Sophie Hale
Principal Economist leading on trade and intergenerational fairness at the Resolution Foundation.
- New report published assesses the UK’s growth challenge 18 months into the current Parliament, examining how economic performance has evolved since the pandemic and evaluating the Government’s progress against its central mission to raise growth. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
- The UK’s growth problem is immense. GDP per person is just 0.8% higher than before the pandemic - meaning the economy took 6 years to grow what used to take ~7 months based on pre-pandemic growth trends.
- This isn’t just a global slowdown. The UK has fallen behind its peers. With post-pandemic, employment growth no longer making up for weak productivity in the UK. And this has left UK GDP per person just behind Italy, having been 8 per cent higher before the pandemic.
-
View full threadThe report sets out 3 key areas the Government could and should be bolder: trade, housing policy and labour-market participation. And you can rewatch today's event on this report, where we heard from Sir John Kingman and Dr Catherine Thomas here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/kicki...
- ONS monthly trade data today shows exports grew 5.2% in October, thanks to a strong monthly rebound in US exports. Imports grew just 1.5% and services trade growth was once again almost zero.
- So as shown below, there was strong monthly growth in non-EU goods exports (up 8.6%). Goods exports (excl. precious metals) to the EU and goods imports from both the EU and non-EU all grew 1-2% on the month. The value of services trade remained largely flat on the month before.
- Monthly non-EU goods export growth was driven by a rebound in US trade (+27%) - notably in chemicals (+75%) and cars (+100%). But as shown, exports in both sectors remain below Oct-2024 levels. And total US exports in 3 months ending Oct-2025 remain 13% below 2024 levels.
-
View full threadSo while a monthly rebound in US exports drives a tick up in UK exports in October, big picture is US exports remain depressed in 2025. And worryingly, instead of acting as a stabiliser to disrupted goods trade, the slowdown in services exports has continued in October.
- Reposted by Sophie Hale📻 Coming up at 4pm today on BBC Radio 4 CPC-CG Director @janefalkingham.bsky.social @uosmedia.bsky.social will discuss #intergenerational #economic justice, with CPC-CG's @sophiehale.bsky.social @resolutionfoundation.org, + @bobbyduffy.bsky.social & @xiaoweixu.bsky.social @theifs.bsky.social ⬇️⬇️
- Reposted by Sophie HaleInevitably, there are already arguments that the Chancellor should cut welfare spending instead of raising taxes tomorrow. But is welfare spending really 'out of control'? Here's the facts: www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-w...
- Quarterly trade data out this morning. Goods exports were down 0.7% compared to Q2, with weak USA exports certainly contributing. In addition, services trade growth seems to have slowed, with growth of just 0.2%.
- The value of Q3 goods exports fell 0.7% compared to Q2, and this was due to particularly weak non-EU trade which fell 1.5% (while exports to the EU were largely flat). Services trade growth was also relatively weak, with both imports and exports inching up around 0.2%.
- Services exports have been the clear hero in the UK trade story post-Brexit. And so slowing services trade growth is worrying - average quarterly growth has been just 1% so far in 2025 vs 4% in 2024.
-
View full threadThe spotlight is on how UK goods exports are reacting to US tariffs — and so far, the answer is: pretty badly. But the quieter, equally important story is the cooling in services trade. Both shifts matter for the UK’s increasingly fragile trade mix, and must not be overlooked.
- Research from Yale Budget Lab looks at the impact of US tariffs. As expected, it finds the UK does relatively well. But it goes further suggesting the UK economy will be about 0.1% larger in the long run. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
- As shown below, the UK has ended up with relatively low tariffs - our starting point was ok (we don't run a big goods deficit with the US) and the UK-US deal took off some of the sector-specific sharp edges. Only Canada faces lower tariffs by October.
- The UK’s relative strength makes sense: UK is heavy on unaffected services trade and lower goods barriers mean possible gains from trade shifts — cheaper imports once bound for the US and an export edge into the US market.
-
View full threadThe idea that the UK benefits is plausible — but unlikely, for two reasons: 1. It likely underestimates US capacity and intent to onshore, given other active policies to pull investment home. 2. UK firms need to believe these tariff advantages are lasting — a risky bet.
- Research showing rising US wealth inequality across age groups: the wealth of households aged 75 and over increased from 5 percent above the overall average in 1983 to 16 percent above it in 2007, then continued to rise to 55 percent above by 2022. www.nber.org/papers/w34131
- On the other hand, the average net worth of households under 35 slipped from 21 percent of the overall mean in 1983 to 17 percent in 2007 to 16 percent in 2022.
- This aligns with what my colleague @simonpittaway found in the UK, where wealth has also become much more unequally shared between young and old. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
- In 2018-20, median wealth among Britons in their 60s was 55 per cent higher in real terms than among those of the same age in 2006-08, whereas median wealth for those in their 30s was a third (34 per cent) lower.
- Monthly trade data for August showed a fall in goods exports, flat goods imports and some services trade growth. A very brief look at the trends in the data below:
- The value of goods exports fell by 3.3% in August, driven by a substantial monthly fall in EU goods exports (down 5.3%). The value of imports was flat, with growth in EU imports matched by the fall in non-EU imports. But services trade, both exports and imports, grew in August.
- 3m on 3m goods export growth has dried up in recent months after a strong start to the year - related to US tariff policy and rising global trade tensions. But it is clear goods exports growth has been generally weak across the last couple of year.
-
View full threadSo trade generally looking weak in August, with goods exports falling and services growth remaining weaker than last year.
- Exciting news: I’m back from maternity leave👶and so I'm diving straight in with today’s July 2025 trade data release. But after a few months away, I’ll also step back to see how trade has evolved so far this year.
- Starting with monthly trade volumes, total goods (excluding precious metals) exports grew by 5.2%, driven mainly by non-EU growth. Goods imports also grew by 4.1%. Services trade on the other hand was weak in July, with exports falling by 0.4% on the June.
- But taking a step back to look at year to date where does this leave us? Despite the growth in July, goods export volumes are down 1% on last year. Meanwhile services export volumes have grown 5.5% and imports by 8.2%.
-
View full threadSo overall July trade looked steady, but the big picture: already weak goods exports + high trade uncertainty = trouble. The extent to which the US deal can alleviate this is still to be seen.
- Still a week left to apply for this fantastic opportunity to work at the Resolution Foundation!
- 🚨 We're hiring!🚨 🏠 We're looking for a thoughtful and committed individual to lead our work on housing🏠 To find out more➡️ buff.ly/gpUx9o2
- Reposted by Sophie Hale🚨 New Research🚨 In the sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, part of the @ConnectingGens research programme, @mollybroome.bsky.social , @sophiehale.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social evaluate the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges. ➡️ buff.ly/4hYPPb9
- Reposted by Sophie Hale[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Sophie Hale‼️New report out today 'Trading blows' with @sophiehale.bsky.social We reflect on the UK's trade landscape post-Brexit and Covid - e.g. that exports of some highly regulated professional services – like accounting & tax, engineering, and legal – are growing slower than the average service sector.
- Reposted by Sophie Hale[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Sophie Hale[Not loaded yet]
