🟢 Scenario 1️⃣ – “𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝗿”: The escalation of a #tariff war between the EU and US would be mutually harmful. EU exports to the US would be slashed by half, with disproportionate impacts on Member States such as Ireland, Slovakia and Belgium. US GDP would also contract over the long term.