Armida van Rij
Senior Research Fellow @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Ex-Chatham House & King's College London. European security, defence & politics.
🔗 cer.eu/personnel/armida-va…
- Great to be back on BBC New The Context last night, to unpack the informal EU Council and Greenland.
- Welcome @james-r-green.bsky.social! Do follow my new CER colleague for all things tech policy.
- Reposted by Armida van RijAs I've written before, people don’t trust institutions because institutions aren't doing the job. Democracy rests on three pillars: Verification, Deliberation, Accountability, which can be understood as being substantial, performative, and simulated. demos.co.uk/research/ver...
- Reposted by Armida van RijWe’ve spent years trying to fact-check our way out of this, and it failed. Democratic decay isn’t about bad information versus good information, it’s about the collapse of the systems that turn information into reality. If every bot and Russian troll vanished tomorrow, the rot would still be there.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...
- Democratic politicians have, though, pursued growth in GDP at the expense of other values. One response to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com pessimistic scenario is refocus on those values, combined with egalitarianism, sufficiency and quality of life. Not "it's the economy, stupid" but "it's the the society"
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Ondanks het onderwerp, toch bijzonder om dit interview aan @nrc.nl te mogen geven. We hebben het over de toekomst van de NAVO, de rol van Europa op het wereldtoneel, en waarom meegaan met de gedachtegang van Trump Europa verder ondermijnt. Dank @arnolddegroot.bsky.social. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Trump coming for the North Sea next: "The UK sits on the North Sea, sits on all that oil, and they don't do anything with it. They don't allow the oil companies to drill."
- A strong episode overall thanks to @rynning.bsky.social's analysis, but this final part on minilateralism is especially important. The new energy put towards these formats show something is broken within NATO. They are not used to reinforce the alliance, but to push pol agendas through other means.
- The past few days have underlined why it's problematic to go along with Trump's rationale - it assumes a basis of reason which is not there. My comments to the Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- OR... does it in the medium-term just create a divide *within* Europe between those European NATO allies wanting to keep the US on board (the North/East), and those whose electorates see straight through that and are fed up with placating Trump (South)?
- The tripwire force is finally here... But instead of being in Ukraine to deter Russia, it is within NATO territory to deter one NATO ally from violating another NATO ally's sovereignty. The world turned upside down.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- High stakes for Greenland and Denmark today, as Frederiksen & Nielsen meet Vance & Rubio. Super interesting conversation with @rynning.bsky.social about NATO's possible policy shifts to appease Trump's Arctic security concerns, and how minilaterals fill NATO's void. open.spotify.com/episode/24OZ...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Superb line of questioning by @terischultz.bsky.social of the NATO Sec Gen - Rutte's refusal to publicly support Greenland or Denmark is so problematic for an SG who represents 32 allies, not just 1. I'd hope he is more robust in closed conversations with the US. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIIp...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Fijn dat de SG zich ook even meldt.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- A good collection with some top people. Not new ideas per se, but that just proves how the policy recommendation is just the start of the process, navigating the *politics* is much, much harder.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- The US is putting a new world order on the table, one based on autocracy, the use of force, and nativism. For the transatlantic relationship, the result has been fusing threats to sovereignty with the promotion of far-right forces that are a threat to democracy, and pushing tech deregulation.
- As the norms and laws European democracies stand for – democracy, human rights, the rule of law – already strained after years of far-right influence, come under further pressure, Europe struggles to defend them.
- Europe's crippling security dependency on the US means Eur leaders self-censor out of fear of compromising their own or Ukraine’s security. As long as Europe is limited by the military capabilities it can deploy independently, this dependence will cloud any course of action or response to US policy.
- What Europe needs is to urgently deepen and strengthen partnerships with genuine allies, found in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and other remaining liberal democracies, who have an interest in maintaining a rules-based order and can help counter the US's alternative order.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies. My op-ed for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
- Reposted by Armida van RijNina Jankowicz: “They’re not doing this because they have any evidence of censorship — they lost a Supreme Court case that made those claims… They’re doing this because the group of researchers and advocates have stood up to liars like Donald Trump and the platforms that enable them.”
