Sarah Binder
Political scientist by day (and night). GWU and Brookings. Co-editor, goodauthority.org
sarahbinder.weebly.com
- No shortage of carbs for this ❄️🌨️ 😂
- Reposted by Sarah BinderThe Federal Reserve is still playing defense. Here are four takeaways from the latest bouts between Trump and the Federal Reserve. Read the latest from @sarahbinder.bsky.social & Mark Spindel: goodauthority.org/news/the-fed...
- The Fed might seem on a roll. Today it drew support from SCOTUS; last week, from markets & key GOP senators. But the Fed is not out of the woods. New @goodauth.bsky.social post w/ Mark Spindel on why Fed remains on defense & vulnerable to POTUS efforts to steer it. goodauthority.org/news/the-fed...
- New post for @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 ideas" on the challenges of president-proofing legislative agencies-- especially GAO. Time is running out for Congress to consider ways to protect its non-partisan watchdog from a vortex of presidential power. democracyproject.org/posts/insula...
- Powell goes full Schattschneider 🤓! Expand the scope of conflict, get audience off the sidelines & into the game. Gambit to rally political support for Fed & put Trump on defensive. Reminder that Fed depends on political support (from lawmakers, markets, judges, POTUS) to secure its “independence”
- Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG... www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
- Where's Congress on Venezuela? New Brookings post: Don't count on Congress but don't count it out either. Bipartisan Sen. WPR discharge vote today is case in point: WH failed to keep GOP in line. POTUS use of force is not a cakewalk for POTUS or slim GOP majorities. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
- Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority).
- Over 30% of petitions filed in 2025 have hit magic 218. True, lawmakers file fewer petitions today than @ height of bipartisan conservative coalition (1930s/40s). But remarkable hit rate today reflects Speaker overreach, stifling a pivotal majority faction in era of slim at-risk fragile majorities.
- Rare House discharge success today. Reminder that the rule was born of legislators' frustration with an overbearing and overreaching Speaker (Czar) Joe Cannon in 1910. Granted, Speakers Cannon & Johnson had different reasons to batten down the floor agenda. But overreach can sometimes prove costly!
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- Family of four 🤗
- Now this is a great speech for a POTUS to deliver when he visits the Federal Reserve (in 1937). Watch FDR live! (starts at .22) sarahbinder.weebly.com/uploads/3/1/... Or read the whole speech here 🤓 www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/ad...
- What to expect while you're expecting (Massie's discharge petition ...)
- Massie introduced rule on July15 to discharge unrelated bill. Rule has to be pending in Rules panel for 7 *legislative* days before he can file discharge petition. So it'll be Sept before he can file petition. At that point, any MC can sign it at Clerk's desk. www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...
- Senate GOP tactics to make 2017 tax cuts "permanent" required nuclear move on Senate floor-- weakening authority of the parliamentarian, blowing hole in Byrd Rule, & possibly making future debt crisis more likely. New @goodauth.bsky.social post on fallout from OBBB goodauthority.org/news/three-b...
- I think these institutional consequences deserve far more attention than they've received-- especially with respect to the reputation and relevance of the Senate's neutral expert parliamentarian going forward. This issue matters regardless of one's views about reforming the filibuster!
- No kings 🤣
- Reminder on Byrd process: Parliamentarian has identified OBBB text that violates Byrd rule. Her advice doesn’t block text. She’s saying: If GOP still keep Byrd-offending text in OBBB & send it to floor, a senator can cry fowl (😉). Supporters would then need 60 votes to keep each proposal in bill.
- And yes, this assumes GOP majority continues to follow past practice in how Senate handles points of order under budget law /reconciliation. That process protects the “3/5th discipline” senators baked into Byrd rule to place some limitations on what majorities can stuff into reconciliation.
- Senate parliamentarian never sleeps! More Byrd droppings! These Ag panel droppings will get most 👀: Mandating ⬆️ state $$ contributions to fund SNAP & banning undocumented from food benefits These Byrd calls very slightly shift OBBB to center. Likely angers hawks, but might help Thune. Full list ⬇️
- 'Tis the (Byrd bath) season!
- Byrd droppings piling up from S Banking text. GOP-sought savings from Fed/CFPB are good reminder of Fed's *structural* independence. Guessing Byrd rule blocks zero'ing out of CFPB & Fed staff salary cuts, since Fed is self-funded & not reliant on Congress for appropriations.
- Why did Trump send such a narrow and small rescission request to Congress? New @Brookings.edu FixGov post on the politics and rules of rescinding appropriations spending under federal budget law— and what’s at stake. www.brookings.edu/articles/tru...
- Time flies 🥲
- House GOP pay-fors more draconian for tax cuts this year compared to 2017 TCJA. Primary 2017 revenue raiser was🧂🧢 (after "border tax" killed). This time, slimmer GOP seeks more costly tax cuts & more politically salient revenue raisers (Medicaid/SNAP/ACA/Pell✂️). Pulls bill much farther to the right.
- Suggests speed bumps ahead in Senate (assuming swing district GOP walk the plank to ensure House passage, which seems historically reasonable bet). Recalling unpopularity of 2017 tax cuts, this year’s version (even if ✂️✂️ pared back in Senate) seems eventually ripe 🎯 for Dems come 2026 midterms.
- Congress was hiding in plain sight 🤓. Join me & @johnsides.bsky.social for Episode 2 of @goodauth.bsky.social's Where's Congress? We consider the big (yes), beautiful (eye of beholder) bill House GOP are trying to pass thru House --Senate GOP views be damned (for now) www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvfR...
- Would Democrats take advantage of GOP-proposed tax-free "MAGA savings accounts" for their kids? Would be a good test of "partisanship is a powerful drug." Pre-register your survey experiment(s) now 🤓
- Re-appointed [Faculty] Senate parliamentarian. Unanimous consent, no objections 🤣 🤞🏻🤞🏻I don’t get ignored or fired 😳
- House GOP struggles to identify politically-palatable cuts to Medicaid shouldn't surprise (esp given slim majority). Figure shows % district enrolled in M'caid/CHIP vs Trump vote (2024). Significant cuts would hit across red states, esp in those that expanded M'caid (comprising 60% of House GOP).
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- House & Senate GOP likely view big cuts to Medicaid differently--especially S GOP from states that expanded Medicaid post ACA. Graph shows % of Medicaid recipients enrolled via expansion (Q3 2024 data). You can see impact on red states, especially (but not limited to) red states above trend line.
- Truer words never spoken (even if not limited to the House...)
- Pretty remarkable (not surprising) that recap of Trump's 1st 100 days mentions Congress just 3 times: Judge says Congress has power of 👛, Trump tells Congress he will shutdown USAID, & 2 House Dems introduce a bill to require weekly DOGE reports to Congress www.axios.com/visuals/trum...
