GPT
Posts about the San Francisco Giants. Substack: https://giantsprospects.substack.com
Email: giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com
- What was going on in the Giants bullpen in these years…
- Apologies for the post spam. When I get some time, I will figure out how to group similar transactions like these.
- I would guess that Boston penciled themselves in as coming out ahead on this trade even if they got zero value in the return. The way they see it, they won by getting off the Devers contract, anything else is a bonus.
- Luis Arraez had a double plate approach problem in 2025. 1. 11th highest in baseball in % of pitches taken in the heart of the zone 2. 24th in swinging at pitches in the “Chase” and “Waste” part of the zones 3. Highest % of first pitch called strikes (Min 2,000 pitches, 132 qualified batters)
- So, what do we think the Cardinals wanted from the Giants to top this?
- 10% better wRC+ translates to about ~0.7 more WAR over 600 PA, holding everything else equal. So for upgrades that Bader and Arraez bring, Giants are adding ~1.5 WAR. Value that at around 12-15M. So Giants are paying another 8-11M on top for lower volatility.
- How much better are Bader/Arraez than Gilbert/Jesus Rodriguez? ZiPS: Bader - 102 Arraez - 108 Gilbert - 93 Rodriguez - 101 About 10% offensive boost + less volatility. Is that worth 23M? Bader/Gilbert defensively aren’t that far apart. Hard to imagine Rodriguez being worse than Arraez at 2B.
- I would have guessed Brian Bannister was in the Giants org when Hicks signed, but he left to White Sox a few months earlier.
- If Arraez plays everyday at 2B, Giants are pretty much giving up all the positive value they’ve built with the Bader addition and hopeful bounce back from Ramos. If Ramos doesn’t bounce back (-11 to ~ -5 FRV), the defense is likely to be worse overall in 2026 than 2025.
- I’ve GitHub Actions, to run the workflow to pull transactions, set to 15 mins. But they aren’t really running every 15 mins. I’m guessing this is a bottleneck with GitHub. Not complaining, because it’s free. If anyone has an idea how to improve frequency, please DM.
- Not sure I get this. Villarroel is a small, contact heavy guy, without much of a position. Sub .300 OBP in High-A as a 20 year old. Teng isn’t super impressive or a lock for a role this year but he was in the mix for innings to open the season. Whatever I guess.
- Bot works!
- Bryce Eldridge has perhaps an outlier low projection with OOPSY (89 wRC+). The BAT has him at 104 wRC+, ZiPS at 100, Steamer at 99. (None are good enough to be starting at DH for a playoff contender)
- This becomes easier. Assuming Bader plays 500 PA worth in CF, Lee in RF. That’s nearly a win right there with improvements at both. Ramos bouncing back is another half. 1.5 win sandbag against negative outcomes elsewhere.
- Bader is fine. But paying for 90 wRC+ bat with good CF defense is not great for a contending org. Good teams look to upgrade that, Giants are shelling out in FA for it. Indictment of where the org is. The bottom could fall out on the bat, then you have an expensive defensive replacement.
- Not sure if it means anything, but Harrison Bader has struggled against LHP over the last two seasons, ~300 PA. A notable shift from his career.
- I think either Gonzalez for Abrams or Davidson+Level+Whisenhunt is a “fair” trade. I wouldn’t do the former and probably not the latter, but just how I believe prospects are valued. I wouldn’t do below trade even if Jacob Young was included.
- I peg Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+ Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper imo. www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...
- I peg Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+ Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper imo. www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...
- Bot is live, should be working based on some test runs. If this works, I’ll create two more bots. One for Giants minor league transactions and one for all minor league transactions across baseball.
- You can’t make multiple bsky accounts with the same email? Ugh.
- I want to learn how to make bots on Bluesky. Goal for today is to create a bot that posts Giants transactions. Lets see how far I get.
- BA ranks Eldridge, Gonzalez, Davidson, and Level in top 100. Not sure exactly how BA thinks about it, but to me it suggests BA would not trade Jhonny Level or Bo Davidson, or anyone in ~75-100 range, for Luis Hernandez. Not sure I agree. www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/202...
- This is pretty much a giveaway by Miami. I liked Martinez a bit when he signed, but his first pro year in the DSL was terrible enough that he might have been released. A bit hard to believe that $250K in intl bonus pool can be had for negligible cost this year.
- Here is my 2026 Giants international signing day review. Reports and video on Luis Hernández, Alexis Gallego, and Angelo Ugueto. Also has a brief look ahead for upcoming classes. open.substack.com/pub/giantspr...
- Happy International Signing Day! Depending on my day goes, I’ll have a substack post (link in bio) reviewing the class with the notes I’ve gathered and a bit of video.
