A small effect, on the margin, on average, of moderation does not mean every moderate candidate means that much better, and you can just add that much to the vote share and look at the resulting electoral map. Rather, it means the win probability for such candidates increases slightly.
Yglesias conceptualize the idea of uncertainty: challenge rating --- impossible
Feb 3, 2026 17:57My complaint about the moderation debate isn't that moderate might, on average, help some candidates in very close districts. My complaint is that it is a drunkard's search, looking for keys under the lamppost because that's where there's light, not because that's where the keys will be found
