- 📌 New paper alert!!! 1/5 How is the spread of epidemics shaped by both random walks and commuting? We answer this question in this paper appeard in Physical Review E by @pvalganon.bsky.social, A Brotons, @sorianopanos.bsky.social & @gomezgardenes.bsky.social 👇
- 2/5 We developed a metapopulation formalism in which the key parameter is the “return” probability, blending commuting and exploratory behaviors in a balanced way: High return → more commuting 🚌 (agents quickly go back), low return → more exploration 🧭 (random walks).Mar 28, 2025 14:12
- 3/5 By creating the new generation matrix, we obtain the epidemic threshold ⚠️. Interestingly, it depends on how frequently agents return versus how much they roam: Random-walk–dominated dynamics (low return, high mobility) typically yield a higher threshold for 🦠 to spread!
- 4/5 We then explore the “invasion” threshold (i.e. how local outbreaks can become global 🌏) for low mobility scenarios. Agents with low exploratory behavior spend less time in new places, reducing the spread window and raising the required mobility to generate a global epidemic.
- 5/5 Overall, our study pinpoints that balancing commuting and roaming can help contain outbreaks without drastic traffic cuts, offering insights for targeted interventions that reduce the risk of global epidemic spread. More info at: journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
