Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Thread and comments. NB: “So, the fundamental problem is a basic difference between the US and China on the future of Taiwan and an increasing willingness to threaten and probably use force to resolve that issue. New START is just a casualty of that dynamic.”
My own very niche academic opinion: the expiry of New START won't spark a new arms race in and of itself. But its end is indicative of a deteriorating security environment that will involve some arms racing and more importantly a significantly heightened risk of a major war.
