Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز
🇱🇧&🇺🇸(Paris-based) Editor-in-chief Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.
Ex-IISS on Eastern Mediterranean.
Ex-Politico on Macron.
Ex-ABC News on Syria/Iraq/Lebanon/Israel.
Multiple Emmy winner.
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- Despite their geopolitical impotence on UKR and Gaza, Euros cld be helpful on 3 central aspects:restoring inspections of Iran nuke facilities, influencing Tehran’s LT calculus, and helping get a broader agreement that reduces the ISR gov’s pretexts to resume war carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
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- OH the irony.
- Ahead of the July 11 Polish parliament confidence vote on Tusk's govt (which he called for), read this by @susmonika.bsky.social assessing just how responsible Tusk and his coalition were for the presidential win by Nawrocki, the populist backed by PiS. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
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- When they roll out and enforce the so-called "massive sanctions" *in coordination with the US* as they threatened Sunday then we can say they did it. Half measures and incremental measures aren't good enough anymore.
- Also serving in the US military is one of the fast-tracks to citizenship for foreigners...
- In the space of 5 days we’ve gone from a 24h ultimatum and “massive sanctions” bearing down on Russia, supposedly in coordination w/US, to Euros saying “we’ll continue to coordinate [with US etc] to define a united response”
- START'EM YOUNG!
- Rubio: only way to get breakthrough is for Trump and Putin to meet. Basically rewarding Putin w/summit for rejecting every demand. So much for terrible consequences the Euros threatened, claiming coordination w/US, if Putin refused unconditional ceasefire +no progress in TUR.
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- Interesting but let's actually see how that would happen concretely.
- FR FM says Euro sanctioning 194 RUS oil tankers, 31 entities providing weapons, banks etc. Why not start by stopping Euro purchasing of RUS oil and gas. Since the price cap was intro, the EU as a whole has been the 4th largest purchaser as I wrote here: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- With Putin now ridiculing his own Turkey talks proposal, Re-upping this from me on Tuesday: "Instead of hollow ultimatums [Europeans] cannot enforce, it is now time they create military facts on the ground that impose a ceasefire in at least parts of Ukraine."
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- Very important step taken by France: officially attributing cyber attacks against dozens of FR entities since 2021 to Russia's GRU (it also hacked Macron's campaign emails in 2017) : ministries, defense companies, think tanks etc
- The 2d test will be how to handle the question of whether and when the Euros should reengage w/Russia. This was raised by a couple of countries, though not France, at a recent summit hosted by Macron. The question was dismissed as untimely, but it has since come up in lower-level discussions
- the German est has to invest in a new foreign and security nervous system w/o US. Many recoil at recognizing that the US no longer wishes to be the ultimate guarantor of Euro security, continue to hold on to hope that everything will go back to normal, warn of an imagined “self-fulfilling prophecy”
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- Trump has turned the US from the West’s most reliable and lucrative asset into its biggest liability. Trump’s most extreme policies are not supported by a majority of Americans. most Republicans still support both foreign trade and defending allies’ security. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- We had to, this question is going to keep coming up! Shld Europe get closer to China, in light of Trump's tariffs? This week's #TTP with a great diversity of analysis from top-notch experts @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social @noahbarkin.bsky.social and many others carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- This was one of my favorite discussions this yr. I find conversations abt AI/machine learning too black-and-white but Sinan and Sam’s insights provided both a clear-eyed reality check on the dangers looming but also on the accessible ways for each individual to limit the negative
- @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social Hello, I'm trying to reach you, could you please follow me back? Thank you
- From me, despite laudable FR-UK-led efforts: "the #s don’t add up, stmts by leaders have dangerously raised expectations. As currently defined, the 3 objectives laid out by Euros for bolstering their and UKR’s security remain out of reach." carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- We threw a big challenge to 9 experts on nuclear power and asked them to answer in 200 words whether the Europeans can built their own independent extended nuclear deterrent - their collective insights are worth the detour! carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
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- L'heure est grave...
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- In #TTP we ask: Shld UK/TUR be in "Buy European"? F. Mangiameli:"Integrating the UK and TUR into EU plans to rearm is both strategic and necessary" @gesineweber.bsky.social: "the inclusion of non-EU states into a Euro preference shld be subject to conditions." carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- Frederiksen keeps delivering stunning positions, given Denmark’s historic positions.
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- Yep. And Rubio/Waltz told CNN’s Marquardt last week “The President has made it clear and certainly made it clear to us that all fighting needs to stop...now we’ll take that to the Russians and get their response." I guess Trump changed his mind! Iran and upside are more imp.