- “Chilling and unconstitutional” — @attorneynora.bsky.social @freepress.bsky.social
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Meanwhile, NL is reeling from Nile Gardiner (Heritage) telling the Dutch public broadcaster in an interview he 'wants to see the end of the EU' (following an article he wrote a few days ago). The Dutch are not strongly pro-EU, but they really dislike Trump - hoping for a rally around 🇪🇺 flag effect
- It's unfortunate how often I've had to pull this article out of the drawer recently, but I wrote about what happens when US tech interests converge with the administrations' ideologues earlier this year (and have a continuation of this piece which brings in the NSS out soon). icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
- It's not just Breton either, but also current directors of NGOs working on disinformation and to counter hate speech online in Europr. This will have a major chilling effect on European other NGOs and think tanks working in this space too. US admin showing the NSS means business.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- "For much of the past century, the US fought wars to spread an ideology. Today, the ideology it seeks to propagate is nativism. In pursuit of this ideology, it declared war on its own residents by setting in motion ICE raids on the streets of American cities." globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
- Europe is the frog that's being boiled. The cumulative effect of Russian sub-threshold warfare is an erosion of the public's trust in institutions, fraying social cohesion in Europe. The below is an excellent investigation/resource with all (publicly known) instances of interference in one place 👏
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- In this version of the National Defense Authorization Act, the administration can't reduce troop numbers in Europe to below 76,000 without going via Congress and allies first - ie stabilising numbers around the pre-2022 surge mark. Of course we're still waiting for the force posture review...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Unfortunately, that is what the NSS enables.
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250. I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
- Find the full series here, with excellent contributions from @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social Julie Smith, Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social @profpaulpoast.bsky.social and many others. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
- Help - how to turn off Microsoft copilot? It's impossible to do any writing in word without it popping up and offering to rewrite, refine, restructure and it's driving me crazy - pls just let me have my first bad draft that will never see the light of day 😤
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Good piece 👇
- Europe imagines it can win at Washington’s “neo-royalist” game. Trump sees Europe as an extension of his domestic retribution campaign. Both are wrong, and both underestimate Europe’s ability to fight back (if it finds the will). My thoughts for @agendapublica.es: agendapublica.es/noticia/2047...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Last year, I was interviewed for a @frontlinepbs.bsky.social documentary about Germany's far right, with a nod to Russia and the US. The documentary came out last month and makes for deeply uncomfortable viewing. www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
- The producers were able to get access to and interview key figures in the AfD, including Björn Höcke and Maximilian Krah. The documentary traces Russia's ties to the AfD, and takes the AfD's social media strategy under the loop - scary.
- I discuss how far right parties have become part of the political process in much of Europe, and how Russia is using FR politicians to weaken social cohesion and divide and destabilise Europe. And of course, the ideological convergence between MAGA and the European far right.
- It's not exactly a holiday film, but worth watching especially given the US National Security Strategy. www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontli...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- "The US believes that it is key to its national security to 'Make Europe great again', and that the European far right is the only political force that can achieve this."
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Armida van RijAnd a deeper dive into the ties between Silicon Valley libertarians, MAGA, US Big Tech and the European far right and what it means for European security, and how the EU should respond (hint: the answer is not to deregulate tech). icds.ee/en/trump_sil...
- Reposted by Armida van RijThe Nov 2024 piece which argues the alignment between MAGA and some members of the European far right threatens the European project www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/trum...
- Reposted by Armida van RijThe new US National Security Strategy makes for scary reading. I wrote about how the US wants to support forces in Europe to tear itself apart back in November 2024, and last May. This NSS confirms that's exactly the US objective for Europe. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
- Reposted by Armida van Rij[Not loaded yet]
