Joop Adema
Post-doc @ University of Innsbruck -- jopieadema.github.io
- Reposted by Joop AdemaWe've got ISSUES. Literally. We scraped >100k special issues & over 1 million articles to bring you a PISS-poor paper. We quantify just how many excess papers are published by guest editors abusing special issues to boost their CVs. How bad is it & what can we do? arxiv.org/abs/2601.07563 A 🧵 1/n
- Reposted by Joop AdemaThis smells distinctly like collider bias and/or selection bias and/or regression to the mean... You simply can't select teen prodigies, and world class athletes rom databases, and go run regressions without serious consideration of the selection process!
- "Most top achievers (Nobel laureates and world-class musicians, athletes, chess players) demonstrated lower performance than many peers during their early years. Across the highest adult performance, peak performance is negatively correlated with early performance" www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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- Wat voor invloed heeft de spreidingswet gehad op de stemmen voor uiterst-rechts? In mijn artikel laat ik zien dat gemeenten die een AZC moeten openen aanzienlijk meer op PVV/FVD/JA21 hebben gestemd: @lamyae.bsky.social @ninazeelen.bsky.social @guusvalk.bsky.social @chrisaalberts.bsky.social
- Ook interessant voor NL sociaalwetenschappers: @saskiabonjour.bsky.social @leol.bsky.social @tomlouwerse.nl @leoniedejonge.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social @simonotjes.bsky.social @tamardewaal.bsky.social @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social @jvanslageren.bsky.social
- 🧵 Prior work studied the effect of (refugee) migration on far-right voting, but local inflows can only explain a sliver of the increase in FR voting around refugee waves. In my new WP, find that increased EXPECTATIONS about future migration causally increased FR voting in the Netherlands!
- After capacity problems in asylum seeker centers (AZCs) in NL, the gvt. proposed the Dispersal Act, which obliged municipalities to host AZCs. When the Act passed parliament Oct '23, voters in the 65% of municipalities who weren't hosting yet expected to have to host asylum seekers soon.
- The literature on group threat in soc. psych. poses that minority group size increases perceived threat and more hostile attitudes by the majority. Expectations about future inflows could matter; scope for perceived threat is large when the out-group is faceless and no contact is possible.
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- Reposted by Joop Adema📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?” Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return. Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u... Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC
- Reposted by Joop Adema📣New Working Paper “What Drives Refugees' Return After Conflict?” ✒️ @jopieboy.bsky.social @lchargaziia.bsky.social Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker & Panu Poutvaara Insights into how conflict resolution, security, economics, and corruption influence return decisions. 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...
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- (1/10) New paper at PNAS: what predicts Ukrainian refugees’ destination choice? We experimentally study the drivers of location choice in a conjoint design: we find that job opportunities, wages and networks are most important, much more so than welfare benefits.
- (2/10) Studying the drivers of refugee movements is often hard to study observationally: (1) country traits are often correlated and (2) mobility is often restricted. Ukrainians are different w.r.t (2): they could freely choose which EU+ country to apply for protection + direct labor market access.
- (3/10) We fielded surveys among >3000 Ukrainian refugees in late 2023; Survey I recruited respondents over Facebook across Europe and Survey II targeted a representative sample of refugees in DE. We run a conjoint experiment where refugees to choose between two hypothetical countries.
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View full thread(11/10) PPL who’d be interested: @plvezina.bsky.social @rlandersoe.bsky.social @mclem.org @ffasani.bsky.social @tomfratti.bsky.social @andreassteinmayr.net
- Reposted by Joop AdemaI am often told that public critique of published articles must also solve the issues found. I think this frequently enforced requirement hinders scientific self-correction. Blog post: mmmdata.io/posts/2025/0...
- Update #2, RETRACTED: 15 months after we (w @ollefolke.bsky.social and @johannarickne.bsky.social ) submitted the initial comment to the Journal, we've noticed the paper was ultimately retracted. Retraction note here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
- Although we believe this is the right conclusion, the note does not mention our comment or why the original results were "incorrect and not supported by the data".
- Reposted by Joop Adema📣 Submit your paper to the Leibniz Open Science Day! I will be there to talk about our recent experience with replicating Ciacci (2024) about impacts of the Swedish legislation that banned sex purchases. Call for papers: www.zbw.eu/de/ueber-uns...
- Reposted by Joop AdemaA warm welcome to @jopieboy.bsky.social ! 🌟 Thrilled to have him in the network! He researches labor economics and political economy of international migration.📊 🔍 His research: jopieadema.github.io 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/ne...
- Reposted by Joop Adema📣Call for papers: 𝗖𝗘𝗠𝗜𝗥 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 28 - 29 October 2025, Munich Keynote Speaker: Jens Hainmueller (Stanford) ℹ️ www.ifo.de/en/event/202... 👉 Submit by 30 June: app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/78037... @sebastianschirner.bsky.social @econmunich.bsky.social
- 🧵Replication: Can refugee flows be lowered by reducing welfare? Agersnap et al. (2020, AER:I) study this in Denmark, reporting lower benefits strongly reduce migration flows. I reanalyze this paper, finding a much more nuanced result.
- Denmark strongly reduced benefits for non-EU migrants in 2002, bringing benefits back up in 2012 and re-introducing low benefits in 2015 again. AJK study this by (1) comparing non-EU migration to EU-15 migration to Denmark and (2) non-EU migration to Denmark to that to other Nordic countries.
- Reading their paper, I detected three consequential issues. I reanalyse the setting and test an additional prediction of the welfare magnet hypothesis. I hope that my concerns below improve future studies of the impact of policies on migration flows.
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View full threadMy comment+code can be found here: jopieadema.github.io/replication/. It was desk rejected by AER:I on the grounds of not "meeting the high bar needed to justify publishing a comment" while acknowledging it's a "significant nuance to our understanding". I leave judgement to the reader.
- Reposted by Joop Adema📣 Join us for the annual Richard Löwenthal Lecture on "Return and Return Intentions of Ukrainian Refugees" by Prof. Panu Poutvaara. 🇺🇦 📅 11.06.2025, 4 PM 📍 Hörsaal A, OEI, Garystr. 55, 14195 Berlin 🔗 tinyurl.com/LOE25 @freieuniversitaet.bsky.social
