Librarian Capital
Investing/stocks. Ex. HF seeking ideas, contacts & capital. I may be long/short names mentioned. @LibrarianCap on Twitter. Also Substack librariancapital.substack.com
- "Epstein advised former prince’s team on proposed deal with Cantor Fitzgerald" (FT) "Payments worth millions of pounds were expected Annually" "The discussions ... include some over a proposed “HL loan” — an apparent reference to Howard Lutnick"
- Alphabet $GOOG 25Q4 Q4 revenues +18%, incl: Google Ad +13.6% (Search +17%, YouTube Ads +9%, Network -2%) Google Cloud +48% EBIT +16% Net Income +30%, EPS +31% FY revenues +15%, EBIT +15%, EPS +34% Q4 CapEx $27.9bn (+95% y/y; Q3: $24.0bn)
- "Mark Sheppard, manager of the £409m (Manchester & London Investment Trust $MNL) tech trust, cut his 21.8% exposure to Microsoft $MSFT to just 4.8% over the past week as losses ramped up at the tech giant, which is down 13.5% over the past week"
- REA Ltd. $REA is much larger than Rightmove $RMV For REA's FY25 ending 30-Jun: Revenues: £857m (A$1,673m) vs. £409m Net Income: £289m (A$564m) vs. £204m Market cap: £12.0bn (A$23.5bn) vs. £3.4bn Note REA also grew faster than RMV (revenue +15% vs. +8.6% for REA's FY25)
- In M&A/LBO due diligence, it's nearly always a bad sign when you find the target's Finance team building their own Excel spreadsheets for everything Lack of control and standardization is a big problem Now imagine every team in the company vibe coding their own CRM, ERP, etc.
- A bunch of Industrial and Consumer stocks up 3-5% Croda $CRDA +5% Brown-Forman $BF.B +5% Pernod Ricard $RI +5% Diageo $DGE +4% Greggs $GRG +4% Bunzl $BNZL +4% Otis $OTIS +3% Also: Rémy Cointreau $RCO +9% No apparent reason, except some people really want to get out of Software
- "How Anthropic achieved AI coding breakthroughs — and rattled business" "Technologists suggest Anthropic’s advances will undermine the economics of software development and squeeze specialist providers" If this is why people are selling, they are wrong
- Private bankers are often bad investors, Jeffrey Epstein edition "Barrett traded everything from currency options to shares ... (but) appears to have generated little in the way of trading profits, however, seemingly falling out with the financier due to his underwhelming performance"
- "Quality"-focused long-only portfolios have a self-healing power, because the positions where you are right get larger and the mistakes get smaller But, if you cap the no. of positions to be concentrated, the mistakes take up valuable slots You must sell your mistakes
- Spirax $SPX up 7.6% (in £) since 25H1 results 13-Nov update saw Q3 slowdown in global Industrial Production, but Spirax Jan-Oct organic sales growth and Adj. EBIT Margin were both ahead of H1 2025 outlook for Adj. EBIT +MSD organic ~25x 2025 consensus EPS (Cash Converson ~80%)
- Rightmove $RMV At 452p, 16.9x 2024 EPS, 5.7% FCF Yield Last update 7-Nov - Reaffirmed 2025 guide with revenue +8%, Underlying EBIT Margin 70%, implying UL EBIT +8.5% - But extra spend means EBIT growth will be 3-5% in 2026, accelerating to ≥12% by 2030 FY results due 27-Feb
- CoStar $CSGP: DE Shaw letter "By the end of this year, CoStar will have spent more than $3bn on Homes.com & diverted the majority of core business earnings over the last 4 years to fund this venture" Says CSGP is shifting Homes.com expenses to core cc: $RMV
- Microsoft $MSFT Copilot "Running Into Big Problems" (WSJ) "Previously unreported data* shows Copilot subscribers, incl. those with corporate accounts, are increasingly favoring competing options" "Lack of a cohesive experience" * Recon Analytics survey
- "Banks seek out new buyers for Oracle $ORCL data centre loans" "$56bn+ worth of data centre construction loans ... have been given investment-grade ratings" Lawyer: "Almost all large [data centre] deals are trying to get a credit rating now" $MCO $SPGI
- Novo Nordisk $NOVO share down 16% after releasing 2026 guidance that sees reveneu fallnig 5-13% ex-FX Here is what Terry Smith wrote about it last month
- Lindsell Train UK Equity: Top 4 holdings, which added up to 38%+ of the portfolio, are down 20-30% in a month $LSEG $SGE $EXPN $REL That's an ~9% hit to the portfolio on its own
- Reposted by Librarian CapitalThey’re taking children from Minnesota and locking them up like criminals in detention camps in Texas. For the love of God, send our kids home and bring an end to this nightmare. www.startribune.com/walz-demands...
