Peter du Toit
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
As a big fan of ephemeral social media posts delete after 60 days.
Signal: peterdutoit.com/signal
Website: https://peterdutoit.com
- The modern day USA
- Perhaps it was coincidental timing, but nothing underscores the collapse of the Washington Post like firing most of the Pulitzer prize winning #climate reporters the very same day as their opinion pages publishes a BS screed by climate misinformer Bjorn Lomborg.
- And despite this, the average for the first 3 days of Feb 2026 above preindustrial is +1.59ºC (ERA5) What is going to happen when the RONI turns positive later in the year? #ClimateCrisis
- ICYMI: “It appears W is launching with a fork of Bluesky's social-app client and account hosting on their own PDS.” 👏🏻
- The fossil fuel burning destruction of life on earth continues unabated. This suffering and loss was all avoidable. What did the creatures we share this planet with do to deserve this?
- Reposted by Peter du ToitNEW: The EU’s reversal of the 2035 car CO2 target will create huge uncertainty in the EV market and could cause EV market share to fall between 50-95% by 2035 instead of 100%. The proposal would also push car CO2 emissions 10% higher than under the current target. A breakdown of T&E’s analysis 🧵
- Reposted by Peter du ToitMore than 50 heat records were broken across Australia in the last week of January, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. This is climate change, and it can be lethal.
- Reposted by Peter du ToitThe hydrological situation across a large part of the Iberian Peninsula is alarming, to say the least, and conditions are set to worsen as several powerful atmospheric rivers are forecast; major flooding cannot be ruled out.
- If you live at 34º South then recent research indicates that this region has become a "climate fault line." Here is the story: peterdutoit.com/34-s... #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
- Reposted by Peter du ToitMethane pollution from US oil and gas infrastructure causes more climate change than the entire economies of all but seven nations on earth. (This is with methane's climate impacts conservatively evaluated over a 100-year time frame. Evaluated over shorter time frames, methane's impacts are worse.)
- As the water crisis continues, the residents in Knysna, South Africa have been asked to reduce consumption to 50L per person per day. Here is why: peterdutoit.com/why-... #Adaptation
- Here is what is often not understood: Adaptation has physical limits and when those are reached there is only one option - retreat #ClimateCrisis #Adaptation
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitSuccessive storms have submerged farms across the UK. This is going to increase so we must adapt. But adaptation without phase out of fossil fuels risks being pointless. www.jamesgdyke.info/bbc-radio-4-...
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- "A rapid transition is now underway, with models pointing toward a new El Niño event emerging already in Summer and reaching peak intensity during the 2026/2027 [northern hemisphere] Winter season."
- Reposted by Peter du ToitQuadruple whammy: High exposure, vulnerability, La Niña and human-induced climate change turned very heavy rainfall into a disastrous deluge around the Limpopo, Umbeluzi, Maputo, Incomati, Save and Buzi rivers. - new @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-clim...
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- The small coastal town of Knysna in South Africa has been walking a tightrope trying to avoid Day Zero. I shared some insights into what the plan is and how can track if the plan is working or not.
- This is important of course since the transportation sector is responsible for the most emissions in the US.
- “The majority of Americans are open to living car-free even after decades of car-centric planning, a new survey finds…A stunning 18% of car-owning U.S. residents indicated that they were ‘strongly interested’ in living car-free, and another 40% said that they were ‘open’ to it.” @usa.streetsblog.org
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitPortugal and Spain are looking at tremendous precipitation from an onslaught of atmospheric rivers over the next 14-days. Flooding will certainly be a very real threat if these numbers materialize.
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- Reposted by Peter du Toit“The transformation is astonishing. [Paris] has quietly—& quickly—become one of the most bike-friendly cities in the world. What started as a series of emergency ‘coronapistes’ or pop-up bike lanes, built during the pandemic has evolved into a permanent bike network spanning hundreds of kilometres.”
- Not if but when. At current heating of ~0.3°C per decade we will be there in about 16 years. #ClimateCrisis
- Background global heating is at ~1.5ºC Current avg global CO2 concentrations: 427.07 ppm Global emission from burning fossil fuels keeps rising. Heating will thus continue. We are now 75% certain we will reach 2ºC in ~16yrs at current heating rates What then? www.severe-weather.eu/global-weath...
- This is what you say when you have little to no #ClimateLiteracy. As we continue to heat lack of climate literacy is going to get people killed. It already has at ~1.5°C
- Reposted by Peter du ToitTreat the US government and ICE claims like you'd treat a Russian government claim after they've shot down an airliner or bombed a hospital. America 2026.
- February early warning
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitWhen it comes to climate, the Global South is the future of the Global North. This week a cyclone hit the Med. “One in 50 yrs event” etc. The pics are immense, the damage mostly in Sicily/Calabria. As the Global South knows well, the event was received with much silence by much Italian media.
