during key times of year. A pattern that hints at the potential for trophic mismatches that could affect the whole food web. We also found strong spatial patterns, with the strongest divergence in more saline regions.

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Robert Fournier robfour.bsky.social · Nov 11, 2025
So excited to share our new paper out today in Ecological Applications @esajournals.bsky.social! We used time-series modeling explore ecological risk for fishes and their prey in the San Francisco Estuary during key phenological windows that shape food web dynamics. dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap....
Phenology‐informed decline risk of estuarine fishes and their prey suggests potential for future trophic mismatches

Conservation scientists have long used population viability analysis (PVA) on species count data to quantify critical decline risk, thereby informing conservation actions. These assessments typically...

dx.doi.org

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Robert Fournier robfour.bsky.social · Nov 11, 2025
By modeling how long-term population trends and variability impact decline probability, we examined how risk fluctuates throughout the year for age-0 fishes. We found that risk can vary from month to month, highlighting that risk might not be consistent even within the same life stage.

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Robert Fournier robfour.bsky.social
We also found that fishes are accumulating risk faster than their zooplankton prey during key times of year. A pattern that hints at the potential for trophic mismatches that could affect the whole food web. We also found strong spatial patterns, with the strongest divergence in more saline regions.
Nov 11, 2025 18:30
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Robert Fournier robfour.bsky.social · Nov 11, 2025
Assessing risk across species and at fine spatial and temporal scales can help pinpoint management priorities to protect estuarine food webs and guide limited conservation resources

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Robert Fournier robfour.bsky.social · Nov 11, 2025
Huge thanks to @fishteph.bsky.social, @albertruhi.bsky.social, and former technician Tyler Marino. This project was truly a team effort!

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Phenology‐informed decline risk of estuarine fishes and their prey suggests potential for future trophic mismatches