Menzie Chinn
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
- Trade balance improvement less marked when stripping out gold #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Do announced layoffs Granger cause actual layoffs (at quarterly basis)? Ans: Yes! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Jeff Frankel on an American Caligula #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- How fast is Chinese GDP growing in Q3? 5% vs. 4% (@bofit.suomenpankki.fi ) or less ( @rhg.com ) or near trend ( SF Fed CCAT for Q2)? (and what is trend anyways?) @johnfernald.bsky.social Mark Spiegel #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnThis chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
- I guess this is a "risk-off" period... #EconSky
- 0.93% y/y CPI inflation as of today. Truflation says so... @heritagefdn.bsky.social chief economist #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty: econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home? In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term. 🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...
- Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Warsh on Fed -- ambiguous implications for long rates #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnI can think of several reasons why this won’t happen, and capital controls is just one of them. 🇨🇳 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Xi Jinping calls for China’s renminbi to attain global reserve currency status
- Exchange rate pass through (as the dollar falls), and tariff pass through (as they reach record highs) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Trends in imports (?): expenditure reduction (via policy uncertainty), expenditure switching (via tariffs), or both #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- PPI upside surprise - instantaneous inflation #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- You say DSGE, I say Model-Consistent Expectations... Let's call the whole thing off! (apologies to Gershwin) Kevin Warsh on the drawbacks of FRB/US #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Steven Kamin & Mark Sobel on threats to dollar dominance, incl. assault on "rule of law" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnImmigrants in the US consumed about 24% fewer welfare and entitlement benefits per capita than native-born Americans in 2023, new Cato Institute research finds. Learn more from Alex Nowrasteh and Jerome Famularo: ow.ly/2w4Z50Y4Bsj
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Consumer confidence collapses #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Donald Trump is unworried about the value of the dollar; I think we should be worried abt *why* the dollar is weakening (credibility v. inflation) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- De jure financial openness in the world, 2023 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Economic Policy Uncertainty in these times #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnDHS has shot 12 people during immigration enforcement operations since September:
- Uncertainty regarding where we were, where we are, and where we're going (output-wise) #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @wsj.com econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn“There are no sidelines any more, friends.” - @philtajitsunash.bsky.social 1942. Mochida Family awaiting deportation in Centerville, CA. Photo by Dorothea Lange. 2026. Five year old Liam Ramos taken away by ICE returning home from pre-school, Photo via Columbus Heights Elementary, Minneapolis.
- Jeffry Frieden on "The New Political Economy of US Trade" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Bond yield still elevated relative to pre-Saturday #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- EJ Antoni should be calling a manufacturing recession #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Another entry in "destroying the American economy at full-speed" 10yr Trsy, VIX, CDS, SP500 & DXY #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- WSJ survey: point estimate vs. 20% trimmed band #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- @wsj.com mean forecast vs CBO and GS tracking and pre-2025 trend #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- What if the Supremes strikedown IEEPA before Feb 1 "Greenland" tariffs? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Real retail sales (prel.) beat expectations, but only back to August levels #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Grocery prices up 9% m/m annualized in December; and no Starbucks for you (coffee prices)! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- The gold market did not get the memo - gold prices post DoJ, post-Tillis #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Responses to the Trump's assault on the Fed - an event study demonstrating ... [fill in blank] #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Why friends don't let friends do m/m comparisons of employment changes between CES and CPS series (especially if they want to be @usbls.bsky.social commissioner), and why the "Great Replacement" employment view is wrong (and despicable) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Wide dispersion in Q4 GDP nowcasts & tracking estimates, while employment and monthly GDP continue to diverge #EconSky @spgmarketintel.bsky.social @atlantafed.org @newyorkfed.bsky.social @stlouisfed.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnVideo message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG... www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn[Not loaded yet]
- Lots of NFP series look past peak (even w/o Powell conjecture) @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @usbls.bsky.social #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- In 3 qtrs, Trump has increased Fed debt held by public to (potential) GDP by more than Biden did in 4 years #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Wisconsin thanks Drumpf! Real goods exports, mfg employment down since end-2024 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Reposted by Menzie ChinnSending another 2,000 armed, masked, armored, federal agents to our community makes us less safe. Makes us unable to live free. Makes death. Makes orphans. www.mpschools.org
- Reposted by Menzie Chinn
- Accelerating downward mfg employment fm ADP, BLS CES & QCEW #EconSky @usbls.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Avg effective tariff rate thru Oct #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Most business cycle indicators flat relative to 9 mos ago, incl employment #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- @usbls.bsky.social Dec report - *private* NFP change < consensus; 121K downward revisions in Nov, Oct. #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- West Coast Wkshp Int'l Finance CfP, Apr 10th (deadline Jan 16) econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Employment past peak? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- ADP private NFP < consensus, large firm empl flat, mfg empl down #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
- Subprime auto ABS deterioration #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