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- Well they’re not wrong.
- Keep in mind that the sector responsible for most emissions in the US is transportation.
- This is a world at ~1.5ºC We are rapidly moving into the era of physical environment destabilisation. Do you have a resilience plan in place? www.climatecentre.or... #ClimateCrisis
- "Skate where the puck is going, not where it is" and all that.
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitA decade ago if someone from the future came to tell me that at the 2026 WEF in Davos *China* would be leading the charge on climate, and the US would be bolstering fossil fuels and stymying green energy development, I would have not believed them. Yet here we are... [from Bloomberg]
- Small correction in wording used here. “CO₂ emissions from the world's second-largest polluter today and largest historically have started rising again”
- The devastation in Mozambique is staggering. Climate Chaos at ~1.5°C of heating. There is a 75% chance we will cross 2°C We need urgent adaptation because we are completely unprepared 📹 UN OCHA
- Reposted by Peter du ToitTrump: "I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China." Reality: China has far more windfarms than any other country on Earth
- Reposted by Peter du ToitStatus of the most recent monthly-averaged greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Observational data provided by gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
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- Few people are aware of the extreme precipitation event that transpired here over the last few days. Again those who contributed the least to atmospheric pollution bearing the brunt of climate chaos. Heating currently at ~1.5°C
- There is that phrase again: "faster than scientist thought" #ClimateCrisis
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- Just fixed something on the wsocial.eu signup page: #wsocial
- This is the way. Decouple from US tech.
- Reposted by Peter du ToitNew European social network, being launched at Davos, owned by corporate-aligned climate group We Don't Have Time and helmed by a former eBay executive. Tried to find out if it's compatible with any open protocol but no info
- What an absolute joke the US has become. This is one year into project 2025. 3 more to go.
- The ocean will: • Absorb excess heat first • Then redistribute and re-emit it over time We are on a highway to hell.
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- Project 2025 outcomes:
- This is the most astonishing graph of what the Trump regime has done to US science. They have destroyed the federal science workforce across the board. The negative impacts on Americans will be felt for generations, and the US might never be the same again. www.nature.com/immersive/d4...
- NEW mid January IRI ENSO forecast: “According to the January 2026 CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast, the probability of La Niña conditions persisting during Jan–Mar (JFM) 2026 is 31%, while ENSO-neutral conditions are the next most likely outcome, with an estimated probability of 69%.” 1/2
- Reposted by Peter du ToitFor 50 years, global warming had a very consistent trend (+0.19 °C/decade) with a boring, predictable range of natural variations around it. During the last three years, we've broken out above that range, suggesting the pace of change has quickened.
- South Africa is currently dealing with extreme events that are at different ends of the spectrum. Floods, wild fires and drought. As a result many think these are not connected. But they are. Here is why.
- Reposted by Peter du ToitUnderestimated climate risks could undermine global financial system, warn actuaries and scientists - "in the US alone, billion-dollar climate disasters now take place every 19 days" #climatecrisis greenfuturessolutions.com/news/parasol...
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- +11,000 respondents from 117 countries were asked: “Which 5 risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next 2 years?” "Extreme weather events (floods, heatwaves, etc)" was only selected by 15. Only Greece ranked it No. 1 We are COMPLETELY unprepared.
- More on the extreme precipitation event in the north east of South Africa. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitThe dark truth of CEO silence on Trump’s climate retreat ft.trib.al/8XHHEl5 | opinion
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- Reposted by Peter du ToitFrom Argentina to Australia and South Africa, recent devastation shows that while wildfires are not caused by a single factor, a warming climate makes them more frequent, more intense, and more destructive. The Wildfire Management Hub supports prevention and response: bit.ly/4bzoECV
- The climate crisis *will* exploit every structural weakness in every place, illustrated well by the situation unfolding in Knysna, South Africa as they approach day zero. “Knysna has days of water left after years of ‘long-term operational and management failures’” www.dailymaverick.co...
- Let us NEVER forget those who have contributed the least to atmospheric pollution now causing climate chaos and are suffering disproportionately! What you see here is all playing out at ~1.5°C heating. What happens when we cross 2°C in the next decade or so? Reporting: @news.dw.com
- The first half of January 2026 has averaged +1.55ºC above preindustrial Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025) Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place. This is a highway to hell. #ClimateCrisis
- Reposted by Peter du ToitAs the climate data for 2025 continues to be released, it's time to update various data visualisations. First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added. The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.
- Reposted by Peter du ToitWhile our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026. robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
- Reposted by Peter du Toit[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions. berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
- Reposted by Peter du ToitGlobal mean temperature 2025: 1.44 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a synthesis of eight international datasets. 2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest. That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record. wmo.int/news/media-c...
