Paul Poast
International Relations and Foreign Policy. UChicago Prof. Chicago Council Fellow. WPReview Columnist. Still on Twitter/X, but now here too.
paulpoast.com
- Reposted by Paul PoastInternational organizations only matter to the Trump administration to the extent that they advance U.S. interests, as Trump defines them, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastHere's the column by @profpaulpoast.bsky.social. (And the nonpartisan, but morally lucid, outlet is @wpr.bsky.social.) Gift link.
- Congratulations to @profpaulpoast.bsky.social for having the only piece I could find in a "nonpartisan" outlet correctly identifying the 2025 NSS as a white supremacist grand strategy.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe U.S. attack on Venezuela is consistent with how an America First foreign policy was understood when it was first introduced in 1940, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastBefore the new year begins, our columnists weigh in on how the Trump administration’s foreign policy of upheaval will continue to reverberate across the globe. Read predictions from @dandrezner.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @bloggingsbyboz.bsky.social & @profpaulpoast.bsky.social here:
- Reposted by Paul PoastAid cuts by the U.S. and other wealthy nations around the world have caused a decline in health funding. More children are dying as a result, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastFind the full series here, with excellent contributions from @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social Julie Smith, Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social @profpaulpoast.bsky.social and many others. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
- Reposted by Paul PoastTrump’s racist remarks are disturbing. But the use of such language and the influence of such ideas in global politics is far from surprising, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastIf it wasn’t before, it is now clear that race, racial differences and even white supremacy inform Trump’s worldview and therefore the policies of his administration. That’s disturbing, but far from surprising, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastI'm very excited to share this new article with an all-star cast of coauthors on the dangers of ignoring domestic causes in public-facing IR! @lanoszka.bsky.social @seva.bsky.social @profpaulpoast.bsky.social @joannaszostek.bsky.social @bohdanakurylo.bsky.social
- Reposted by Paul PoastWashington’s allies “may still hope for U.S. support, but they are also starting to hedge against the possibility that the United States will be absent when problems arise,” write Robert Kelly and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social.
- If you are looking for me on social media, I'm over at LinkedIn. For example, my latest post offers a "thread-like" reflection on the new NSS www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
- Reposted by Paul PoastTrump’s coercive diplomacy is consistent with a long-standing focus of U.S. foreign policy: control of the Western Hemisphere. Read more from columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social:
- Reposted by Paul PoastThough ubiquitous in foreign policy discussions, “the West” is rarely examined or defined. So what is “the West”? That’s not so easy to pin down, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThere are many steps between testing and deploying nuclear weapons, which have never again been used in war since 1945. But any rollback of safeguards is concerning, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastIf Trump follows through on his order to resume explosive testing of the United States’ nuclear weapons, the implications would be significant, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastTrump’s trip to Asia mostly resulted in promises and flattery. But promises alone don’t guarantee follow-through—and that’s often where Trump’s deals break down. Read more in @profpaulpoast.bsky.social’s latest column:
- Reposted by Paul PoastTrump came away from his trip to Asia with many promises, but everything will now depend on follow-through, which is where his deals often break down, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe first phase of Trump’s Gaza peace plan is proving difficult to maintain, and even if it does ultimately hold, there is a fundamental problem that could undermine the later phases, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastPhase 1 of Trump’s Gaza peace plan has mostly been implemented, but as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, the subsequent phases are far less likely to succeed.
- Reposted by Paul PoastRather than learn the lesson that military force is not sufficient to tackle nonstate actors, the Trump administration is doing it again, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe military campaign against alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean could draw the U.S. into a “forever war” of Trump’s making, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThrilled to have an opportunity to revisit Wheat and Strategic Competition for @warontherocks.bsky.social w/ Justin Gilpin CEO Kansas Wheat Commission. We talk a lot about Russia and China and their most recent attempts to use wheat as a tool of statecraft. warontherocks.com/2025/10/how-...
- Reposted by Paul PoastNine months into his presidency, it is clearer than ever that Trump wants to take the United States back to the late 19th century, both domestically and in its relations abroad. So how is he doing in that regard? Columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social examines that question:
- Reposted by Paul PoastIt is now evident that, for Trump, the “again” in Make America Great Again refers to the late 19th century, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastWhat is the best means of crafting and using a military? U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seems to think it is a “warrior ethos.” But as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, Eisenhower offered a much stronger argument:
- Reposted by Paul PoastEisenhower wanted a society made up of Americans who were citizens first and soldiers second, and of soldiers who can behave in polite society, effectively offering a counterargument to the “warrior ethos” Pete Hegseth keeps pushing.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe U.S. defense secretary’s emphasis on warfighting ignores the other important factors that make a military cohesive and effective, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Reposted by Paul PoastIf Patton could have delivered Hegseth’s speech, Eisenhower offered the counterargument in his farewell address. Instead of calling for a warrior culture, he warned of a society so militarized that it prioritized manufacturing weapons over building schools. Great one by @profpaulpoast.bsky.social.
