Rajiv Sethi
Economics | Barnard | Columbia | Santa Fe Institute | columbia.edu/~rs328/ | rajivsethi.substack.com | tinyurl.com/shadowsofdoubt
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiNice to see CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social represented in this list of notable research
- Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025. Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe #AcademicChatter #crypto
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiCheck out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025. Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe #AcademicChatter #crypto
- PPE Lecture Series: Rajiv Sethi (Columbia) | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics share.google/MonOg0POYBSd...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiSometimes history is not a good guide to the future. CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains why predictive markets may outperform polls & poll-based statistical models. Watch, then go to Rajiv's Substack essay on this: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/guessing-g... www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YVc...
- New post on prediction markets, spoofing, and forecasting accuracy: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Short but substantive conversation with Smerconish today: youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiWanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, and Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America Watch my full segment on YouTube & Subscribe: youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM
- Short but substantive conversation with @smerconish.bsky.social on prediction markets: youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...
- Clip from a longer conversation with Smerconish a couple of days ago: www.facebook.com/reel/1371138...
- New post on (possible) insider trading on Polymarket open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, asset price bubbles, and on online game: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on Salman Rushdie: Encountering the Buddha open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on the detection of wash trading: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiAccessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiDirect link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiHave been waiting for this paper to come out ever since Hongyao told me about it -- more academics should be taking advantage of such open data to answer important questions
- Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- New post on prediction markets and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv Sethi"What appeals to me most abt American traditions is the creedal nature of national identity, the Declaration’s insistence on universal equality…the rights enumerated in our Constitution…I consider innovation…growth…sustained material prosperity…downstream of free expression." @rajivsethi.bsky.social
- New post on the compact open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiCASBS's Creating a New Moral Political Economy program (2020-23) offers an open access repository allowing students & educators to expand their thinking about moral political economy issues & questions. Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository. 👉 mpe.stanford.edu
- New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv Sethi[This post could not be retrieved]
- Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiCheck out Interactive Economics, an open access project co-directed by CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social & devoted to learning economics & the dynamics of interactions among people, resources & the environment. Four modules released & more coming soon Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org
- Introducing Interactive Economics! A collection of interactive tools that make learning economics easy and accessible to all. The website will be live soon, completely free of charge. Follow us to stay updated! #economics #barnardcollege @rajivsethi.bsky.social www.instagram.com/reel/C4_mB6t...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiCASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social has a terrific Substack called Imperfect Information In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️
- New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiTopical in a couple of different ways, but also points out a major failure point of our collective information processing systems: we infer from financial metrics much more than what their generative process warrants. Much like omens in other cultures... 1/
- New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiInstead of regurgitating the bromide that LLMs are just "autocomplete on steroids" (even by people who know better), maybe we can actually engage in some public education. The problem with genAI is better expressed through a classic computer science concept, known as SYMBOL GROUNDING. 🧵
- New post on a presidential memorandum open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Call for Papers: 20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd... It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year
- New post on the Columbia deal: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on the work of Jens Ludwig on gun violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiI made a quick Russian interference explainer. When CIA director Ratcliffe started down this road, I wrote 3000 words about the Senate reports, the data sets from big tech, etc. Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻♀️
- New post on a second act for PredictIt: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Follow up post on this open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New deal between PredictIt and the CFTC drops restrictions on total number of traders and raises cap to $3.5K per trader in any given market (up from $850); it will be interesting to see implications for forecasting accuracy: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- New post on professional distancing in academia (based recent work by Kris Gulati and Lorenzo Palladini): open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiHear me out: this is actually potentially interesting if they can find a way to avoid floods of spam. It could address some big issues w/ Community Notes — language neutrality issues preventing “clearing,” bandwidth to write notes, ideologue topic issues, etc www.theverge.com/news/696210/...
- Just posted a new paper (with Chiara Chanoi, José Luis Montiel Olea and Dan O'Flaherty) that looks at use of lethal force by police officers in the 1930s, based on data collected as background material for Myrdal's American Dilemma papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiOur preprint “How Malicious AI Swarms Can Threaten Democracy” is now online. We show how coordinated multi-agent LLM swarms can infiltrate communities, craft synthetic grassroots “consensus,” and erode institutional trust—and what we can do now to stop it. osf.io/preprints/os...
- New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post on the possibility of a long, hot summer open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiJust published the introductory essay to an issue (OA! 😀) of @bppjournal.bsky.social I've been co-editing in honor of Mario Rizzo; with articles by Adam Oliver, Gerd Gigerenzer, Shaun Hargreaves Heap, George Loewenstein, Nick Chater, and Cass Sunstein, among others www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
- New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/betting-on...
- Even if the courts rule against the DHS on this, all political appointees at foreign consulates know that they will be fired if they approve F-1 visas for applicants holding Harvard acceptance letters 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...
- This was predictable, and was in fact predicted a week after the election: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- A Golden Goose is being slaughtered before our eyes: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...?
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View full threadSome more thoughts on the brain drain underway: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv Sethi“the only country that has both the resources and the capacity to make credible commitments regarding academic freedom is Norway.” @rajivsethi.bsky.social rajivsethi.substack.com/p/body-blows...
- New post on brain drains and gains: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- I've had plenty of disagreements with Tom Palley on this and other issues but find this kind of social ostracism really distasteful: thomaspalley.com?p=2545
- New post on a commencement speech open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiExtremely dramatic Romanian election coming to a close with the centrist (an impressive mathematician) projected to win. Some of the American election-denier cranks on X are darkly hinting this is some kind of shenanigans, of course.
- Reposted by Rajiv SethiAfter this year's Conclave, traders reacted aggressively on the quick announcement, but it turns out there weren't any insiders this time. @rajivsethi.bsky.social
- Reposted by Rajiv Sethiinside information apparently had not leaked, but it *might* have leaked. traders appear to have (mistakenly!) magnified early price moves after the smoke turned white, on that theory. as always, excellent from @rajivsethi.bsky.social.
- Prediction markets and the papal conclave: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Prediction markets and the papal conclave: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- If we knew which foreign offers these international admits were (also) accepting it would tell us where future global leadership in higher education might lie: www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
- Did not expect this
- If Norway is going to use its sovereign wealth fund to challenge American dominance of higher education, this would be the time, and these would be the students to try and attract to begin with: www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
- This post seems to have struck a chord in some circles, more views in the first couple of days than anything else I've written: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- Really festive atmosphere at the north end of Central Park today, stop by if in the area www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/a...
- Free ice cream, lemonade, cheesecake, dance and yoga classes, celebrity DJ
- And this
- Reposted by Rajiv Sethi"Public confidence in higher education has declined precipitously across partisan lines, and this has to be recognized and addressed. And rebuilding trust will require, at a minimum, some acknowledgement of failures to vigorously protect free expression in the past."
- New post with a look at free speech on campus over the past two decades open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
- New post with a look at free speech on campus over the past two decades open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
