Beverly Ochieng
Books | Sahel coup watcher | Wagner Group stalker | Senior Analyst, Francophone Africa, Control Risks | occasional typos, usual disclaimers | so-called "Western puppet"
Dakar/Nairobi/Bookshelf
- Islamic State claimed attacking Niger's main airport, its first complex incursion on a Sahel capital since establishing presence in 2015. Niger accused its neighbours and France, while thanking Russia for reinforcing its army's counter-attack. More from me here: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...
- Central African Republic held general elections amid elevated political stability and unrest risks. I spoke to DW about the presidential frontrunners and how Touadéra has overseen constitutional changes and peace deals with rebels to legitimise his third term bid www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TBC...
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- Côte d'Ivoire's 25 Oct presidential poll will test the legitimacy of its institutions and its credentials as an oasis of commercial stability. A few thoughts in @economist.com on how diminished competition tilts the outcome in favour of Ouattara's fourth term bid www.economist.com/middle-east-...
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- Mali has (finally) confirmed arrests in the army linked to a coup plot. Spoke to BBC about pronounced tensions in the military leadership that threaten Gen Goïta's hold on power as he embarks on an indefinite term, and the restrictive political and security environment www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p...
- Niger has nationalised its only industrial gold mine, a measure likely to take precedent when the military rulers perceive that commercial operators are not meeting contractual obligations or project timelines. More from me on @firstpost.bsky.social youtu.be/Zy29_ZyjFmk?...
- Cameroon opposition leader Kamto has rejected his exclusion from the 12 October presidential election, leaving incumbent Biya the clear frontrunner for an eighth term. Spoke to @cnbc.com Africa about election scenarios, Biya's health and political tensions www.cnbcafrica.com/media/775465...
- Ouattara's fourth term bid maintains broad political stability in Côte d'Ivoire while highlighting the RHDP's fragile succession plan, likely to be a priority as the October presidential election is his to lose. Spoke to @theafricareport.bsky.social on this www.theafricareport.com/389141/cote-...
- To no one's surprise, Alassane Ouattara will seek a fourth consecutive presidential term in Côte d'Ivoire with a diminished pool of opponents. In Cameroon, Central African Republic and Tanzania, weak oppositions are benefiting incumbents to retain power. Some thoughts here apnews.com/article/afri...
- French forces have left Senegal. But in select countries - and newer partners like Kenya, Nigeria - bilateral ventures will continue. Meanwhile, West African gov'ts will maintain strategic defence ties to build the resilience of their militaries in the face of militancy youtu.be/ZlYMzMUILUM?...
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- As Burkina Faso's Traoré visited Russia and told RT that the army has gained control against militants, JNIM fighters reportedly briefly seized control of several security posts, killed an unknown number of forces in a campaign aimed at intensifying territorial reach to undermine the military gov't.
- Press in Senegal as Jeune Afrique is accused of manipulating a Tumbuktu Institute report on Sahel's militant threat to the east, Gabon as Oligui ends Bongo's dynasty (while Togo's Gnassingbe extends 58 years of family rule), Mali after anti-junta demos, and Benin after its deadliest militant raid
- Mali's opposition parties plan to mobilise against a cabinet resolution to dissolve political parties and elevate Gen Goïta - in power since 2020 - to president for a five-year renewable term. I analyse risks for political stability, decision-making, regional alignments www.bbc.com/swahili/bbc_...
- Mali looking to dissolve political parties, ban elections calls and keep Gen Goïta for 5 more years; Niger petrol stations under surveillance as militants threaten Niamey and Russia to mediate the Algeria-AES spat; and Chad finalises a peace deal with the Miski self-defence group to access minerals.
- Benin's deadliest militant attack underscores the growing instability in the Sahel, confirms JNIM's intent to exert influence in the north and puts pressure on the gov't to be forthcoming and transparent about the insurgency. Some thoughts on @afpfr.bsky.social www.barrons.com/news/benin-t...
- Burkina Faso claims Côte d'Ivoire is behind the latest attempt to remove Traoré from power. Spoke to BBC Swahili about strained relations between the two countries and Traoré's popularity cast against military setbacks and a fragile political environment: www.bbc.com/swahili/bbc_...
- This would be the deadliest attack on Benin where JNIM says it plans to increase influence and presence. In Jan, it claimed to have killed more than 30 soldiers in Point Triple that borders Burkina Faso and Niger whose mistrust in Benin has limited joint counterinsurgency cooperation.
- The press in Gabon as Oligui moves from junta head to president, Mali where nationwide anti-Algeria demos morph into calls for Goïta to remain in power for 5 more years, while Russia "chooses silence" on the drone incident, and Burkina Faso on geopolitics at the Anatalya forum.
- Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema wins 90% of votes in Gabon's presidential election, according to provisional results from the interior ministry, a decisive victory that (symbolically) ends the Bongo family reign and military rule.
- For the first time in over five decades, the name "Bongo" will not be on the ballot in Gabon where elections to end military rule will be taking place on Saturday. Some thoughts from me on why Oligui is projected to have a decisive victory: www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/ga...
- Foreign ministers from the Alliance of Sahel States have been in Russia, which intends to remain a strategic partner in the coalition's quest for recognition and sovereignty. Niger's FM spoke to RT on this and the push to eventually stop using the CFA franc francais.rt.com/magazines/la...
- Multiparty democracy has been dismantled in Niger where military ruler Tchiani was sworn in as president for five years. Spoke to BBC about the dissolution of political parties and how ECOWAS is recalibrating irelations with the Sahel where military rule is entrenched mastodon.social/@beverly_och...