- Ken Griffin on Trump: "US gov. starts to engage in corporate America in a way that tastes of favoritism" "Decisions or courses that have been very, very enriching to the families of those in the administration ... is the public interest being served?"
- "OpenAI’s ChatGPT push triggers senior staff exits" (FT) OpenAI "has reallocated resources for experimental work in favour of advances to the LLMs that power" ChatGPT "Teams working on video and image generation models ... felt neglected and under resourced" $MSFT $GOOG
- HP $HPQ only announcing Enrique Lores exit today "Enrique Lores ... has stepped down as President and CEO and as a member of the Board to pursue another professional opportunity" He's been chairing PayPal while CEO of HP, and the Board he chairs has given him the $PYPL CEO job
- "Tens of billions wiped off media and financial data groups after Anthropic AI launch" (FT) S&P Global $SPGI -10.9% Moody's $MCO -8.2% MSCI $MSCI -7.2% Is AI going to replace credit ratings and indices? www.ft.com/content/48ec...
- Philip Morris $PM above $180 again before Fri results This marks a ~20% gain (with dividends) in 2.5 months since this self-described "HF manager" claimed to have been shorting the stock
- Reposted by Librarian CapitalA UAE investor secretly gave Trump $187 million and his top Middle East envoy $31 million. And then Trump gave that investor access to sensitive defense technology that broke decades of national security precedent. Brazen, open corruption. And we shouldn't pretend it's normal.
- PayPal $PYPL 25Q4 TM$ ex. interest on float +4% in Q4, +6% FY FY25 EPS $5.41 GAAP, $5.31 Non-GAAP FY26 guide for Non-GAAP EPS to be down LSD to slightly positive, GAPP EPS to be down MSD CEO Alex Chriss exits immediately Chair Enrique Lores to be CEO 3/1 CFO to be interim CEO
- Two reviews of same book: WSJ: "Grantham frequently marvels at the dimwittedness of GMO’s competition ... contemptuous of the Wall Street “strategists” ... despises the memory of one “typical chinless twit” ... One can almost hear — “What fools these mortals be”" FT: "His humility comes through"
- Ashland $ASH FY26Q1 (Oct-Dec) Sales -3% ex. disposals, -5% reported Life Sciences +4% Personal Care -1% ex. disposals ("generally muted demand", "pricing down modestly in select end markets") Adj. EBITDA -3% ex. disposals cc $CRDA
- Grok now uses the Jeffrey Epstein / Elon Musk exchange below as evidence Musk declined invitations to Epstein parties LOL h/t Ryan Mac
- "Legal Software Stocks Plunge as Anthropic Releases New AI Tool" "Tool can automate legal work like contract reviewing, NDA triage, briefings & templated responses" "RELX, Wolters Kluwer both fell >10%" Fundsmith new $WKL position at 2026 start -18% YTD www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
- Xero $XRO +2.6% after investor briefing Shares halved vs. Jun-25 peak and down 26% L5Y Briefing focus on US opp. with Melio, acquired Jun-25 for $2.5bn FY26H1 results (Nov-25): Op. Revenues +18% ex-FX (US +23% ex-Xerocon) Adj. EBITDA +12% Net Profit NZD135m FCF 321m Market cap. NZD19bn
- "France adopts budget after premier survives no-confidence vote" (FT) "Macron was also cornered into extending a supposedly one-year tax on companies that generate more than €1bn in sales in France" This was said to cost L'Oréal $OR €250m (3.7% of 2024 Net Profit) in 2025
- Jeffrey Epstein loved Brexit "Brexit, just the beginning" "Finding things on their way to collapse, was much easier than finding the next bargain" h/t davetroy, carlquintanilla on Twitter
- Nearly half of Epstein files not released "DOJ identified over 6 million records but is releasing only about 3.5 million after review and redactions", according to Rep. Ro Khanna (CNBC)
