Emanuele Bevacqua
Climate scientist • Physicist • Group leader @ufz_de • Compound weather/climate extreme events • 🎨 • ❄️ • he/him
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- Indeed, it was a pleasure to contribute to this course with content on extreme events, climate change, and attribution science. Now it’s time for the examination! :)
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- 🔥🌍 In a new paper led by Sifang Feng, we find a growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in weekly regional fire extremes. 📈 On average, climate change was responsible for a fraction equal to 8 ± 4% of the predicted probability of more than 700 fire extremes worldwide between 2002 and 2015.
- 📊 Warming was the main driver, but precipitation, humidity, and wind changes either enhanced or counteracted warming effects in many regions. 📄 Paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science www.nature.com/articles/s41... or rdcu.be/eiYcp @natureportfolio.nature.com @compoundnet.bsky.social
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- Great job opportunity in Graz, check it out!
- Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua2024 was the first year to see global average temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Has the Paris Agreement goal already bitten the dust? www.newscientist.com/article/2467...
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- In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social
- The year 2024 was announced as the first calendar year to exceed 1.5 °C of global warming by several international organisations that independently track the global temperature, with a multi-dataset mean of 1.55 °C.
- However, the implications for the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C goal are unclear because the goal is understood to refer to temperature averaged over a 20-30 year period to account for natural short-term variability.
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View full threadThe results in both papers depend on how CMIP6 models capture relevant climate processes over the next decade or so. See Discussion and bsky.app/profile/clim... Work @ufz.de together with @carlschleussner.bsky.social and @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
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- We are delighted to announce the "Compound weather and climate events" session at #EGU25! We look forward to receiving your exciting abstracts! @compoundnet.bsky.social
- Do you remember the extreme #drought in Europe in 2022? Our @naturegeosci.bsky.social paper shows that human-induced global warming contributed to 31% of the intensity, with 14–41% of such contribution due to warming-driven soil drying that occurred before 2022. rdcu.be/dXA1S 1/n
- Combining observations and climate models with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central-Southern Europe saw the highest total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably the most extreme soil moisture deficit in 60 years. 2/n
- While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. Qualitatively similar effects occurred for the extremely low river discharges. 3/n
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View full threadThanks to all coauthors! Oldrich Rakovec, Dominik L. Schumacher, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Sonia I. Seneviratne & Jakob Zscheischler Apologies for crossposting! It is a particular period with social networks!
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