- From now on, I will be focusing on LinkedIn for posting on social media. I'll still use this platform to observe what people are saying, but I will be posting exclusively on LinkedIn. If you don't already follow me there, you can find me here: www.linkedin.com/in/paul-poas...
- President Donald Trump might not be crying for Argentina, but he does seem concerned about the future of the country’s economy. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how the potential "Trump bailout" is just another instance of this time NOT being different.
- IR Book of the Week! "War and Power" by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Book argues that the focus on what makes nations "Great Powers" has led to a skewed our understanding of the true sources of power, particularly in the context of war.
- I shared my thoughts on Trump's "Gaza Peace Plan" 👇 TL,DR: There are some real positives, but unclear it will be accepted, hold, or enforced.
- Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding the Hegseth/Trump speeches: TL,DR -- this was a big mistake by both.
- Additionally, there were a host of comments by Trump & Hegseth that are consistent with this recent @wpr.bsky.social column: www.worldpoliticsreview.com/interstate-w...
- ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment." My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.
- Trump's UN speech was rooted in “an American First foreign policy” and Trump's own vision of the US as the "indispensable nation". That is the thought I shared with @salon.com for this piece www.salon.com/2025/09/27/a...
- Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation. You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...
- The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.
- Here is the column www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article...
- Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social
- IR Book of the Week! "AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.
- I don't mean it in a braggadocious way, but I wrote about how prediction is hard...especially when it comes to world politics. Contrary to Trump's claims, you can't be right about everything.
- Glad I could contribute to this forum on the relevance of the UN after 80 years. I see the UN -- specifically the UNSC -- as largely successful because, "The original purpose of the Security Council was to prevent war between the great powers, not to prevent the great powers from waging war."
- As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️ globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...
- Reposted by Paul PoastAs the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️ globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...
- Reposted by Paul PoastMultilateralism is facing serious challenges. Ian Hurd and Juliet Sorensen join @profpaulpoast.bsky.social to discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the UN's 80th anniversary. 📹 : brnw.ch/21wW01K
- Reposted by Paul PoastMarking #UN80 @global-affairs.bsky.social with a great panel on internationalism and intl institutions, feat. @profpaulpoast.bsky.social, @ianhurd.bsky.social, and Juliet Sorensen
- ICYMI: in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I discuss how an embrace and even enthusiasm for using violence abroad inevitably links back to violence at home.
- With Britain, Canada, and Australia officially recognizing Palestine as a state, I'm re-upping this recent @wpr.bsky.social piece on the topic. Some worry that this recognition rewards Hamas. It's not clear to me how that is the case, since the recognition is conditional on Hamas not being in power.
- During his Riverside sermon, MLK said that when a country embraces "massive doses of violence to solve its problems to bring about the changes it wanted" abroad, that directly leads to embracing the same approach home. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how we are seeing that dynamic today
- It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social
- Reposted by Paul PoastNext week, join @polisciatnu.bsky.social's Ian Hurd, @loyolachicago.bsky.social's Juliet Sorensen, and Council fellows Cécile Shea and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social as they discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary. brnw.ch/21wVTkc
- On Monday, I'm moderating this @global-affairs.bsky.social panel on the Future of the United Nations and Multilaterialism. It's going to be a great discussion. For those interested and in the Chicago area, hope you can make it! globalaffairs.org/events/futur...
- Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.
- Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations. It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)
- ICYMI: I explore "What China Wants?" in my latest @wpr.bsky.social. The TL,DR is that China wants to be at the center, but not the leader, of a new global order.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThis is really interesting. Also properly referenced and with insight / knowledge few I've seen have.
