- Assuming the $300 MM #NGAD PCA estimate (shared by Frank Kendall) is in 2018/20$, you are looking at a 30-50% ⬆️ unit cost for #NGAD compared to F-22A (adj for same year $) . Folks forget that in FY07, the fly-away and weapon system unit cost of F-22A exceeded $130MM & $170MM respectively.Jan 1, 2025 17:20
- For those who may question the fidelity of estimates, note that we've been investing in the system since 2014- 2 years after we took delivery of last F-22A. Demonstrators were in the budget by 2014, and contracts awarded in 2016 and flying by 18/19. NGAP funded starting 2018.
- Suffice to say that the 2023 RFP that was shared with industry included lessons learnt from a decade of tech dev, maturation & RR. Exiting TMRR & entering source selection/EMD is a big milestone. NGAD FoS: 🔸Has a huge R&D bill ($7-10 Bn / year (peak)) 🔸Expensive manned PCA
- Collaborative Combat Aircraft are expected to be cheap and 'attritable' elements of #NGAD FoS. While they may be cheap to buy & operate, the autonomy, and other elements of CCA's will not be cheap to develop. USAF intends to spend $3 Bn in FY28 on CCA RDT&E vs $4 Bn for PCA👇
- For reference, by FY27, the CCA R&D bill will exceed what the Air Force plans to spend on development of F-35 C2D2 / modernization which is expected to fall from about $1.2 Bn a year today to $980 MM in FY29. In Contrast, CCA R&D will exceed $1.5 Bn by FY27 and $3 Bn by FY28.
