MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games.
Code can be found in GitHub (https://github.com/dgrifka/baseball_game_simulator).
Created by @derekgrifka.bsky.social
- Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard. dtw-str.streamlit.app
- 🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 11/01/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 5 - 4 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 36% - 54% Blue Jays (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays #LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo
- 🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/31/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 3 - 1 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 24% - 58% Blue Jays (Tie 18%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays #LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾️ Playoff Update (10/30) 1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/29/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 6 - 1 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 70% - 15% Dodgers (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers #LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾️ Playoff Update (10/29) 1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/28/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 6 - 2 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 40% - 46% Dodgers (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers #LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾️ Playoff Update (10/28) 1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/27/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 5 - 6 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 10% - 85% Dodgers (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers #LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾️ Playoff Update (10/27) 1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/25/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 5 - 1 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 57% - 28% Blue Jays (Tie 16%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays #LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/24/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/24/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 4 - 11 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 3% - 94% Blue Jays (Tie 3%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays #LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾️ Playoff Update (10/24) 1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/20/2025 Final Score: Mariners 3 - 4 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 28% - 59% Blue Jays (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays #TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/19/2025 Final Score: Mariners 2 - 6 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 10% - 82% Blue Jays (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays #TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾ Brewers @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/17/2025 Final Score: Brewers 1 - 5 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 1% - 98% Dodgers (Tie 1%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Dodgers #ThisIsMyCrew #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners 🏟️ 10/17/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 2 - 6 Mariners 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 18% - 72% Mariners (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners #LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp
- ⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/17) 1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/16/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners 🏟️ 10/16/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 8 - 2 Mariners 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 73% - 16% Mariners (Tie 11%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners #LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp
- ⚾ Brewers @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/16/2025 Final Score: Brewers 1 - 3 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 27% - 42% Dodgers (Tie 31%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Dodgers #ThisIsMyCrew #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/16) 1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners 🏟️ 10/15/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 13 - 4 Mariners 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 97% - 1% Mariners (Tie 2%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners #LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp
- ⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/15) 1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Dodgers @ Brewers 🏟️ 10/14/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 5 - 1 Brewers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 94% - 3% Brewers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #Brewers #LetsGoDodgers #ThisIsMyCrew
- ⚾ Dodgers @ Brewers 🏟️ 10/13/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 2 - 1 Brewers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 97% - 1% Brewers (Tie 2%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #Brewers #LetsGoDodgers #ThisIsMyCrew
- ⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/13/2025 Final Score: Mariners 10 - 3 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 83% - 10% Blue Jays (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays #TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays 🏟️ 10/12/2025 Final Score: Mariners 3 - 1 Blue Jays 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 62% - 24% Blue Jays (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays #TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo
- ⚾ Cubs @ Brewers 🏟️ 10/11/2025 Final Score: Cubs 1 - 3 Brewers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 4% - 92% Brewers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
- ⚾ Tigers @ Mariners 🏟️ 10/10/2025 Final Score: Tigers 2 - 3 Mariners 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 48% - 38% Mariners (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Tigers #Mariners #RepDetroit #TridentsUp
- ⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/10) 1) Division Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games 2) Team Strength Rankings #Postseason
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/09/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Brewers @ Cubs 🏟️ 10/09/2025 Final Score: Brewers 0 - 6 Cubs 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 3% - 93% Cubs (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
- ⚾ Phillies @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/09/2025 Final Score: Phillies 1 - 2 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Phillies 49% - 36% Dodgers (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #Phillies #Dodgers #RingTheBell #LetsGoDodgers
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/08/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Phillies @ Dodgers 🏟️ 10/08/2025 Final Score: Phillies 8 - 2 Dodgers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Phillies 83% - 10% Dodgers (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Phillies #Dodgers #RingTheBell #LetsGoDodgers
- 🚨 Blue Jays are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Blue Jays @ Yankees 🏟️ 10/08/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 5 - 2 Yankees 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 37% - 51% Yankees (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Yankees #LightsUpLetsGo #RepBX
- ⚾ Brewers @ Cubs 🏟️ 10/08/2025 Final Score: Brewers 3 - 4 Cubs 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 15% - 74% Cubs (Tie 11%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
- ⚾ Mariners @ Tigers 🏟️ 10/08/2025 Final Score: Mariners 3 - 9 Tigers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 4% - 91% Tigers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #Tigers #TridentsUp #RepDetroit
- Updated Division Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games (10/8) #Postseason
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/07/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Blue Jays @ Yankees 🏟️ 10/07/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 6 - 9 Yankees 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 9% - 83% Yankees (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Yankees #LightsUpLetsGo #RepBX
- ⚾ Mariners @ Tigers 🏟️ 10/07/2025 Final Score: Mariners 8 - 4 Tigers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Mariners 87% - 7% Tigers (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Mariners #Tigers #TridentsUp #RepDetroit
- Updated Division Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games (10/7) #Postseason
- ⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/06/2025 1️⃣ Most Expected Bases 2️⃣ Least Expected Bases 3️⃣ Luckiest Hits 4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs #MLB #Baseball #Statcast
- ⚾ Cubs @ Brewers 🏟️ 10/06/2025 Final Score: Cubs 3 - 7 Brewers 📊 Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 3% - 93% Brewers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
