Max Warner
Economist at the IFS working on health and social care, public spending and public sector productivity ifs.org.uk/people/max-warner
- Reposted by Max WarnerThere is an increasing sense that the UK's approach towards fiscal policymaking, and in particular the excessive focus on "headroom", isn't delivering good outcomes. Come along on 19 February to hear me make the case for how we could do things differently, and to hear from our terrific panel.
- Reposted by Max WarnerThe @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!
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- Reposted by Max WarnerDHSC published its impact statement for the 10 Year Health Plan this week (yes, that is 6 months after it published the plan) It's more measured and clear-eyed than the original document and quite a contrast to some of the effusive optimism in the plan Some of the things that caught my eye 👇
- Reposted by Max WarnerThere's now data out about the resident doctor strikes last month So how disruptive did they end up being? And what can we say about how the NHS is responding to ongoing strikes? Short 🧵👇
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- Reposted by Max WarnerNew ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
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- Reposted by Max WarnerA short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published. We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.
- Reposted by Max WarnerNEW: How did the introduction of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) change London’s geography of work? In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread. 1/
- NHS England has now produced two sets of productivity growth rates for each NHS acute trust. These are year-on-year growth rates, only 3 months apart (so have a 9 month overlap). But what's striking is that they are essentially uncorrelated!? [1/2]
- What's going on? Could productivity in individual trusts really be bouncing around so much? Definitely raises questions about how informative this measure is - we've always found it surprising how high and low some of the changes are [2/2]
- Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...) www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
- NEW: Hospital productivity growth is beating the government’s targets. So why hasn't the NHS made more progress on cutting elective waiting times? In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities. 1/11
- NHS England figures suggest that productivity grew by 2.7% in 2024–25. But the waiting list fell from 7.5 million to just 7.4 million between Mar 2024 and Mar 2025, and the % of patients waiting <18wks increased from 57.2% to 59.8%. This is not stellar progress. 2/11
- Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...
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- Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.
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- One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending: For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
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- We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth
- NEW: Honouring the NATO commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state. @maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending: [THREAD:]
- We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets
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- Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social. ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
- Reposted by Max WarnerWhen and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
- There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:
- @benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades
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- Reposted by Max WarnerSpending on the new childcare entitlements next year could be £1bn higher than initially forecast in March 2023 - a 25% increase. So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.
- Great work from my colleagues out today on Crown Court productivity. A relatively good news story for broader public sector productivity, with complexity adjusted Crown Court productivity appearing to have returned to pre-pandemic levels
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- This is a key point from our pre Spending Review report. Increasing NHS capital spending implies cuts to capital spending on other areas, e.g. transport, schools or net zero, given defence plans. Seems unlikely the NHS will see a large increase in capital spending at the SR.
- We have a new IFS report out on the key decisions for the govt at the upcoming Spending Review. A short thread on what the Spending Review could mean for health spending – and why health spending matters so much for everything else. 1/12
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- Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
- We have a new report out on the relationship between health-related benefits and NHS waiting lists/times. Short answer (with caveats) is that longer NHS waits do not appear to be the main driver of rising health-related benefit claims. See Ben's thread below for more details and lots of charts.
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