Alan Wager
Politics, public opinion and public policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Email: a.wager@institute.global
- Reposted by Alan WagerModest Maus
- Reposted by Alan WagerI did a piece for @brookings.edu trying to make sense of what's going on in British politics. Back to the future? British politics in 2026 www.brookings.edu/articles/bac...
- Reposted by Alan Wager
- Reposted by Alan WagerGervais’s Law: celebrities should never share their political views except in a sitcom, Netflix comedy special or national arena tour where they can pretend they’re just joking even when they’re clearly not
- Reposted by Alan WagerThe revelations regarding Lord Mandelson are indefensible. Yet I fear they will also not surprise or shock as many as they should given the toxicity that now infects our body politic and its working cultures. 1/2
- Reposted by Alan WagerWhy has Peter Mandelson held such clout in so many Labour administrations? On the day Starmer suggests he should no longer be a peer, listen to @pippacrerar.bsky.social and I explain his political power. www.theguardian.com/politics/aud...
- Reposted by Alan WagerChuffed, excited and a little scared to be starting what, if was was young, I’d call an ‘exciting new chapter’ complete with middle aged look.
- Reposted by Alan WagerFreedom is not free, the slogan goes, Note that new Dutch govt intends to fund part of its defence and security ramp up with a "freedom contribution”, ie income tax levy, raising more than €3 billion a year. That is brave for modern politics. But the right choice IMHO.
- Reposted by Alan WagerJust a reminder that my new book on the Blair years is in the @manchesterup.bsky.social SALE right now - and it's only £12 in hardback! You've got until Saturday night to snap up the bargain... manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/
- Reposted by Alan WagerThis is just such a funny quirk on this site. Tons of people are using AI. The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going anywhere
- Reposted by Alan WagerTell me again how this BBC editorialising is just my cognitive bias... This isn't a quote from anywhere. It's just the BBC's description of this disgraced, divisive politician.
- Reposted by Alan WagerThis is quite the high street data tool www.theguardian.com/business/ng-...
- Reposted by Alan WagerBusiness rate relief for pubs and music venues will be welcomed across Walthamstow - many are much loved local institutions. But so too are our cafes, restaurants and even soft play centres that also need the same help with running costs. share this to support hospitality venues for all ages!
- Reposted by Alan Wager[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Alan WagerMore members of Liz Truss's cabinet are in Reform than in Badenoch's shadow cabinet...
- Reposted by Alan WagerSure, but the NEC are the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party and the question they had to answer was what was best for the Labour Party. Luckily for all of us, the voters will pass judgement.
- Reposted by Alan Wager"There are few more impressive sights in the world than a Scotsman on the make"
- And Patrick Maguire says it will (probably) happen. Labour Kremlinologist fans, choose your fighter!
- Reposted by Alan Wagerobviously correct!
- @bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens. This is particularly striking:
- Reposted by Alan WagerTory MP Simon Hoare has given a very vivid quote about Donald Trump's comments on Nato allies, which could actually be used in many contexts about the US president: "Frankly Trump makes my flesh creep and my stomach turn. Where are his advisors? Where is his nurse? Where is his sense of shame?"
- McSweeney in zugzwang
- Reposted by Alan WagerStarmer maybe rightly doesn’t take bait each time but he needs an outrider - a semi-licensed “off message” attack dog - to make Haw-Haw Farage pay for sucking up to the guy who denigrates British war dead.
- No doubt this is correct reporting. But it really is peak Labour, risible, tail wagging dog, wood from trees etc etc. In any case, isn’t it likely a surge in membership subs would cover this cost?
- Reposted by Alan WagerSo it was Badenoch *personally* who stabbed Britain in the back during the Greenland crisis! Simply unbelievable. Ought to be a resignation matter. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
- Reposted by Alan Wager24% of people who voted Labour at the last general election now plan to vote Green or Lib Dem. 0% of those who voted Reform at the last election now plan to vote Labour.
- Reposted by Alan WagerVery strong demand at this morning's gilt auction - bids worth 3.66 times the £4.75 billion on offer for a 4% gilt due in 2029. It ranks as the 9th strongest out of the 1,208 auctions held since 1998. DMO said to be ecstatic, someone has broken out a packet of Blue Ribands.
- New, from @gelliottmorris.com, for those in the market for some hope. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
- Reposted by Alan WagerThey got so so much wrong. And we are all paying the price.
- Reposted by Alan WagerIn the face of Trump’s threats, Britain’s best path is clearer than ever: hurry back to Europe | Stella Creasy
- Deeper and urgent economic and security integration with Europe, without the side order of ‘leaving NATO’ and ‘unilateral nuclear disarmament’. A path forward to react to this crisis without abandoning principles and allies, from @stellacreasy.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- Reposted by Alan WagerSingle most interesting data point over the medium term is the decline in the health number.
- Reposted by Alan Wager"He said he wanted to see the UK give up its nuclear weapons, saying he would try to persuade other nuclear-armed countries – including Russia – to do the same." What an optimistic fellow.
