Norman J. Steinert
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertNew preprint in Earth System Dynamics: When will the northern high latitudes become a net carbon source? We evaluate using policy relevant SSP scenarios including overshoot, explicitly representing permafrost🌳❄️🔥🏔️ ➡️ doi.org/10.5194/egus... @njsteinert.bsky.social @mathisoncamilla.bsky.social
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertPreprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
- Reposted by Norman J. Steinert✨ New preprint out! ✨ Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere 🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
- Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot? --> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
- New paper out today with @benmsanderson.bsky.social, where we quantify the contriution of the permafrost carbon feedback to TCRE and ZEC under uncertainty. Check it out here: doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
- OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025 global-tipping-points.org Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52... Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertOur finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
- Reposted by Norman J. Steinertflat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertVery cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!
- NEW – ‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org w/ comment from @gergmunday.bsky.social Nico Wunderling @davidamckay.bsky.social David Lapola @chrisd-jones.bsky.social
- New paper out today! Irreversible hydrological changes on land after temperature overshoot affect land water availability for over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes. doi.org/10.1029/2024...
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertNew paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳 Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9
- New paper! Incorporating plant and soil data reveals hidden agricultural drought stress areas and shows that, despite increasing extremes, future agricultural drought stress may decrease in some regions thanks to increasing soil moisture. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
- Reposted by Norman J. SteinertOur new open access paper on the PRIME Earth System emulator for estimating regional impacts is out now: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/..., @njsteinert.bsky.social, @chrisd-jones .bsky.social, @cjsmith.be, @gergmunday.bsky.social, @dougmcneall.bsky.social
- New paper on “Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions” due to irreversibility of inundated areas, which could delay or hinder climate change mitigation efforts. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
