Peter Tillmann
Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University (JLU) Giessen | monetary policy, macroeconomics, text-as-data applications
sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
- How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- Great to see our short note in print
- Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland www.ft.com/content/236c...
- Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.
- Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.
- Er liefert dem MAGA Lager die Munition. Unverantwortlich. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/m...
- A normal day in the Oval Office (polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
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- Zum 150sten.
- New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
- Stanley Fischer was incredibly influential www.ft.com/content/0990...
- This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies." www.ft.com/content/b400...
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- -25bp #ECB
- Sentiment falling off a cliff:
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- Kultur und russische Propaganda: www.zeit.de/kultur/2025-...
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- "Many clients were looking to diversify away from the US dollar" www.ft.com/content/f8c7...
- Check out the @alphaville.ft.com central banking merch: www.redbubble.com/de/people/ft...
- It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
- Sehr interessant:
- Unser 1945 Archiv-Projekt gibt es ausnahmsweise auf Deutsch. Teilt es gerne. Es ist großartig. www.economist.com/interactive/...
- Reposted by Peter TillmannA group of European countries is devising a strategy to poach researchers in the United States in response to American government cuts in education and research. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
- The Fed talks about first and second derivatives: "the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings". Not easy to understand. #FOMC
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- @bundesbank.de Gibt es eine Möglichkeit, die Artikel aus dem Monatsbericht als .pdf zu sehen, ohne die Formatierung zu zerstören?
- Interesting column featuring our recent paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy"
- Thanks @t0nyyates.bsky.social for citing our paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" in the Financial Times
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- PhD, Finanzindustrie, Gouverneur von zwei Zentralbanken, jeweils in schweren Krisen, danach Premierminister: Mark Carney erinnert an Mario Draghi. www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
- Wumms ohne Wachstumswende www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
- Die 10jährigen deutschen Zinsen haben heute um etwa 20bp auf die gestrigen News reagiert. Zum Vergleich hier die Reaktionen der 10y Zinsen auf die News an EZB-Sitzungstagen seit 1999 (Daten von Altavilla et al, 2019), ebenfalls in bp
- "The most striking aspect to these steps, which amount to a charter for criminals, is that Trump is making little attempt to dress them up. This pig has no lipstick." www.ft.com/content/afe7...
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- Maurice Obstfeld: Tariffs are not going to solve America’s ills www.ft.com/content/ae84...
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- Reposted by Peter TillmannDear Volodymyr Zelenskyy, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.
- What is the economic effect of spending on the Bundeswehr? In a new note, we analyze the debates in the Bundestag since 1970. An increase in Bundeswehr-related fiscal sentiment causes an expansion of real economic activity. drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
- @chrisgiles.ft.com: "If Trump wanted to take control, its constitutional protections are far from secure" www.ft.com/content/28d0...
- "Deutschlands Sicherheit rechtfertigt höhere Staatsschulden" www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
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- Die ganze Stadt Frankfurt wird im neuen Bundestag nicht durch direkte gewählte Abgeordnete vertreten sein: www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...
- Ciao BSW: 4,972%. Danke Mannheim, Flensburg, Viersen, ...
- Noch 9 Wahlkreise ... #BSW
- Puh, die AfD in Hessen über dem Bundesschnitt www.faz.net/aktuell/rhei...
- This is very intriguing:
- @schularick.bsky.social is right: the bottleneck for Europe's military build-up is real industrial capacity, not financial resources pca.st/episode/5d20...
- Philip Lane makes a good point: in simple terms, the euro area specialized in capital goods, whose purchases could be postponed. This makes the EA particularly exposed to uncertainty.