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- Angola wants to withdraw as mediator between DR Congo and Rwanda and parallel peace, diplomatic and military initiatives unravel under M23's advance. I spoke to Firstpost about the fragility of M23's announced withdrawal and regional tensions as many parties are involved. youtu.be/XWCTD6Y85DE?...
- For the first time since 2022, the leaders and Rwanda and DR Congo held face-to-face talks, mediated by the latest actor: Qatar. I spoke to Bloomberg TV about battlegroubd gains by M23 rebels and how each side is leveraging mineral concessions for political control www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
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- Niger withdraws from La Francophonie as it continues to reject any institutional form of what it perceives to be France's political, linguistic, military and economic influence.
- Prominent TVs off air as Senegal seeks compliance, Burkina Faso's PM highlights military progress amid alleged human rights abuses by soldiers and VDPs in Solenzo and the latest attacks in the north, while Benin-Niger tensions continue to hamper crude oil exports and joint counterterror operations.
- Such a delight being on @europeanspod.bsky.social talking about (my ongoing obsession with) Russian paramilitaries whose presence in the Sahel, Central African Republic and (allegedly) Equatorial Guinea is likely to return to the spotlight as Ukraine and Russia try to strike a fragile peace deal.
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- Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are persisting in overtures to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to reconsider their stance on ECOWAS. How is the Alliance of Sahel States challenging legacy institutions? @cnzuki.bsky.social and I discuss on @csis.org Africa's Afropolitan pod www.csis.org/podcasts/afr...
- Kenya - now at the helm of the East African Community - has sought to increase its influence in the bloc through economic initiatives. For @csis.org Africa, I co-wrote a paper looking at how DR Congo's security crisis in the east has challenged and shaped these efforts.
- Mali's authorities project that they will raise $1.2bn by March from settling disputes with mining companies triggered by changes to the sector's regulations. They are also increasing taxes in the telecom sector to meet revenue demands. Brief comments from me in @economist.com econ.st/4hNxCgp
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- DR Congo's army and gov't have been further weakened as M23 rebels backed by Rwanda seized Bukavu. For @firstpost.bsky.social I highlight the regional fallout as the war in the east draws in neighbouring countries, the subregion amid inaction by the international community youtu.be/i_1MoMXnEZk?...
- If you see this, quote with flowers from your gallery #bloomscrolling (Also what we left to begin blooming in Kenya because we are still rooted to home)
- US-Africa ties are likely to become more transactional in the coming years amid reports that the new administration plans to cut aid and impose tariffs on trade rivals. Spoke to @aljazeeraenglish.bsky.social about how this may impact geopolitical alignments and supply chains youtu.be/bIyaRuNm88Q?...
- Chad's presidential palace attack and Benin's deadliest militant raid underscore varied political and security risks that create a challenging, unpredictable operational environment. Spoke to @bloomberg.com TV about West and Central Africa's stability outlook www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
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- Chad calls out Macron for saying the quiet part out loud in reaction to the looming departure of French forces from Central and West Africa this year.
- West & Central African leaders are reshaping France's presence through nationalist policies that sustain their popular appeal, by reducing dependance on French forces and building resilient armies amid insurgencies and political fragility. I say more on @france24.com www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/...
- Côte d'Ivoire's announcement of French troops leaving is likely aimed at deterring perceptions of France influencing internal politics amid elections later this year, and shows confidence in the army's efforts in forestalling the Sahel insurgency as I highlight on Firstpost youtu.be/p0JIBjGljrQ?...
- As 2025 begins, Côte d'Ivoire becomes the latest to review its military ties with France. Will Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso - now the Alliance of Sahel States - perceive Abidjan with less mistrust as they prepare to officially leave ECOWAS and legitimise their confederation?
- Bashar al-Assad's fall is likely to have a ripple effect on Russian engagement in Africa as Syria was the backbone of paramilitary operations. I discuss alternative bases and likely disruptions in the CAR and Sahel with @kasujja.bsky.social on BBC's Africa Daily pod www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
- Burkina Faso produced its first gold bars earlier in December as it aims to assert greater economic empowerment through its extractives sector. I spoke to TRT TV about the symbolism of this for the sovereigntist junta and how the insurgency continues to impair development youtu.be/LBSgTpR65u4?...
- Ecowas has given Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso a six-month grace period to reconsider the Sahel-exit, while the AES has said its region is open to West Africans as it needs to sustain its landlocked economy amid insurgencies and political instability. Here is some press on that:
- Earlier I spoke to the BBC's Newsday programme (reunion!) on why the AES was even formed in the first place and years of turbulence between Sahel military rulers and Ecowas: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...
- In the past week, at least 110 soldiers and 70 civilians have reportedly been killed in separate attacks linked to Islamic State in Niger's western Tillabéri region, demonstrating intent and capacity for high impact ambushes and sustained pressure on key supply routes leading to Niamey.
- Sooooo gonna watch this while closely reading the text for faithfulness
- Russia's setback in Syria has raised questions over its commitments in the Sahel and CAR. Some thoughts on the immediate pressure on paramilitaries amid uncertainty about supplies and how African gov'ts may supplement counterinsurgency and regime protection www.theafricareport.com/370967/expla...
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- Chad and Senegal are the latest Francophone African countries to re-align their relationship with France, underscoring how injustices by former colonial governments serve as a potent political force. My latest in @thecontinent.org with many thanks to @simonallison.bsky.social and @namlyd.bsky.social
