- NEW from me. In the @washingtonpost.com. I examine the emerging debt crises that are destabilizing the British and French governments - and how America faces similar economic & fiscal challenges on an even deeper level. 🧵 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Sep 17, 2025 21:36
- All 3 countries face: 1) Aging population and low fertility - which along with productivity slows econ growth. 2) It also means deficits from soaring old-age spending & slowing tax revenues. 3) Interest rates steeply rising on these growing deficits
- The U.K. is in deep trouble, and after last year's tax hikes were plowed into new spending, the deficit continued growing amid calls for even larger tax hikes.
- Surging debt recently collapsed the French government, which also had its debt downgraded. Same issues: - Aging population and low fertility rates slow economic economic growth & tax revenues. - Senior benefit costs soar. - Resulting deficits worsened by rising interest rates.
- Which brings us to the U.S., and our deficits headed towards $4 trillion within a decade and as high as 250% of GDP within three decades. First, the demographic challenge is raising senior benefit costs while limiting taxpaying workers.
- Second, retiring boomers and low fertility rates (and likely immigration limits) are strangling long-term economic growth by limiting the number of workers. It means all growth must come from labor productivity, which itself is not great.
- Third, the last hope was that the resulting budget deficits could at least be funded with low interest rates. Instead, interest costs have tripled to $1 trillion and are the 2nd largest budget item after Social Security - and may double again within a decade. So even more debt.
- America has a longer leash than France and the U.K. because were a huge, powerful economy and the world's reserve currency. But eventually, the laws of math and economics always win, and the chaos of France and Britain will head our way unless we get out ahead and reform.
- (And before you shout "easy, just the tax rich!", watch the video below. It can save some money, but nearly enough). bsky.app/profile/jess...
- NEW from me. My new video for @reason.com says fine, tax the rich, but recognize that it cannot eliminate more than a small fraction of the soaring budget deficits. And no, those old 91% tax rates and the European tax systems do not prove otherwise. www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0x1...