- 1/New article! 🧵#internationalrelations #ukraine #russia #security with awesome William Lippert Under what conditions do the more powerful states in an adversarial conventional arms control (CAC) agreement accept a reduction in their relative military power? www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Mar 27, 2025 21:49
- 2/Scholars have rarely empirically assessed if and how CAC agreements alter the military balance that existed pre-agreement.
- 3/We developed and tested a theoretical model that predicted the effect of a CAC agreement on the status quo based on the perceptions of geopolitical stability, the military balance, and resource constraints.
- 4/We hypothesized that resource considerations are a necessary but insufficient condition of military balance status quo agreement outcome. We tested our hypothesis on 29 European CAC agreements.
- 5/Our findings indicated that in 7 out of 29 cases the status quo was altered, and the actual outcomes matched the expected outcomes in 23 of the 29 cases.
- 6/These findings offer new theoretical insights into CAC agreement formulation and may also help practitioners establish realistic negotiating approaches.
