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There are three types of social scientists:
Pornographers, plumbers, and social justice warriors
🧵
All economists should read AI 2027. Slow adoption and diffusion is a correct prediction for all past transformative technologies. But AI is different. The essential difference is the capacity for self-improvement w/ superhuman software engineering.
It remains a civilizational failing that you can't challenge people like @oren_cass and Peter Navarro to proper intellectual duels to reveal them as the complete charlatans they are.
Replacing the H1B lottery with something based on wages makes sense, but we need exceptions for brilliant young people who often are underpaid due to career stage dynamics (in econ lit: "career concerns"). If you are under 30 and score high enough on the GRE, we should let you in.
My take is "Foucault's Pendulum." Trump believes in the narrative he and his followers create for themselves. He believes tariffs are good because that's what he said (for reasons beyond his recollection). His followers built rationalizations. He can't change course.
If you don’t think economics nomenclature is important, think about how GDP growth would be 1 percentage point higher this year if “trade deficits” were called “trade differences.”
Just heard from a family friend who is literally a prince from Denmark, first-rate fencer, skilled theater director, and can talk to ghosts -- rejected at all the Ivies, waitlisted at Stanford, accepted at Duke (they should rename it "Commoner"). Ridiculous!
An underdiscussed alternative to pre-registration for observational data analysis: research assistants should keep a log file for all data analysis they do, and this file should be posted publicly along with any published papers.
There is a common cognitive error I call, "The Bridge Builder's Fallacy": the idea that you can easily tell from observation whether something works. If you build a bridge and it doesn't collapse, it's a good bridge. Many successful people believe everything works this way.
Good AI writing (coming soon) shows how much authors draw on literature rather than life. It proves right "The Anxiety of Influence": writers want to express dimensions of experience, but instead they are imitating and recombining writing they have seen before.
Academics (including myself) infrequently update their personal websites after they get tenure. What happens when you win the Nobel Prize?
This is a current screenshot of Paul Milgrom's personal website:
Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24:
cowles.yale.edu/conferences/...
@jabaluck.bsky.socialCowles Summer Conference Paper Submission Form
