- Yglesias conceptualize the idea of uncertainty: challenge rating --- impossible
- We have no idea where Yglesias got his numbers but they’re wrong. This debate has for so long been plagued by numbers basically pulled out of thin air Right pic is from my and @adambonica.bsky.social’s response essay: www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
- When forecasting future elections, uncertainty with regards to temporal drift is a far bigger factor than individual candidates shifting their ideology. Look at these uncertainty intervals! anyone who says that taking X position will improve your results by Y +/- 0.5pp is underestimating uncertaintyFeb 3, 2026 17:54
