Kevin Cunningham
Lecturer in Politics | Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society | Fmr Targeting & Analysis @uklabour | @OULightweights | Chair MA Journalism @wearetudublin |
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamInteresting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research
- I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamReally important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
- I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
- I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamReasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social
- Trying something open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
- Connolly 55 Humphreys 35 Gavin 10 m.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
- Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamIt is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63. Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan. May he rest in peace.
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamNot all analysis!
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamNew piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.
- Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamNearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com
- Reposted by Kevin Cunningham[This post could not be retrieved]
- Yup.
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamWhat a sad sight
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamTurns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamOne of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.
- Reposted by Kevin Cunninghamalways a NO to gen AI
- Reposted by Kevin Cunningham[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamHi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908
- My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
- Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover.
- I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.
- Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamIn case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
- Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...
- It's officially 'very cold'
- Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamFor your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamEverything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵)
- In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.
- Instead compare the change in the number of votes (up 0.7%) to the change in newly eligible voters since Feb 2020 (up ~5%) Newly eligible (IE/UK) 18+ in the 4.8 years (A notably large Celtic Tiger cohort) + New adult citizens + Net migration of Irish/British adults - IE/UK adult deaths here
- Comparing these numbers we're still looking at about a decrease in turnout of around 3-4% since the last election. This wouldn't be enough to distort an exit poll unless there was also a big change in the distribution of voters shifting from young to old.
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View full threadIn the above chart youll see how many of those under 65 are getting to the polls after work. On a Saturday there isn't quite the same squeeze.
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamFine Gaelers really feel the Paschal Donohoe push over the last few days was effective - this might back that up.
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamGreat analysis by @kevcunningham.bsky.social I’d no realised there was also a Sindo/Ireland Thinks exit poll www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties
- Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.
- These voters opted for FF/FG.
- The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote.
- Changes in vote shares and changes in seat shares:
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamThe polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamExpecting these odds for ff/fg/Independents to start moving in quite quickly? #ge24
- Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..?
- There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination.
- (to go)
- My article in @TheSundayIndo attempting an explanation of yesterday's vote together with some fresh data. m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamRTÉ Election Marathon Fantastic teamwork with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day! 🙌 #GE24
- Great work with Stefan working on our votes to seats model taking into account the individual's vote share/quota, their ranking relative to seats, number and vote share of running mates. Transfer friendliness of FF FG may change this further. We'll have to see!
- Initial comparison: first-preference vote shares (based on almost all tallies), Exit Poll (yellow dots) and Irish Polling Indicator estimates. Note: Subject to change! Source: work with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day #GE24
- Reposted by Kevin Cunningham@businesspost poll 27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov) Fianna Fáil 21% (=) Fine Gael 20% (-2%) Sinn Fein 20% (+2%) Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%) Soc Dems 6% (=) Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%) Green 4% (=) Labour 4% (+1%) Aontú 4% (-1%) PBP-Solidarity 2% (=) Others 1% (=) Moe +\- 3% FW 20th-26th
- Reposted by Kevin CunninghamOur final general election Business Post/Red C poll. Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes government- www.businesspost.ie/politics/red...
- 'I mean they've had their ups and downs, but when all is said and done they're destined to be together.'
- Prime Time Debate poll conducted today... m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...
- Micheál Martin 38 Mary Lou MacDonald 36 Simon Harris 15 Not sure 10 (Excluding those that said they did not watch the debate)