- Kyiv is gonna wait a long time…
- This is the real test for Euro strategic autonomy: can Euros continue to arm and support Ukraine’s military regardless of what the US and Russia say? No intl law or rule prevents them. Its support for sovereignty and territorial integrity, as UN Charter Art 51 allows. Via @yarotrof.bsky.social
- Putin is effectively setting the conditions. And he rejected even the limited air and sea truce that Macron/Starmer/Zelensky had suggested as a stepping stone. Clear from readout for Trump focal points are: - Iran - bilat rship w/Russia, “upside” and eco opportunities
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- "Given Europe’s structural constraints, whatever the final form of a Euro defense force, it wld need to rely on NATO scaffolding for the foreseeable future, leaving it vulnerable to US shifts Nevertheless, such a force is worth building" @belangerjf.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- Interesting Trump decided to threaten highest tariffs on FR alcohol before GER cars. There’s no substitute for FR Champagne, it’s a geographically protected designation. Americans can enjoy “sparkling wine” but it doesn’t have the same ring to it. Perhaps Macron shld simply respond “salud!”
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[Not loaded yet] - Russian negotiators have a long history of constantly moving goalposts in negotiations, pocketing concessions from the other side before adding more demands. Let’s see how they behave when Americans ask them to sign up to the ceasefire, and how it is enforced/monitored.
- Maybe I’m missing sth, but isn’t it backwards to start by bearing down all pressure on the invaded country - Ukraine - to agree to a ceasefire, instead of starting with compelling the invader - Russia - to ceasefire, since you know it’s the one attacking a sovereign country?
- Lithuania quitting the 1997 Anti-Personnel Landmines Convention banning cluster bombs etc for fear of Russia. Expect more along this route. A disintegration of a whole scaffolding of international rules, perhaps an unintended consequence of how the Trump admin is handling the Ukraine conflict.
- Ah the disconnect between the ideas supported and the means necessary -- changing this mindset is now vital for a country like France. There's no way around it, there's no magic money: less social spending to have more for defense
- French poll
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- "If Merz follows up his stmts w/concrete strat actions, he cld give Europe the leadership it requires. This cld be the necessary anchor for Berlin in light of Washington’s change of direction." Judy Dempsey wrote for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social after the elex: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
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- If Euros truly want to be actors of their own security, they must now create facts on the ground that Trump and Putin cannot ignore. 2 priorities: supercharge military assistance, and, if Zelensky is forced to step down, ensure Russia cannot interfere in or manipulate the elex
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- Reposted by Rym Momtaz ريم ممتازTrump and Vance are part of the tiny percentage of Americans who sympathize more with Russia (4%) than Ukraine (62%) and who view Putin more favorably (75% unfavorable) than Zelensky (28% unfavorable) today.yougov.com/politics/art...
- There are legitimate questions over whether the Trump administration is indeed on the side of Ukraine. If one’s not in the manifestation business, one needs to allow for that possibility. Case in point below from John.
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- On Feb 11 @glandsbergis.bsky.social wrote this for #StrategicEurope @carnegieeurope.bsky.social Suspend Hungary’s Voting Rights to Save the EU’s Credibility Seems especially germaine tonight carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
- If after today there are still European leaders who don't draw up drastically different defense policies, and still think the US administration is like the ones they and their parents grew up with, they are brain dead. There is no saving them.
- Weeks ago I said, Macron has become Zelensky’s first call in times of crisis. With US behaving as it is, a HUGE responsibility on Macron’s shoulders, he needs to find a smart way to deliver on, he cannot handle w/o Euro partners’ active support. www.ft.com/content/c69b... via @christopherjm.ft.com
- The Trump administration is trashing every pillar of US power, might, advantage on the global chess board one after the other. In the month since his inauguration, the country the admin has most weakened is the USA. What comparable damage has it done to Russia or China or Iran.
- An admin throwing away all its leverage. "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter." therecord.media/hegseth-orde...
- This day will go down in infamy.
- If Trump forces Zelensky out of office, he will be helping Putin achieve one of his war goals (a reminder that he hasn’t achieved any of the initially stated goals of his so-called “special operation” quite the contrary)
- The problem is : Trump identifies Zelensky with the Hunter Biden thing, and was never going to get past that. The writing has been on the wall for a long time. As I understand it Trump cancelled the planned mtg w/Zelensky on Wed, Z wld have been better off leaving it be.
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- To know more abt what's at stake and why it cld be replicated elsewhere in EU, read this on #StrategicEurope @carnegieeurope.bsky.social "Romania has long carried within its body politic the seeds of this destabilization and shld serve as a clarion call" carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
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- Reposted by Rym Momtaz ريم ممتازReality check. Thank you, Financial Times.
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- Reposted by Rym Momtaz ريم ممتازI told you all @jeffbezos was feral. He’s now killed the Graham/Bradlee legacy of justice, the First Amendment and basic humanity in a vomitous spew of nonsense, testosterone fueled (and HGH) double talk that is more than a little pathetic and utterly shameless.
