Adam Carlson
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
- Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points Buckle up.
- Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.
- A Marine veteran turned oyster farmer who is now a rising Democratic Senate candidate once called himself a “communist,” dismissed “all” police as bastards, and said rural White Americans “actually are” racist and stupid, according to deleted social media posts seen by CNN. cnn.it/47sXon6
- Reposted by Adam Carlson3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go! Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
- Reposted by Adam CarlsonNEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
- In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
- Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field. The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios. Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.
- But more impactful than movement in the polls is money. Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition
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View full threadLastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot. Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago. So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.
- Reposted by Adam CarlsonI’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
- Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided
- New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...
- Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50% It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are
- Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate. And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.
- I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
- Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on! Listen here: Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu... Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
- @joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
- If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
- If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
- Ayyy that’s my poll
- Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon. More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
- Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research! After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
- My goal with Zenith is to build something that’s constantly evolving with the world around us, steers clear of DC groupthink & is unafraid of ruffling some feathers If you’re interested working together or want to learn more about us, check us out: zenith-research.com
- So let's do things differently. Let's challenge some assumptions. Let's shake up some established norms. Let's following the data wherever it leads. Let's be transparent about our process and methodology. And let's have some fun while we're doing it!
- P.S. Keep your eyes peeled for some public releases, hopefully coming over the next few weeks.
- Reposted by Adam CarlsonSomeone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
- Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!
- Wild story in the WSJ. It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below. But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
- We really didn’t deserve Lina
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View full thread
- Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
- And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
- Outside of core partisans: Trump's strongest groups: Rural (+23) White Non-College (+20) Men (+11) Age 45-64 (+9) Non-College (+9) White (+8) Trump's weakest groups: Black (-32) College Grad+ (-19) White College+ (-15) Women (-11) Age 30-44 (-11) Independent (-9) Moderate (-8)
- Methodology for those interested:
- For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
- Here are the 9 polls with out-of-field dates in the last 10 days
- Oh ok
- I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
- Reposted by Adam CarlsonHey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
- Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there. Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
- I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️ www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
- They managed to get out with their cats and what they could carry, but the rest is ashes
- I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
- I mean what the fuck is this