- Just posted a discussion explaining how I identified "What China Wants" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social (explaining that this piece as a mix of "Pundit Paul" and "Professor Poast") 👇
- Just posted a discussion explaining how I identified "What China Wants" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social (explaining that this piece as a mix of "Pundit Paul" and "Professor Poast") 👇
- Reposted by Paul PoastChina might aspire to regional primacy. But when it comes to global hegemony, Xi doesn’t seem to want China to be the “unipolar power,” @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- What does China (or, more specifically, Xi Jinping) want? Are they seeking to overturn the existing international order? Simply reform it? Embrace "hegemony"? I explore those questions -- based on a series of Xi speeches -- in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
- Reposted by Paul PoastWe did the 99 page test for our book Wheat at War. Page 99 jumps right into the shipping problems in WWI. US entry into the war made tonnage concerns SO MUCH WORSE. Interested? See our 99 page test to find out more! page99test.blogspot.com/2025/09/rose...
- Our new book, "Wheat at War", was just put through the "Page 99" test! The test is simple: open any book to page 99. The contents *should* convey the book as a whole. How well did it do? As we explain in the below post, the test worked...to a degree :)
- Just shared my immediate thoughts on Poland invoking NATO's Article 4
- Greatly enjoyed joining the "Clearer than Truth" podcast to discuss current directions is US foreign policy and global order
- Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding Israel's strike in Doha
- "Hegemonism" may not be in "China's DNA" (according to Xi Jinping), but what does China's public want? According to new polling by @global-affairs.bsky.social & @cartercenter.bsky.social, the public is split on being dominant or sharing global leadership.
- “None of this is to say that Trump has ‘bought into’ the idea of maintaining the ‘Liberal International Order’...But Trump does see China as a competitor and is recognizing that Russia under Putin is not keen on aligning with the United States.” Pleased I could offer my views in this Salon piece.
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe Trump administration’s pressure campaign on the Fed is not a global outlier, but there are still reasons to sound the alarms. As @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, that’s because the Fed is special, both domestically and internationally.
- ICYMI: Why you should not be indifferent to Central Bank Independence.
- Reposted by Paul PoastTrump’s pressure campaign against the Fed has global precedents, but its impact is still of outsized importance, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- Central bank independence is a pillar of not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire global monetary system. Trump's desire to undo that independence is the latest example of politicians seeking to undermine that pillar. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-federa...
- 19th Century Presidency Alert 👇 www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/u...
- IR Book of the Week! "So You Want to Own Greenland?" by Elizabeth Buchanan. Trump is only the latest leader to desire controlling the key arctic island. This book explores why and how, going forward, it will be central to the "Great Game" of arctic competition.
- I just my immediate thoughts on the "Axis of Upheaval" gathering in Beijing 👇
- Each summer, I help run the Summer Institute in Social Research Methods (SISRM) at the University of Chicago. This summer we had 80 undergraduates learning about HOW to conduct social science research, and then becoming RAs on faculty research projects. Here is a wonderful write-up of the program!
- The Tianjin summit shows that the Russia-China alliance is as strong as ever. Truly no-limits. If Trump thought he could "pull" Russia away from China, he was mistaken. As I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, you can't manipulate major powers. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-trump-rus...
- The TL,DR: if Trump REALLY likes William McKinley, then he would do what McKinley himself did (while in Congress): pass legislation imposing tariffs, not unilaterally do it by declaring vague emergencies.
- I just posted my immediate thoughts on Trump's Tariffs being declared illegal 👇
- Reposted by Paul Poast“Great powers will not and cannot be pulled or prodded, for the point of being a great power—the very reason, in fact, that states seek to acquire such a status—is that they are free to pursue their own interests.” Read @profpaulpoast.bsky.social’s latest column here:
- Reposted by Paul PoastThe idea that Trump is swaying Russia’s and India’s foreign policies misses a key point about great power politics, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
- The idea that Great Powers (or aspiring great powers) can be pushed or pulled is a delusion. "Reverse Kissinger" to ideas that a policy will send one great power into the arms of another are simply myths. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-trump-rus...
- Our new book, "Wheat at War", is largely a work of history. But does it have any relevance for today? Yes, sadly. From starvation in Gaza, to famine in Sudan, to wheat shortages from War in Ukraine, the nexus of food and war remains as relevant today as it did a century ago.
- ICYMI: The details of diplomacy tell us what a settlement to end the War in Ukraine looks like...and that we're still far from achieving it.
- Folks are rightfully worried that President Trump is compromising the Federal Reserve's independence. As I wrote a year ago for @wpr.bsky.social, because the Fed is arguably the most powerful economic entity in the world, it needs to be as far removed as possible from political machinations.
- Reposted by Paul Poastnew post: open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
- n preparation for teaching this fall, I'm creating a document titled "Abuse and Use of AI in Social Science Research Analysis and Writing". It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task
