Martha Gimbel
Sometimes Econ, sometimes rants, sometimes both. Current Budget Lab at Yale, former CEA, JEC, DOL, SF, Indeed.
- Just so the Econ crew is aware - the homeowner here is Leo Feler
- Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
- If you know someone who might fit the bill - please send them our way! Happy to answer any questions.
- New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- If you’re questioning the integrity of BLS statistics “because ADP” I cannot help you
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel
[Not loaded yet] - Reposted by Martha GimbelScratching my head at the CEA estimate that their economic plan will lower debt/GDP by at least 3pp in FY 2025. There are only 3 months left in FY 2025. And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
- CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth
- A reminder that today is Tony’s day so if you don’t want theater tweets all night mute me now
- I finally got the email I’ve been expecting for weeks: my baby’s diaper brand is throwing in the towel and raising prices due to “global economic factors and rising material costs”
- USA USA USA www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/h...
- Everybody stop what you’re doing and read @jasonfurman.bsky.social on why trade is good actually www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/o...
- Work requirements and price controls - what a Sunday night
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- Has anyone ever pulled together or done (or seen) a task similarity matrix for the O*Net tasks? Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
- So I just picked up the phone and got hit with a new scam: someone tried to tell me they were with CBP and I had to give them $100 to get the package I ordered into the country. So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!
- Reposted by Martha Gimbel[Not loaded yet]