- EXC: Zack Polanski tells us Britain should consider closing US military bases, leave Nato and denuclearise, as he begins to flesh out the Greens’ foreign policy. Also spells out to @pippacrerar.bsky.social and me his red lines in any coalition talks to come. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
- Reposted by Alan WagerTell you what. Not a great time to be a mid-sized nation going it alone
- The Green Party are – to put it politely – leading with their chin by using this crisis to advocate for unilateral nuclear disarmament.
- Reposted by Alan WagerOUT NOW: Power Failure: A new theory of power New report by @philtinline.bsky.social argues we need a new ‘theory of power’ to understand where power lies & how it should be redistributed – so govt can get things done and restore trust. Full report ⬇️ www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/pow...
- Reposted by Alan Wager🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨 New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of: 1) bottom-up public demand 2) elites are neglecting it 3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it tinyurl.com/44ryyybc 🧵
- Good thread. You’d hope some lessons had been learned from the opportunity costs accrued after not making the strategy case for military spending to the public. But you suspect the response at this press conference will be a similarly missed opportunity.
- Reposted by Alan WagerPeople like Ferguson really should be run out of public life for having delivered such wrong-headed analysis.
- Reposted by Alan WagerWith a world this uncertain we need scrutiny and debate even more to work through what is the principled and progressive choice to make - that’s why today I voted against using secondary legislation to make major changes and why I will keep advocating for true Labour, not blue Labour.
- Reposted by Alan WagerGood piece on Labour's current electoral dilemma, featuring plenty of discussion of recent political science research, including some graphs from "The British General Election of 2024" (via the excellent post on the book from @samfr.bsky.social ) labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
- Reposted by Alan WagerI don’t think we’ve got the Brexit people voted for. Our traders face a daily nightmare getting goods across the border. Here’s one example of just why. Toby Ovens of Broughton Transport told us about the 26 stamps he needs on loads of forms. To move one trailer across the Channel…
- Reposted by Alan WagerI am certain Alex Wikham, Steven Swinford, at al, who love to report HOURLY on gilt rates whenever they nudge up, explaining how it reduces headroom, are ALL OVER this good news. <has a look> Oh.
- Reposted by Alan WagerLikewise, people are more likely to say their area has been 'left behind' by government the more deprived an area is. There is a material base to feelings of place-based resentment.
- Reposted by Alan WagerNadhim Zahawi MP: In Farage’s Britain, it would be legal to discriminate against me on the grounds of race conservativehome.com/2015/03/23/n...
- Reposted by Alan WagerSeven Select Committee Chairs have written jointly to the Prime Minister calling for an explicit ban on cryptocurrency donations in the forthcoming Elections Bill. This is not an argument about digital assets. It is an argument about democratic integrity.
- Reposted by Alan WagerLittle noticed point - but an important one. 👏 @morganj0nes.bsky.social
- Reposted by Alan WagerGraham's all about 'protecting women'
- Reposted by Alan WagerIf you are a member of @labour4europe.bsky.social you have until 14th January to vote in the election for national chair. In last two years we have achieved so much - and in the next it is crucial we do even more to repair our relationship with Europe so broken by Brexit. I ask for your support.
- Reposted by Alan WagerAbsolutely magisterial interview with John Bew by @samfr.bsky.social and @ldfreedman.bsky.social. In a highly competitive field the most interesting thing I've read on Comment is Freed, on everything from the style of four administrations to our foreign policy challenges:
- Reposted by Alan WagerThe renaissance in local news is an exciting trend driven by online platforms. And one of the largest of these, @millmedia.bsky.social, was founded by @joshih.bsky.social in Manchester in 2020. It has now expanded to over 200,000 people subscribed across its 6 cities; over 13,000 of these pay. 1/6
- Reposted by Alan WagerCome join our team at FGF: * Communications Coordinator - who will devise & deliver communication campaigns to raise FGF's profile, reputation and reach * Researcher - who will conduct research & analysis in support of FGF projects and workstreams www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/vacancies/
- Reposted by Alan Wager“why are you still on twitter” -> whiny, makes you sound like a scold “oh you post on the pedophile app” -> makes them sound like a pedophile
- As ever, worth reading Joël ‘reality over rhetoric’ Reland.
- My assessment of Starmer's latest EU gambit. His rhetoric on "alignment" may be getting bolder but the trade-offs remain the same. The UK will not get much closer alignment with the single market unless it accepts free movement + budget contributions. ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
- Reposted by Alan WagerFun fact: Lab and Con now make up the top two in only 2% of council by-election results.
- Reposted by Alan WagerCornwall Insight expects Autumn Budget measures to deliver pretty substantial reduction in energy bills from April. www.businessgreen.com/news/4523722...
- Reposted by Alan WagerI've had two outstanding public service experiences this hols: a new passport within 2 days of application & a prescription ready to pick up within 2 hours of request. Time saved is a key (unmeasured) productivity metric: digital tech makes a huge difference when implemented well.
- Reposted by Alan WagerThree-hour airport queues for UK passengers as post-Brexit checks ramp up Airport operators warn of 'chaos' from next week when more checks are rolled out, with the risk of 'serious safety hazards' inews.co.uk/news/uk-pass...
- Reposted by Alan WagerThe government's keenness to protect "good jobs" in manufacturing contrasts with its inaction in the face of the destruction of "good jobs" in universities. What's going on here is something other than economics.
