- My colleagues Calvin Farris (NPS) and Ellis Margolis (USGS) led a landmark study in paleofire reconstruction. In addition to showing that fire management can restore past fire regimes, the demonstrated methods are a first in dendrochronology. 1/6 esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...Feb 5, 2026 21:17
- Spatial networks of fire scarred trees and twentieth-century burned area observations in the form of mapped fire perimeters (fire atlases) were used to calibrate and validate reconstructions of area burned in absolute values, that is hectares burned per year, extending back to the early 1700s. 2/6
- This is a new and important advance in dendrochronology, because, to my knowledge, this is the first time a spatial ecological process has been reconstructed using tree-ring event networks at these scales, resolutions, and with very high levels of statistical accuracy (r-squared = 0.88 to 0.98). 3/6
- All models performed very well, demonstrating that even relatively low spatial density fire scar networks can be used to quantitatively and accurately estimate area burned over time. Prescribed fire programs in these two wilderness areas have effectively restored the pre-1900 fire regimes. 4/6
- This work demonstrates the potential to quantify past areas burned at regional to continental scales. This opens the door for quantifying long term and fine to broad-scale fire effects on forests and carbon dynamics. 5/6 Open access link, again: esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
- Last, this study demonstrates (again) that fire scar networks in Southwestern ponderosa pine dominant fire regimes can provide highly reliable and accurate estimates of fire extent and related fire regime metrics (e.g., fire frequency, fire rotation, etc.). 6/6