John Pollock
Communications for Chatham House (@chathamhouse.org) | Writer @theworldtoday.org | Think tanks and higher education | Posts on international affairs/security | China | Views my own.
- Reposted by John PollockIran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
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- The simple fact is that if Joe Biden had delivered a speech at Davos as rambling and as disjointed as what we saw Trump deliver there would have been uproar in the US and calls to remove him from office. Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.
- The strong ‘abusive husband’ energy emanating from the United States towards Europe is both depressing and also unsurprising. And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.
- From @theguardian.com
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- 1.2 million Russian casualties in Ukraine overall.
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- Reposted by John Pollock"The protests speak to the continued legitimacy crisis that the Islamic Republic faces. The economic dynamics in the country are devastating." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.
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- If this is confirmed, then the capture of Nicolás Maduro is the most significant operation conducted by US special forces since the raid that killed Bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011.
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- My head says the regime in Iran will find a way to survive these protests, my heart hopes that this time it will finally be the end of the Islamic Republic.
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- The invasion of Iraq ensured that North Korea would never give up its nuclear arsenal. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US undermining and abandoning its allies will convince South Korea and Japan that they need a nuclear backstop. Northeast Asia will become a tinderbox.
- Anyone who knows anything about Polish history and Russia’s incredibly violent contribution to it knows that this is a stupid thing to write. It takes some temerity to tell the Poles to not worry about their neighbours intentions. Then again he’s been doing exactly the same thing with Israelis.
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- Fair to say that going from quotes like this, the US National Security Strategy comes far more from JD Vance’s worldview than Elbridge Colby’s ‘prioritise China’ outlook. It’s bad for Europe, bad for the transatlantic relationship and above all bad for America’s position in the world.
- The new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
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- My latest for @chathamhouse.org’s international affairs magazine. Using previously unseen Maxar satellite images we document Israel’s air campaign against the Houthis. The TLDR is that Israel won’t tolerate Iran building up the Houthis into a Hezbollah-like force.
- Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel will not tolerate Iran sending weapons to Yemen and turning the Houthis into the next Hezbollah. I and my co-author write for @theworldtoday.org documenting Israel's air campaign against the Houthis in the Red Sea with Maxar images📸 and what may come next.
- China purges nine top commanders in People’s Liberation Army
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- At this point any US military aid or support for Europe and Ukraine should be viewed as a bonus under this president. Trump doesn’t care about Europe and Europe should act and arm accordingly.
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- The consistency with which Donald Trump makes excuses for Vladimir Putin is truly beyond alarming at this point. The Russians have very likely concluded that their next act of aggression towards Europe will receive no meaningful US response…. and they would be right.
- Enough is enough. After the drone incursion into Poland deterrence needs to be re-established with the Russians. The next time a flight of Russian jets enter NATO airspace, fire control radars should be locked onto them.
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- You love to see it and a packed edition too as we head into the Autumn 🍂. Give @lycidas.bsky.social and the mighty @theworldtoday.org team a follow👇
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- "Eight decades after the Second World War ended, China no longer views itself as a mere participant in history but as the architect of a new world order." A fascinating read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Yu Jie on the key signals China is sending via the SCO summit and 'Victory Day' parade.
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- A fascinating read by @chathamhouse.org’s Middle East team on the dynamics at play in Lebanon following the war in September-October last year and what it means for Israel, Hezbollah, the US and Lebanon. ⬇️
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- "Although Israel and the United States did considerable damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran may be able to produce the fissile material required for about ten nuclear weapons within half a year." Stark analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
- A fascinating new report by @galipdalay.bsky.social and Natalie Sabanadze for @chathamhouse.org. It covers the ambitions of Russia in the Black Sea region, 🇷🇺🇹🇷 ties, the invasion of Ukraine and China's regional interests also. A brilliant read on one of the world's most contested maritime domains⤵️
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- An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleagues on how the UK should approach the Indo-Pacific region.
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- Reposted by John PollockFind it shocking that the story about the Afghan files is being turned into a story about immigration on R4 by Rajan and Healy. This is about public scrutiny, government decision-making, doing right by those who've supported the British armed forces and British operations overseas. Not immigration.
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- The Entente Cordiale has never looked better and neither has the Mall. Truly stunning weather in London today for Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK 🇫🇷🇬🇧.
- “China’s economy has been growing at roughly the same pace as the world economy since 2020, meaning that China’s share of global GDP – the best measure of relative national power – is now flatlining. By this indicator, China is no longer a rising country.”
- A really interesting podcast with @gideonrachman.bsky.social and @valinasr.bsky.social on the Iran-Israel war. The key takeaway: Israel has not fully destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. We don’t know enough (yet) about the damage at Natanz, Esfahan and Fordow.
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- Higher education in the UK is in a truly parlous state. At a minimum the University of Nottingham (my old employer) is expecting around 400 redundancies. Former colleagues are worried or voting with their feet and leaving. The same concerns from colleagues at London based universities too.
- Post-strike images of the Fordow fuel enrichment facility in Iran from Maxar dated 22 June. Large craters caused by the US strikes can be seen on the ridge above the underground complex. A layer of grey-blue ash covers the area around the site.
- Brand new imagery from Maxar featuring high-res satellite images show damage to Iran’s heavy water reactor complex in Arak following Israeli strikes. Comparison of images dated 18 and 19 June confirm the Arak reactor has sustained heavy damage.
- Oh boy.
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- A thread by my colleague and friend @armida.bsky.social on the political crisis in the Netherlands.
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- For the UK’s friends in Europe, the language used by the British right about Europe is rightfully dismaying. But they don’t speak for all of us. Their project failed. The polling is clear. Voters want a closer relationship with the EU. Brexit is over and the fight for what comes after has started.
- 🌳☀️🍃 📍 Hampstead Heath
- Reporting by @sangernyt.bsky.social and others in the @nytimes.com reveals what drove the Trump administration to push for a ceasefire: India striking Pakistani air bases. Strikes that could have been interpreted by Pakistan’s military as climbing the nuclear escalation ladder.
- Full story here:
- An excellent @chathamhouse.org podcast this week on the current crisis between India and Pakistan 🇮🇳 🇵🇰.
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- My Chatham House colleague @chietigj.bsky.social on India’s military action against Pakistan and the risk of escalation in South Asia.
- Reuters is reporting intense shelling is now underway between India and Pakistan in Kashmir.
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- India has launched air strikes against Pakistan.
- "The wave of dismissals may mean that Xi cannot fully trust what his military advisers tell him about China’s readiness for war. General He Weidong’s case, in particular, raises doubts regarding Taiwan."
- "Although the civilian government in Islamabad has denied involvement, there is precedent for attacks on India taking place during periods when the Pakistani military feels it is being marginalized."
- The rhetoric from both India and Pakistan has skyrocketed today in response to the attacks in Kashmir. It’s not inevitable but it’s difficult to see how there isn’t an Indian military response now. In 2019, this saw India launching air strikes against groups inside Pakistan.
- I don’t want to alarm anyone, but the situation between India and Pakistan is deteriorating rapidly and it seems by the hour.
- "The West – in particular, the US, which has tended to see India as a bulwark against China – needs to understand the limits and nature of China–India ties in order to develop realistic expectations of what New Delhi can deliver in the context of Washington’s strategic competition with Beijing."
- A fascinating podcast with my @chathamhouse.org colleague Sanam Vakil and @gideonrachman.bsky.social on Iran’s nuclear programme, what Iranian intentions might be (read sanctions relief) and the risks of Israeli military action should negotiations fail. Well worth your time ⬇️.
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