- On Friday, I argued in @foreignpolicy.com that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous. The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202... Let's take a look... (1/n)
- First off, here's the link to my @foreignpolicy.com piece. (2/n) foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...
Jul 28, 2025 14:43
- Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n) x.com/james_acton3...
- In fact, the source is actually walking back earlier Israeli claims! Previously, Netanyahu said Iran's program had been set back 2-3 years. Now Israel is saying 1-2 years. (4/n) washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
- Moreover, both Netanyahu and Ignatius are being inconsistent in defining success. Netanyahu attacked the Iran Deal on the misleading grounds that its limits only lasted 10 years. Now Israel is claiming a 1-2 year delay is a success. (5/n) bsky.app/profile/nucl...
- Ignatius is also inconsistent. Back in 2015, while generally supportive of the Iran Deal, he argued its 10-year timeframe (again, misleading) meant Obama was making a "big bet." Now, an attack with much shorter-term effects is a success. (6/n) washingtonpost.com/opinions/aft...
- Finally re timeframe, as Eric has observed, the claim that Iran is 1-2 years from the bomb is actually similar to pre-war estimates, including from NETANYAHU himself. (7/n)
- To close, some questions for Ignatius' source. What happens if "activities" are being conducted too far underground for Israel to destroy? Do you expect the U.S. to attack again? If yes, what happens if the activities are too deep for the U.S. to reach? (8/n)
- What's Israel's plan for dealing with the HEU that Israeli officials acknowledge survived the attack? Does Israel know the location of Iran's stockpile of centrifuge components, which have not been under monitoring since 2021 following the Iran Deal's collapse? (9/n)
- The U.S. did not even try to collapse the very deep tunnels at Isfahan where most of Iran's HEU was stored. Are you concerned that, in reality, the United States has clearly signaled the limits of ability to destroy underground facilities with nonnuclear weapons? (10/n)
- Given the U.S. developed the uranium metal production process in the 1940s in a university lab with equipment from the 1920s, why do you suppose Iran will struggle to replicate the process outside of Isfahan? (11/n)
- And, finally, given that hope is not a strategy, what's your plan to keep Iran in the NPT and to accept inspections--including of the 60% HEU that Israeli officials acknowledged survived the strikes. (12/12)
