Jonas Haslbeck
Postdoc @ University of Amsterdam; working on Applied Statistics, Time Series Modeling, Dynamical Systems, Generative AI, Climate Change; www.jonashaslbeck.com
- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck📢 Call for Papers: We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
- Excited to share a new call for papers for a special issue in Psychometrika focused on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics that I'll be guest editing with @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, @leonievogelsmeier.bsky.social, and Ben Domingue: www.psychometricsociety.org/post/call-sp...
- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck🌟📝 Just out in World Psychiatry: Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckAfter 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data. If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition. eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckBig new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
- 🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨 In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
- Time series analysis is surging in psychological research and VAR models have become a popular choice to model these data yet, our review of 43 published VAR papers shows that only 4 (9,3%) perform any form of residual analysis.
- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck🚨 Mapping climate change coverage In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
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- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵 🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckWe built the openESM database: ▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place ▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software ▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python Find out more: 🌐 openesmdata.org 📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
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- Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
- While Emmeke Aart's R-package mHMMbayes already allows estimating multilevel HMMs, there has been no easily accessible tutorial on how to use these models and no evaluation of how well these models can be estimated in situations typical for psychology research.
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckExperts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckAre climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned? We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
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- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckWhat a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckTime flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC! Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckThe second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions! Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckThe second edition of ACSCC is officially underway! We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
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- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck1/3 Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with: - Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding - Models to get some first insights - Further reading boxes for more advanced topics - Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
- New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)
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- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckAre psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵
- Statistical Evidence in Psychological Networks: A Bayesian Analysis of 294 Networks from 126 Studies: osf.io/62ydg/
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- Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck⏳ 10 days left to apply! ⏳ There are only 10 days left to apply for @acscc.bsky.social hosted at @iasamsterdam.bsky.social! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate people on challenges related to climate change: acscc.nl
- Emotions are reactions to situations we encounter in daily life. In our new paper in Psych Review (psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...; with @oisinryan.bsky.social and @fdabl.bsky.social), we take a first step towards building a generative model for emotion dynamics based on this simple principle 1/4
- Despite the fact that our model is extremely simple and clearly incomplete, it already reproduces nine statistical phenomena which have been established in the emotion time series literature. 2/4
- Reposted by Jonas HaslbeckThis is a collaborative effort with amazing colleagues: Lourens Waldorp, Nikola Sekulovski, and @jmbh.bsky.social. 🙌 Thanks to this team for their hard work in advancing Bayesian methods in network analysis!
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- We have an opening for a PhD on creating simulation models guiding the selection of treatments for mental disorders at the University of Amsterdam with the NSMD consortium: www.academictransfer.com/en/347555/ph...
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