Dr Sari Arho Havrén
Geopolitics, China analyst. Geopolitical strategic foresight. China’s foreign policy. History,International Relations PhD. RUSI Associate Fellow. Opinions mine. 🇨🇳🇪🇺🇭🇰🇫🇮🇬🇧
- Interesting article on People’s Daily today about Xi Jinping’s attention to grassroots officers. “Chairman Xi is extremely concerned about the life of the officers and soldiers on board; …. 1/4
- …and urged all levels to do a good job in all aspects of guarantees, so that the broad masses of officers and soldiers can better dedicate themselves to military construction and war preparedness.” Quote source Manoj Kewalramani 2/4
- 1) Relating to the regent purges, Xi is seeking the support of the masses (not the first time). 2) Note: “war preparedness” –rumours about Gen Zhang Youxia either crossing with Xi’s plans on Taiwan or failing the combat readiness timeline, or both, may actually hold some truth. 3/4
- 3) Xi may have learned a thing or two from Russia’s war in Ukraine; bad morals, close to zero training, and a lack of respect for individual soldiers equal a bad army. 4/4
- Those who voted against Russia, Iran, Belarus, etc., are no surprise, but China, India, Indonesia, among many others, abstained. Seemingly a morally challenging decision indeed, whether a war aggressor should return children to their parents whom it has kidnapped as an action of war.
- When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.
- WSJ headline
- Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow #Tangram #ObservingChina
- Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.
- Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.
- Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday. 1/
- The meeting bw the EU Parliament’s 🇨🇳delegation and members of 🇨🇳NPC was the first in 7yrs, after Beijing’s decision earlier this year to lift sanctions on current and former MEPs. But rather than a diplomatic thaw, the meeting was tense and testy, marked by the 🇨🇳side challenging NATO’s legitimacy.2/
- MEP Marketka Gregorova: “It is unbelievable that the president of China officially states that he is neutral in the conflict and that the territorial integrity of states should be respected, but then representatives of his Parliament come here to repeat Russian propaganda.” 4/
- 5/5 Source www.euractiv.com/news/nato-sh...
- Reposted by Dr Sari Arho HavrénWe are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows! 🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....
- It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.
- During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.
- Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.
- Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal. Modi just congratulated Putin: “Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
- In August, Modi “reiterated India’s commitment to extend all possible support [for the earliest restoration of peace]” in Ukraine directly to Zelenskyy. And yet, as many times before, Modi calls Putin—a war criminal—his friend. 2/3
- Meanwhile, the EU views China as bad in helping Russia in its war efforts, but India as good in helping Russia, considering how desperate the EU is to close its trade deal w 🇮🇳 by the end of the year. And fwiw, 🇨🇳 should be held responsible for being the biggest enabler of Russia’s war machine. 3/3
- ⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
- If China isn’t a threat to national security then no country is 🤯 on.ft.com/3IxutVG Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
- This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/
- “We have dependencies that others weaponise, but others are also dependent on us,” Sabine Weyand, the EU’s top trade official, said in the European Parliament last week. 2/
- “How can we move from a reactive attitude to a proactive attitude, one where we are not just trying to protect ourselves against weaknesses, but where we are also leveraging our strength?” Superb reporting from @fbermingham.bsky.social once again 3/3 www.scmp.com/news/china/a...
- Reposted by Dr Sari Arho HavrénSo, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social. www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
- ⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.
- ”..likely to be more such White House deals for mining projects — specifically those that would produce metal needed by the defence sector, such as antimony. Those materials were likely to be more of a focus than battery metals such as lithium and nickel”🇺🇸 on.ft.com/3VSE7oU
- Based on national legislation in most countries, such tankers could be stopped and inspected. The European-wide inertia is staggering.
- Reposted by Dr Sari Arho HavrénOTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.
- ⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
- Blocked from the U.S. market, Chinese self-driving technology firms are accelerating their push into Europe, setting up headquarters, striking data deals, and road-testing - prompting alarm from local rivals over competition concerns.1/2
- That [self-driving tech] expansion is already underway. Reuters spoke to a dozen company executives who described how Chinese firms are using Europe as a beachhead for global expansion, mirroring the push with EVs. 2/2
- Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.
- In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out. There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation. It was and is all about HER.
- “Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/
- “A former senior U.S. official who knows Trump well said the U.S. president does not fully recognize that the U.S. and China have entered a new phase of all-out strategic competition for global leadership.” 2/
- 3/3 Source Where will the US draw its defense line in East Asia? asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/co...
- Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.
- NEW: ICE is planning to hire a team of nearly 30 people to surveil social media 24/7, build dossiers on people, and flag them for arrest and deportation. @dell.bsky.social has the scoop: www.wired.com/story/ice-so...
- On Friday, the Helsinki District Court ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction over cable damage caused by the Eagle S in the Baltic Sea. The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/
- The court interpreted that the Finnish Criminal Code cannot be applied to the case, as the alleged crimes occurred before the vessel entered Finnish territorial waters. 2/
- There was also not enough evidence that the cables had been cut intentionally, another reason that torpedoed the court’s ability to assess criminal liability. 3/
- Countries that use hybrid attacks and influence seek to exploit weaknesses and loopholes in their opponents’ systems and legislation. To avoid such incidents, NATO member states should bring their national legislation up to date. 4/4
- A cargo ship linked to a drone attack that disrupted air traffic in Denmark and is linked to a Russian mercenary/military company, RSB Group, arrived at the port of Hamina in Finland at night‼️11/13 of the crew are Russians. 1/3
- The RSB Group, which has links to the 🇷🇺 security service FSB, employs former 🇷🇺 special forces soldiers. The US has imposed sanctions on the company and its owners because of its FSB connections. RSB has been described as a Wagner-like mercenary company. (source Helsingin Sanomat). 2/3
- Seems like the NATO allies’ coordination could be improved and fast. Why isn’t Oslo Carrier 3 sanctioned by the EU? Why are so clearly Russia-linked vessels allowed port visits in the EU? 3/3
- This is not mere visioning. Western governments, pressured for funding public services, can save money by adopting these already widely used techniques. The rule of law currently protects individuals from those in power, but the rising far right is not known for rigorously defending civil rights.
- If the EU’s 19th sanction package against🇷🇺 is adopted as proposed, the measures wld represent one of the EU’s most aggressive rounds, driven by Trump’s demands that allies impose 50–100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian companies buying🇷🇺 oil. Let's break down what this means, esp for 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳: 1/
- ▪️The package incl a ban on imports of 🇷🇺 LNG by Jan 1, 27 and will expand export bans on chemicals, metals, salts, ores, w tighter controls on entities from 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳 ➡️ stricter export controls on 45 additional entities, explicitly incl companies fr 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳 that have facilitated sanctions evasion. 2/
- ▪️The package targets banks, crypto platforms, the shadow fleet transporting Russian oil ➡️ incl transaction bans on additional Russian banks operating in 3rd countries, prohibitions on cryptocurrency platforms used for evasion, and sanctions on 118 more vessels in 🇷🇺 shadow fleet (totaling +560). 3/
-
View full thread➡️ This means openly placing China as Russia’s ally in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine and hybrid attacks against European NATO allies. The measures also place India on the same axis. 5/5
- The Finnish Foreign Minister @elinavaltonen.bsky.social acknowledges the tragic facts: “Unfortunately, dealing with any imperialist power like Russia, diplomacy hardly helps.”
- Two theatre simulation preparedness exercises have not been in vain. The scenario of the PRC’s invasion of Taiwan, supported by Russian Indo-Pacific forces, and simultaneous Russian attacks on Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe, is not unthinkable. ⤵️ www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
